MLB Futures: AL Rookie of the Year Odds

The future is more than bright for Kevin McGonigle, and Michael Rathburn has his eye on the Tigers prospect in the race for the AL Rookie of the Year award.

March 2, 2026

By:

Michael Rathburn

March 2, 2026

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MLB Futures: AL Rookie of the Year Odds

As the 2026 MLB regular season approaches, the race for the AL Rookie of the Year Award is taking shape.

The favorite to take home the trophy is Trey Yesavage (+370), who burst onto the scene for the Blue Jays in the second half of 2025 and made a strong impression in the postseason. The rest of the field contains the likes of Munetaka Murakami (+600), Kazuma Okamoto (+600), Tatsuya Imai (+850), Carter Jensen (+600), Kevin McGonigle (+900) and Samuel Basallo (+1000)

AL Rookie of the Year Odds

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

PLAYER	TEAM	POSITION	ODDS	PROJECTED ROLE
Trey Yesavage	TOR	P	370	#3 Starter
Carter Jensen	KC	C	600	#7 Hitter
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	1B/DH	600	#4 Hitter
Kazuma Okamoto	TOR	1B/3B	600	#7 Hitter
Tatsuya Imai	HOU	P	850	#3 Starter
Kevin McGonigle	DET	SS	900	Potential starting SS; Top-5 Prospect
Samuel Basallo	BAL	C/1B	1000	#8 Hitter
Dylan Beavers	BAL	OF	1300	#5 Hitter
Connelly Early	BOS	P	1400	Should start in Triple-A
Chase DeLauter	CLE	CF	2000	#6 Hitter
Colt Emerson	SEA	IF	2200	Should start in Triple-A
Travis Bazzana	CLE	2B	2200	Should start in Triple-A
Payton Tolle	BOS	P	2200	Should start in Triple-A
Walker Jenkins	MIN	OF	2500	Should start in Triple-A
Carson Williams	TB	SS	4500	Should start in Triple-A
Spencer Jones	NYY	OF	5000	Should start in Triple-A
Brice Matthews	HOU	SS	5000	Should start in Triple-A
Max Clark	DET	OF	5500	Should start in Triple-A

The MLB season is around the corner, and you can get ahead of the game with the sportsbook promos and sports betting apps.

AL Rookie of the Year History

2025 – Nick Kurtz, Oakland Athletics
2024 – Luis Gil, New York Yankees
2023 – Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
2022 – Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
2021 – Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
2020 – Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners
2019 – Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
2018 – Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
2017 – Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
2016 – Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers

AL Rookie of the Year Benchmarking

Rookie of the Year bets are drastically different than MVP or Cy Young plays because we are dealing with so much unknown. The criteria shifts away from metrics and more towards volume.

40% Playing Time Certainty
25% Box Score Potential
15% Positional Edge
10% Team Context
10% Timeline/Eligibility Risk

AL Rookie of the Year Pick

Kevin McGonigle, SS (+900)

When we look back on this rookie class down the road, I expect McGonigle will be the best player. He comes in with the best pedigree and plays for the American League Central favorite. Zach McKinstry is the only player standing in his way, and even if the Tigers send him toTriple-A he should soon force his way to Detroit.

If you think McGonigle will break camp with a 25-man roster spot, make this play right away. If you think he starts the season in Triple-A, wait and grab the number if it drifts into the +1500 range.

AL Rookie of the Year Candidates

Munetaka Murakami, 1B (+600)

Murakami has a lot going for him -- he will be playing in a big market with a prominent role in the lineup and brings 30-homer power. There is some risk with the adjustment to MLB and the positional penalty, but he makes for a solid second piece of a three-player futures portfolio.

Tatsuya Imai, SP (+850)

Imai's landing spot in Houston is ideal for his chances given the club's track record of developing pitchers. He has a clear role as the No. 3 starter. There is risk in taking a pitcher, but he is further down the board and the unit adjustment below takes that into consideration.

AL Rookie of the Year Long Shots

Consider these players only if they make the Opening Day roster or are called up during the regular season.

Travis Bazzana 2B (+2200)

The current projected starting second baseman for the Guardians is Brayan Rocchio. I think Bazzana will open at Triple-A, but he could move up around May 1 if he is tearing the cover off the ball.

He was the top overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and Cleveland handed him a signing bonus of $9 million. He does not project as a superstar, but he should be a solid everyday major-leaguer.

Carson Williams SS (+4500)

Williams also has some pedigree as a first-round pick of the Rays in 2021. He has slowly progressed up the organizational depth chart and got 32 games in the big leagues last season. He had a 41-percent strikeout rate at the top level, which is alarming. Keep an eye on the whiffs in Triple-A once the season starts.

Connelly Early SP (+1400)

Early got called up in September and posted a sterling 29:4 K:BB over 19.1 innings. He showed tremendous poise and control for a rookie, but the Red Sox added to their starting rotation over the offseason to give thir younger starters more experience at the Triple-A level. Early only racked up 28.2 Triple-A innings last season, so some more seasoning couldn't hurt. But if there is an injury in the rotation, he will most likely be the first pitcher plucked.

AL Rookie of the Year Fade

Trey Yesavage, SP (+370)

There is a reason I listed the last 10 AL Rookie of the Year winners, because you can see not many pitchers win the award. This is why Yesavage finds himself here. There are too many things that can go wrong with pitchers -- workload, health, run support, narrative -- to feel good about him as a favorite.