Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, July 9
MLB 2026 betting record: 22-32-1, -11.22 units
It's one of the busiest Thursdays of the MLB season, featuring 13 games, including several this evening.
I'm looking to exploit a pair of starting pitching mismatches and am recommending two player props as part of my top MLB best bets today.
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Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants Predictions and Best Bets
Ryan Feltner Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-112 FanDuel)
Feltner isn't doing anything overly impressive, but he's eating innings and that's all that matters for this bet. Of course, he needs to pitch well to work deep, and he has a good landing spot tonight to achieve that.
The right-hander is on the road at Oracle Park, one of the best pitching venues in all of baseball. Feltner has already shut down the Giants twice this season — working six innings in each outing — and both of those games came at Coors Field, his hitter-friendly stadium. Now he gets the Giants' unimposing offense in San Francisco, where the club hasn't hit the ball well.
Only two teams have hit fewer homers at home, and none has a lower on-base percentage than San Francisco (.300).
Not only does Feltner have a strong matchup, but he's been enjoying a solid stretch. Since coming off the injured list at the end of May, the 29-year-old has a 3.23 ERA over seven starts. You won't be impressed by the strikeout numbers (6.23 K/9), but Feltner did fan a season-high nine Giants in his last start after throwing six scoreless vs. them to kick off this run.
He's gone six innings in five post-IL outings and limited big damage by keeping the ball in the yard. And while Colorado starters have been helping out the bullpen by providing solid length — five-plus innings in six straight games — the Rockies are playing for the 14th straight day and end the first half with games in 17 consecutive days.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Predictions and Best Bets
Phillies -0.5 Runs, First 5 Innings (-118 BetMGM)
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105 BetMGM)
Jesus Luzardo's Baseball Savant page is a sea of red, helping reinforce how good he's been despite a 3.75 ERA. The hard-throwing lefty has put together some dominant performances, recording double-digit strikeouts three times this season and he's coming off a six-inning, one-run gem with nine punchouts.
The Phillies have won each of his last eight starts, covering the run line in six of those outings. Getting them to win by two or getting them to lead after five innings comes at essentially the same price if you're looking to avoid a -160/-170 price on them to win straight up. Because of the starting pitching matchup – and how volatile the Phillies' bullpen has been — my favorite way to back Philadelphia is through the first half of the game.
Luzardo is opposed by Brady Singer, who has a 4-10-3 F5 record, per Odds Shark, thanks to a 5.03 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. The righty enters with career-low velocity and a career-high home run rate against a team with dangerous left-handed bats at a tremendous hitter's park. It's asking a lot for Singer to outpitch Luzardo, whose Phillies have bashed the sixth-most homers in MLB and have one of the game's top road records.
Expecting offense from the Phillies against Singer, I'm targeting the power-hitting Harper. The veteran is batting .291 and slugging .623 off righties with 17 homers. His SLG vs. righties is his best mark since his 2021 MVP season.
Harper has been quiet in July, but still has a .913 OPS over the last month after hitting .305/.405/.589 in June. Left-handed hitters have accounted for 14 of the 20 homers Singer has surrendered, while slashing .300/.362/.548 off him.
Great American Ball Park has been a top-five offensive environment over the last three years, ranking as the No. 2 home run-hitting venue (per Baseball Savant's park factors).
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins Predictions and Best Bets
Mariners -0.5 Runs, First 5 Innings (-105 DraftKings)
Miami is sizzling, winning five in a row and 15 of its last 20 contests to move nine games over .500 and into an NL wild-card spot. In a truly remarkable turnaround, the club is 25-8 since June after posting losing records in both April and May.
The Marlins have the No. 2 offense, per wRC+, over the last 30 days and the fifth-best ERA. You could view them as excellent value today as a home underdog, but the problem is they're running into one of the hottest pitchers in the game.
Seattle is deploying Bryce Miller, who has been as good as nearly anyone since making his season debut in mid-May. Miller has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of nine outings, and is in the 95th percentile or better in several advanced stats (xERA, xBA, hard-hit rate).
Since his first outing of the season on May 13, Miller has the lowest walk rate among qualifiers, while ranking in the top three in ERA, WHIP and K%. The only pitcher ahead of him in all three of those categories is NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski.
With a sizable pitching edge (Janson Junk goes for Miami, making his first appearance since May 25), I think the better value is isolating the starting pitching matchup and backing the Mariners to lead after five innings.
MLB Picks Recap
- Ryan Feltner Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-112 FanDuel)
- Phillies -0.5 Runs, First 5 Innings (-118 BetMGM)
- Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105 BetMGM)
- Mariners -0.5 Runs, First 5 Innings (-105 DraftKings)
