Twelve games make up FanDuel's main slate Friday evening, with games getting underway at the usual 7:05 p.m. EDT. Ten of the 24 listed starters are priced at $9,000 or greater, four of whom command a five-figure commitment. The Athletics appear to be rolling with an opener, cutting our options by one, but that's of minimal consequence.
Our normal ballparks to target are absent from the slate, but we've got an elevated 10.5 run total with Baltimore-Kansas City. Three additional games sit at 9.0 or 9.5, while two games offer a slate-low 7.5 total. As usual, the Dodgers (-255) are the slate's biggest favorite, followed by the White Sox (-166) and Braves (-164). We'll loosely need to monitor rain in New York, but overall, weather does not appear to be a factor Friday with no prevailing winds present.
Try our FanDuel MLB Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
Pitching
Hunter Brown, HOU at TEX ($9,800): Brown's current form makes him a GPP target only for me. But the Rangers lineup isn't overly feared, and we know Globe Life Field's propensity to be a pitcher's park. Brown brings a 10.7 K/9 and 48.6 percent ground ball rate into Friday against a Texas team with a league-average 100 wRC+ and 42.5 percent ground ball rate off righties. Keep the ball on the ground, limit walks to increase longevity, and Brown can deliver some upside.
Robbie Ray, SF vs. COL ($9,200): Simply, Colorado is the worst offense in the league against lefties; carrying an 80 wRC+ and 26.1 percent K rate into Friday. Ray is surging somewhat, earning four-straight quality starts, which comes after six consecutive outings where he failed to reach six innings. He's faced the Rockies twice, both times in Denver, allowing four runs across 10.0 innings with 10 Ks. With better splits at home, Ray appears in line to continue his current form and be viable for both cash and GPP lineups.
Shota Imanaga, CHC at CIN ($8,600): Imanaga had a rough late-May through mid-June stretch, but appears to be somewhat righting his ship, allowing nine runs over his last five starts. I wish the price was slightly lower, and given this is in Great American Ballpark, it's a bit of a risk to trust him here. The target is strikeouts, which the Reds should oblige, as they fan 24.9 percent of the time against lefties. He faced them at home back on May 7, allowing just a solo homer while striking out 10 in 6.0 innings. Current Reds are 10-for-58 (.172) with a .641 OPS and 27.7 percent K rate.
Top Targets
The elevated total in Baltimore suggests a game stack, but I'm struggling to find the right entry points. Neither Luinder Avila or Brandon Young have been awful, and there don't appear to be enough hitters currently smashing balls for me to go all in. As such, maybe it's just a day to start builds with Bobby Witt ($3,900) and/or Pete Alonso ($3,800) and move on.
If not for lefty Jacob Lopez' opening, I'd have great interest in a boom or bust White Sox stack. Aaron Civale is allowing a .414 wOBA to lefties overall, but how many at bats will Munetaka Murakami ($3,500) or Colson Montgomery ($3,400) get against him? The elevated run total and Chicago being favored suggests someone is going deep.
Seiya Suzuki ($3,400) is sort of priced in no-mans land. Perhaps his day-to-day tag leaves him overlooked. He's 8-for-18 (.444) with two homers and three doubles off Hunter Greene and has homered in consecutive games. Michael Harris ($3,400) doesn't have the BvP history but is priced identically and surging, riding a nine-game hitting streak (16 hits total).
Bargain Bats
Lane Thomas ($2,600) may be the exception in this Royals-Orioles matchup. He's riding a seven-game hitting streak, scoring six times and driving in seven.
Rafael Devers ($3,100) remains a mainstay for me. He's hitting .326 with six homers over his last 13 and is 3-for-5 with two homers off Tanner Gordon.
Teoscar Hernandez ($3,100) is a nice BvP play, going 10-for-28 (.357) with three homers and three doubles off Eduardo Rodriguez but isn't swinging it well recently, hitting just .129 over his last 31 ABs.
Jim Jarvis ($2,100) can work as a complete punt play. He figures to be in the lineup against a righty and has five hits in his last four. Hitting ninth, he can turn the lineup over and benefit from the top of the order behind him.
Stacks to Consider
Twins vs. Grayson Rodriguez (Angels): Kody Clemens ($3,300), Josh Bell ($3,200), Trevor Larnach ($2,900)
Rodriguez showed mild signs of life before again landing on the IL, but he's not someone we should shy away from. And making his first stat back from injury, there seems plenty of reason to expect the Twins to get plenty of hacks against the Angels bullpen that ranks 23rd with a 4.57 ERA, as their 5.4 run expectancy suggests. Clemens is a nice stand-alone play given his position flexibility, and he's hitting .375 with seven RBI and six runs across his last six. He sits with a .363 wOBA and 133 wRC+ off righties. Larnach has cooled over the last week but is fractionally better at .364/133 off righties. Bell gives us a third top-of-order piece with run production potential.
Padres vs. Shane Bieber (Blue Jays): Fernando Tatis ($3,200), Jackson Merrill ($3,000), Manny Machado ($3,000)
Bieber is still attempting to find his groove, so I'm willing to bet against that happening in his final start before the break for a relatively cheap upside stack. He's allowed 13 runs and six homers across 13.0 innings, and the splits suggest we can target freely from either side of the plate. We know Tatis remains void of power, but he's hitting .321 over his last seven and is a willing runner, boosting potential. Machado remains boom or bust, so we're chasing a long ball here, something he did last night, giving him five in his last 13. Merrill gives us a third top-of-the-order piece who has three multi-hit games in his last seven. Keep an eye on the lineup card here, as Jake Cronenworth ($2,600) could offer value if the Padres move his left-handed bat up in the order.
