This is not your typical Thursday in MLB, as the All-Star break is looming. In fact, even with all the afternoon games not included in the slate, there are still eight games on the DFS docket starting at 6:35 p.m. ET or later. A lot of Thursdays don't even have eight games full stop. So, with more choices than normal for a Thursday, maybe my MLB DFS lineup recommendations will be that much more beneficial to you.
Pitching
Jesus Luzardo, PHI at CIN ($9,000): At home, Luzardo has had his issues, but on the road he has an 1.54 ERA. He also has a 10.89 K/9 rate, which is good for this matchup. In addition to being in the bottom eight in runs scored, the Reds are 28th in strikeouts.
Reid Detmers, LAA at TEX ($8,300): Sure, Detmers' 4.13 ERA is not remarkable, but he has a 3.08 FIP, a 3.44 K/BB ratio and a 0.77 HR/9 rate, and that all works for me. Additionally, Detmers has a 3.42 ERA on the road. The Rangers have a good park for pitchers, and they are in the bottom 10 in runs scored, both of which should benefit Detmers.
Top Targets
The hot bat for the Diamondbacks is Ketel Marte ($5,000). Over the last three weeks he has an 1.079 OPS with six homers and four stolen bases. This season he has been worse on the road, but that is not the norm, as he has had an OPS over .900 on the road in each of the last two campaigns. Griffin Canning has issues with walks and homers, which is a losing combination. Thus, he has a 6.71 ERA.
Most Padres have struggled, well, in general, but specifically at home. Fernando Tatis ($4,800) at least has an .808 OPS at home this year, and he's stolen 23 bases on the season. Merrill Kelly is having a horrendous season, as he has a 5.71 ERA and his fellow righties have hit .293 against him. Stacking Padres at Petco is perhaps too bold, but I did want one Padre in the mix.
Bargain Bats
Apparently Jake Bauers ($4,500) was just waiting to turn 30 to emerge as a hitter. His 16 homers are already a career high, his 15 doubles have him well on the pace to best his 22 that came when he was a rookie, and his .265 average has him pretty much locked into a personal best on that front as well. He's been strong against righties this season, but even in his less remarkable 2025 campaign he had a .769 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Andre Pallante has been really good on the road, but as has been common he's had issues at home. Over the last three seasons he has a 4.78 ERA in home outings.
If you can hide Kerry Carpenter ($3,900) away from lefties and get him in the Motor City, this is when he becomes "Kerry Bonds." Since 2024 he's slugged .546 against righties and .563 at home. Jack Perkins is a righty, and hopping in and out of the rotation and the bullpen he's posted a 5.69 ERA for the Athletics.
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Stacks to Consider
Phillies at Reds (Brady Singer): Kyle Schwarber ($6,400), Bryce Harper ($5,900), Bryson Stott ($4,300)
Singer has a 2.2 HR/9 rate at home, and lefties have hit .300 against him. Additionally, since 2024 lefties have hit 44 of the 61 homers that Singer has allowed. I have three lefties in this stack. You can figure out why, I assume.
Schwarber already has gotten to 30 home runs yet again. At this pace he should have no problem getting to 40 again, and possibly even 50. Oh, and he also has a .370 OBP, so it's not just elite power. Harper has 20 home runs, and he has multiple triples in a season for the first time since 2020. Maybe that's a fluke, but maybe it's a sign of how he's feeling physically. Harper has unusually struggled against lefties, but he has an 1.034 OPS against righties. Stott only has seven homers, so even for a second baseman he hasn't shown significant long-ball power. He does have four triples, 15 doubles and 16 stolen bases, though, and facing Singer gives him a better chance to hit a homer than he usually has.
Cubs at Orioles (Trevor Rogers): Seiya Suzuki ($4,200), Dansby Swanson ($4,200), Nico Hoerner ($3,800)
Turns out sometimes anomalous things are anomalous. Out of nowhere, Rogers had a stellar season with the Orioles last year. This season, though, his ERA is back up to 4.70. Rogers does still keep the ball in the park (0.96 HR/9 rate), but his walks are back up, and his strikeouts are way down. Now, the southpaw has still kept lefty hitters in check, but that's about it. Righties have hit .278 against him, and so I have three righties from the Cubs.
Suzuki won't get to 30 homers and 30 doubles again, but through 76 games he has 14 of the former and 12 of the latter. Since 2024 he has an .832 OPS against lefties, and while he has had some issues on the road this season, he has an .836 OPS on the road since 2024, so that could be a bit fluky. Swanson has an 1.193 OPS over the last three weeks, though a lot of his impact has been done over a few massive games. Hey, he's a shortstop with 16 homers who has slugged .485 against southpaws since 2024. Maybe he's in for another big game! Hoerner, on the other hand, has been somewhat cold of late, but he has 22 doubles and 14 stolen bases. He does have a tendency to struggle against his fellow righties, but he has an .846 OPS against lefties since 2024, so maybe this matchup can help him get on track.
