Pitcher Regression Candidates for 2026

Over the last couple weeks, I've taken a look at regression and rebound candidates among position players. We're now turning our attention to the mound, first to examine pitchers that could take a step back in 2026.

Nick Pivetta, SP, Padres

Pivetta finally got out of a hitter-friendly home park in 2025, and the result was the best season of the soon-to-be 33-year-old's career. The right-hander went 13-5 while collecting a 2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 190:50 K:BB over 181.2 innings covering 31 regular-season starts for the Padres, numbers good enough to make him the No. 11 starting pitcher in fantasy, per RotoWire's Earned Auction Values.

Pivetta did not make any major repertoire changes in his first year in San Diego. His 48.5 percent usage on his four-seamer was actually exactly the same year-over-year, and it was again his most effective offering, garnering a plus-21 run value per Baseball Savant. That was the fourth-highest grade of any pitch in 2025 and the second-ranked four-seamer behind only Ryne Nelson. Pivetta's 93.8 mph velocity on the pitch is ordinary, but he throws from an extremely high arm slot, gets excellent extension and above-average spin. He's also a master at relentlessly pounding the upper regions of the strike zone with his four-seamer.

When you rely heavily on a four-seamer and make your living at the top of the strike zone, you're going to be a flyball-heavy pitcher who deals with home run issues. From 2017 (Pivetta's first season) to 2024, there were 27 pitchers to tally at least 1,000 innings, and out of those 27, none of them had a higher HR/9 rate than Pivetta's 1.53 mark. It wasn't remotely close, either.

In 2025, Pivetta's HR/9 was 1.09, which ranked 28th out of 52 qualifiers and was actually below the league average of 1.2. His HR/FB rate from 2017-2024 was 15.5 percent before falling to 9.7 percent in 2025. Sure, there's an element of luck involved, but the improvement was largely a reflection of Pivetta calling a pitcher-friendly park home for the first time in his career. He surrendered nine home runs over 103 innings at Petco Park in 2025, as compared to 13 homers allowed in 78.2 frames away from home. Pivetta also boasted a 2.36 ERA and 0.86 WHIP at home, with a 3.55 ERA and 1.14 WHIP on the road.

Expecting Pivetta to turn in a sub-3.00 ERA again in 2026 is a stretch, but I don't think he's in any danger of reverting to the guy who never had an ERA below 4.04 prior to last season. He had a 3.49 FIP and 3.69 SIERA in 2025, and a mid-3s ERA in 2026 sounds about right.

Cade Horton, SP, Cubs

Shoulder issues in 2024 limited Horton to just 34.1 minor-league innings, and in his five Triple-A starts that year he held a 7.50 ERA. After returning to Triple-A Iowa to begin the 2025 season, Horton earned a promotion to the big leagues following a 1.24 ERA in six outings. The right-hander went on to collect a 2.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 97:33 K:BB across 118 frames with the big club, picking up 11 wins along the way. It made Horton the No. 33 starting pitcher in fantasy, and he finished runner-up to Drake Baldwin in the National League Rookie of the Year voting.

Horton had little trouble piling up strikeouts in the minors, fanning 190 across 151.2 innings with a 31.7 percent strikeout rate. That he finished with just a 20.4 percent strikeout rate for the Cubs was a surprise, and it's why his ERA indicators were much worse than his actual ERA. Some level of improvement in the strikeout department in 2026 is a fair expectation, however. Horton collected a 37.6 percent whiff rate with his slider and 47.8 percent whiff rate with his changeup. His 25.8 percent whiff rate on all pitches ranked in the 54th percentile, but his strikeout rate was in just the 33rd percentile. The gap between those numbers will likely close this season.

Horton went on quite a run in the second half, going 8-1 with a 1.03 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 54:15 K:BB over 61.1 innings. He was legitimately better after the All-Star break, posting a 23.5 percent strikeout rate as compared to a 17.5 percent strikeout rate before the break. That said, it was comical how much luck Horton also had on his side.

The Cubs had an elite defensive team last season, which allowed pitchers up and down their roster to outperform their ERA indicators. As things stand right now, they'll be replacing Matt Shaw with Alex Bregman at third base and Kyle Tucker with Seiya Suzuki in right field. That's a clear upgrade at third base, and while it will probably be a bit of a downgrade in right field, it could be minor with Tucker's defense declining in recent years. Overall, it certainly looks like a net improvement, which means the Cubs' defense could be even better in 2026.

ERA regression for Horton is obvious, but with an elite defense behind him and perhaps more strikeouts in the tank, I don't think he'll fall off as much as many are predicting. Horton is being taken outside the top-200 picks in NFBC drafts over the past month, which feels like a nice buying opportunity.

Carlos Estevez, RP, Royals

Estevez led all of baseball with 42 saves in 2025. However, of all the sure-fire closers entering the 2026 campaign, he might be the likeliest candidate to lose his job first.

Estevez finished with a strikeout rate of just 20.1 percent last season, which looks more like the strikeout rate of a No. 5 starter rather than the league's saves leader. It was accompanied by a 19 percent whiff rate that ranked in the eighth percentile. Not a single one of Estevez's three pitches — four-seamer, slider and changeup — had a whiff rate of even 20 percent. In his first eight major-league seasons, among pitches that Estevez threw more than six times, he had a whiff rate of below 20 percent just once, and that came during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season on his third-most used pitch, the changeup. 

That's one pitch out of 28 from 2016 to 2024 that had a sub-20 percent whiff rate. In 2025, all three were sub-20 percent.

Estevez is also an extreme flyball pitcher who took advantage of having the home run suppressing Kauffman Stadium as his home yard, having allowed just one long ball in 36 appearances there. However, the Royals are altering the dimensions at Kauffman ahead of the 2026 season, bringing the fences in 9-10 feet from the power alleys almost to the foul poles, as well as shortening the walls from 10 feet to 8.5 feet. Guys like Bobby Witt and Vinnie Pasquantino should get a boost from this, but the change is bad for their pitchers, especially for a hurler like Estevez who was already risky.

The Royals' bullpen isn't loaded with great options to replace Estevez. Lucas Erceg's strikeout rate (19.3 percent) was even lower than Estevez's in 2025 and he finished the season on the injured list with a shoulder issue. That said, Erceg's velocity, while down a tick, was still in the 92nd percentile, and he's a groundball pitcher who shouldn't be affected as much by the Kauffman Stadium changes. The Royals also brought back old friend Matt Strahm via trade, though Strahm is even more of an extreme flyball pitcher than Estevez.

Estevez's ADP in NFBC drafts has fallen back a bit since news of the Kauffman changes came out, but he's still going inside the top 100 picks. Don't be the one to take him that early.