Top MLB Prop Bets for July 10: Expert Picks & Insights
The All-Star break is almost here, but we at least have a packed schedule to enjoy Friday. Some aces are expected to be on the mound, including Shohei Ohtani. Let's dig into the player props and highlight three of the top options to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 53-35-1 (+8.94 units)
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Best MLB Prop Bets July 10
San Diego Padres 
vs. Toronto Blue Jays 
Betting Picks
- Fernando Tatis Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-152) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
Tatis hasn't provided much power this season with only five home runs. However, his .283 batting average is on pace to be his highest mark since 2019. He is still hitting the ball hard, posting an 11.0% barrel rate and a 52.7% hard-hit rate. He has also been a menace on the base paths, stealing 23 bases. In terms of this prop, Tatis has combined for at least two hits, runs and RBI in 10 of his last 16 games.
Starting this game for the Blue Jays is Shane Bieber and has not looked right over three starts since returning from an elbow injury. Across 13 innings, he has allowed 13 runs and posted a 2.08 WHIP. He has even been taken deep six times already. Not only does this matchup work in Tatis' favor, so does this game being played in San Diego. He is batting .322 with a .360 wOBA at home, compared to .247 with a .284 wOBA on the road.
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Chicago White Sox 
vs. Athletics 
Betting Picks
- Sean Burke over 5.5 strikeouts (-150) at FanDuel for 1 Unit
Burke has been one of the more reliable members of the White Sox's rotation, posting a 3.56 ERA that is backed by a 3.74 xERA. One of the main reasons for his success has been keeping hitters inside the ballpark. He gave up 1.5 HR/9 last year, but has only allowed 1.1 HR/9 this year. Also, he has increased his strikeout rate from 22.3% last season to 25.8% this year. In his last outing, he recorded 11 strikeouts against the Guardians. That extended his streak to eight straight starts with at least six strikeouts.
The Athletics are having problems making contact. Their 22.8% strikeout rate is the 12th-highest mark in baseball. On the road, they have a 24.7% strikeout rate. Their .653 road OPS is the second-lowest mark in the majors, so Burke has the potential to pitch deep into this matchup. Despite the juice that comes with this wager, taking the over is still appealing.
Kansas City Royals 
at Baltimore Orioles 
Betting Picks
- Luinder Avila over 2.5 walks allowed (-119) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
Injuries have hit the Royals hard within their starting rotation. They have turned to Avila to try and pick up some of the slack, but his results have been mixed. While he has given up exactly one run in three of his last four starts, he walked nine batters over 19.2 innings during that span. Each of his last seven appearances were starts. In five of them, he issued at least three walks.
Avila's lack of control is nothing new. He had a 10.2% walk rate in the minors last year, and a 12.4% walk rate in 2024. This is not a great matchup for a wild pitcher because the Orioles can draw walks. Although they have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the majors, they also have the fifth-highest walk rate. They are led by Taylor Ward, who has a whopping 16.7% walk rate. Even if Avila can't pitch deep into this matchup, he is still in a favorable spot to issue at least three free passes.
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MLB Prop Picks Recap
- Fernando Tatis Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-152) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
- Sean Burke over 5.5 strikeouts (-150) at FanDuel for 1 Unit
- Luinder Avila over 2.5 walks allowed (-119) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
