MLB Picks Today: Best MLB Bets 5/3

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Updated on May 3, 2022 12:33PM EST

Previous article 5-3 +2.57

Season 34-30 +13.9

Its was a bittersweet Friday night for my MLB betting as I nailed the Mets/Phillies which ended up being a no-hitter, but the Giants got destroyed which also wrecked the four-team parlay again. I think that is my 3rd 3-1 4 teamer this year. But you have to keep firing away at those because hitting one just puts you so far ahead on the units game. I am looking at tinkering with three teamers if they get me close to the 10x payout.

As I have said from day one, continue to pound the unders and avoid strikeout props. Focus on the bad teams and take advantage of soft lines on their team totals. Oddsmakers have adjusted game run totals down by at least 0.5 runs across the board, but the team totals can still be exploited. Also, keep track of line moves, especially on totals. They are being adjusted aggressively during the day as more information comes available.

You might notice that I have been doing a lot of two bets on games. I don't plan that on purpose, it is just the way the landscape is right now in baseball betting. We have a lot of bad teams in a very suppressed home run environment. This is leading to less close games, so the -1.5 run line is becoming more attractive. With home runs down -25% in April this year vs. last year, teams that have more consistent deeper lineups that draw walks and have high contact rates are the ones thriving.

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles 7:05 pm EDT

Joe Ryan vs. Bruce Zimmermann

The changes made at Camden Yards have been significant and even more than everyone expected. This has become a great under play until the oddsmakers make more adjustments down on the totals.

Ryan has looked great in his last three starts and the average score in 10 Orioles home games has been 3.0-2.6 (5.6 runs).

MLB Best Bets for Twins-Orioles

Under 7 for 1.05 RW buck (-105 FanDuel)

Twins -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+105 DraftKings)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox 7:10 pm EDT

Noah Syndergaard vs. Michael Wacha

This total opened at 9.0 and moved to 8.5 and 8.0 in some spots. The Red Sox are not hitting right now and Shohei Ohtani is most likely going to miss tonight's game. Both starting pitchers have looked good early on this season, so I like the under and I also like the Red Sox as a home dog. It doesn't happen often but I think we are getting an overreaction in the market.

MLB Best Bets for Angels-Red Sox

Red Sox to win for 1 RW buck (+110 FanDuel)

Under 8.5 runs (playable at 8) for 1.1 RW buck (DraftKings -110)

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers 7:40 pm EDT

Tyler Mahle vs. Brandon Woodruff

I mentioned it in the first week of the season and will continue to do so. Bet against the Reds at all costs until we start seeing -300. They are headed for one of the worst records in MLB history and they still have some pieces to trade off so it will only get worse.

MLB Best Bets for Reds-Brewers

Brewers -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +100)

Under 7.5 runs for 1.2 RW buck (BetMGM -120)

Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies 8:40 pm EDT

Erick Fedde vs. German Marquez

Another one of my themes last year and this year is taking the Rockies at home. They get another bad team in the Nationals, who have actually put up some runs recently. But this team is bad, especially on the pitching side which is a bad mix in Coors Field.