This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Tuesday, August 27
- Year-to-Date Record: 140-140-1
- Prior Article: 2-1 (+0.94 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Consult RotoWire's MLB odds page before submitting your betting slip on the best sports betting sites to ensure you're taking advantage of the most competitive odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Kansas City Royals 
at Cleveland Guardians 
The Royals are on a mission for the playoffs and you have to commend their front office for the moves they made in the offseason and at the trade deadline. They are 7-3, 12-8 and 18-12 in their last 10/20/30 games. Their offense has struck out just 18 percent this month while hitting .282 and averaging 5.7 runs per game
The Guardians have been slumping and have seen their lead in the American League Central dwindle to just one game. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Neither starting pitcher has been great on the season, but Michael Lorenzen has a 2.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his last five starts. Gavin Williams has lasted only four innings in three out of his last four starts with an ERA of 7.36 and 1.64 WHIP.
My projections have this game closer to -100 to -110 for the Guardians giving the Royals a lot of value as a dog.
MLB Picks for Royals at Guardians
- Royals ML for 2 units (+134 FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Mets 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
A lot like the Royals in the previous game, the Diamondbacks are playing great baseball and have the best record in baseball for August, going 24-6 in their last 30 games. The line in this game is also confusing as I have the Diamondbacks at about -120 to -130. We are getting them at just over even money at -106.
The Diamondbacks are averaging 6.8 runs in their last 10 games, but the K:BB numbers are mind blowing. They are striking out 17 percent, but walking 14 percent. Arizona is on a six-game winning streak and has a 37-26 record at home. They are just too much for the Mets right now
MLB Picks for Mets at Dbacks
- Diamondbacks ML for 1.5 units (-106 FanDuel FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves 
at Minnesota Twins 
The first thing I look at in handicapping baseball games is the starting pitching matchup. If there is a significant edge on an underdog pitcher or one that is close to even, that represents value.
The Braves have a significant edge in pitching tonight with Spencer Schwellenbach against Simeon Woods Richardson (this might have the most letters for one game on both starting pitchers?). Schwellenbach has come into his own with 53 strikeouts and just five walks in his last six starts.
MLB Picks for Braves at Twins
- Braves ML for 1 unit (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Royals ML for 2 units (+134 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Diamondbacks ML for 1.5 units (-106 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Braves ML for 1 unit -110 (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)
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