The final weekend before the All-Star break kicks off with 12 MLB games on the DFS docket for Friday, with the first pitch of the evening arriving at 7:05 p.m. ET. You have many choices, all-stars and otherwise, for your DFS lineup, and so I have some recommendations to help you make your decisions. Good luck Friday!
Pitching
Parker Messick, CLE at MIA ($9,200): Messick impressed last season, posting a 2.72 ERA and 0.91 HR/9 rate, but it was only seven starts. Well, this year he's made 18 starts and he has a 2.80 ERA and 0.76 HR/9 rate, so he looks legit to me. Though the Marlins are above-average in terms of runs scored, they are also heavy on southpaws, and Messick is left-handed himself.
Sonny Gray, BOS at NYM ($8,800): Gray's strikeouts are down, but so is his line-drive rate, while his groundball rate is decidedly up. If that's built upon an intentional tweak to his approach, it's panned out, as Gray has a 2.61 ERA, and an 1.97 ERA over his last seven outings. Though a recent scoring surge has the Mets threatening to escape the bottom 10 in runs scored, they are still stuck in the bottom five in team OPS.
Robbie Ray, SFG vs. COL ($6,800): Ray has a 3.45 ERA all in all, but a 2.50 ERA at home because the ball stays in the park in San Francisco. On the flip side, the Rockies are in the top 10 in runs scored, but of course benefit from their home ballpark. If this game was in Colorado, I would not recommend Ray, even at this salary. In San Francisco, though, Ray is worth a shot.
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Top Targets
For whatever reason, suddenly the last couple seasons Pete Alonso ($5,700) has significant splits. However, they are not what one might expect, as Alonso has been much better against his fellow righties and fallen off against southpaws. This year he's slugged .527 against righties and hit 17 of his 20 homers in those matchups. Luinder Avila is a righty, and he has a 5.05 ERA moving between the bullpen and the rotation, and righties have hit .273 against him as well.
The 16 homers and eight stolen bases from Andy Pages ($5,400) both track, and he also already has 21 doubles through 93 games. Pages also loves being at home, as he has hit .296 and slugged .520 at Dodger stadium (I went average over OBP because he doesn't walk a ton). Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.25 ERA even though he has a 6.17 K/9 rate and 4.00 FIP. Hey, you do that for 18 starts and I give you credit, but he's a lefty and he's maybe doing it a bit with smoke and mirrors. I'll take a shot on Pages at home.
Bargain Bats
With Colson Montgomery ($4,400), it's all about homers. He's played in 159 MLB games and he's hit 44 home runs. That'll work with a shortstop, especially since he also has 16 doubles this season. Aaron Civale has had a disastrous campaign at home, but he still has an 1.8 HR/9 rate on the road. Plus, lefties have hit a robust .326 against him.
Over the last three weeks, Trevor Larnach ($4,200) has a .984 OPS. He basically doesn't play against lefties, but he has an .835 OPS against righties. Grayson Rodriguez has only made six starts this season, but he has an 8.06 ERA and lefties have knocked him around to the tune of a .357 batting average.
Stacks to Consider
Rays vs. Mariners (Luis Castillo): Junior Caminero ($6,000), Jonathan Aranda ($5,100), Chandler Simpson ($3,800)
Castillo has been better of late, but he has a 4.40 ERA on the road this season. As such, for the third season in a row he's primed to finish with an away ERA over 4.00. Seattle has a pitcher-friendly ballpark, so it is fair to feel like away from home Castillo isn't the same guy even in better times. This year both righties and lefties have hit .255 against him, but in the past, lefties have hit him decidedly better, so I have two southpaws in this stack.
Over the last three weeks, Caminero has an 1.097 OPS. Also, he has an 1.035 OPS at home on the campaign. Both of those things bode well Friday. In addition to a .387 OBP, Aranda has 13 homers and 14 doubles. He doesn't have quite the power of Caminero, but when facing righties he's slugged .504. Simpson has pretty much no power, but he does have speed. He's hit .277 with six triples and 22 stolen bases in 86 games. That's not what we expected from him on the bases, but it's not too shabby.
Angels at Twins (Zebby Matthews): Mike Trout ($5,600), Nolan Schanuel ($2,700), Wade Meckler ($2,600)
Matthews has a 4.43 ERA, but a 5.09 FIP. This from a guy with a career 5.41 ERA. Also, while his home ERA this season is 2.08, his career home ERA is 5.45, so that feels like a fluke apropos of nothing. Not only that, but he made seven starts in Triple-A this year and had a 4.72 ERA, which doesn't speak to a pitcher that is terribly good. Though the Angels lack for impact bats from the left side of the plate, I did work in two southpaws since lefties have hit .294 against Matthews in his career.
Trout hit a home run in his first game back from his latest injury, which is a good sign. He's been better against his fellow righties for a few seasons now, posting an .857 OPS in those matchups since 2024. A first baseman with only six home runs doesn't wow, but Schanuel does add 16 doubles in 74 games. Additionally, he's hit .278 against righties this year, and if I want southpaws against Matthews, I kind of have to include him. Meckler returned to MLB after years of absence and has hit .284 with two homers, seven doubles and two stolen bases in 40 games. It's clear why he's spent a fair amount of time in the minors up to this point, because he is particularly bad against lefties. However, he has an .833 OPS against righties, and at this salary, anything he does in those opportunities will suffice.
