Man, injuries recently have been a nightmare in some of my season-long leagues, but that's one of the best parts of DFS. Injuries rarely have a direct impact on DFS lineups, aside from the few days where you get an unexpected scratch I've been lucky to avoid that all season, and it's one of my favorite aspects of DFS. With that in mind, let's get started with a pitcher who's one of the league leaders with 39 starts since the start of last season.
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Pitching
Bryan Woo, SEA vs. CWS ($9,000)
There were a ton of injury question marks around Woo a few years ago, but he's been one of the most reliable pitchers since then. Woo has a 3.07 ERA and 0.93 WHIP since 2024, allowing three runs or fewer in 49 of 61 starts in that span. That's consistency at its finest, and Woo would be having another sensational season if it weren't for one nightmarish week. If you take out those two outliers, Woo has a 2.05 ERA and 0.84 WHIP this year. He's also been special in Seattle, sporting a 2.62 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 rate there across those three years. The matchup with Chicago is the icing on the cake, with the White Sox ranked bottom five in runs scored, OBP, wOBA and K rate since the start of last season. When he faced them last year, Woo scored 35 DraftKings points!
Zac Gallen, ARI vs. SF ($6,600)
Gallen has earned this price tag with some pitiful pitching, but this is a great spot for a bounce-back. We say that because he has the best matchup in baseball, with San Francisco sitting 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. That sort of matchup should get this guy back on track, with Gallen generating a 3.58 career ERA and 1.16 WHIP coming into the year. He's also got a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this season while scoring at least 26 DK points in four of his last five matchups with the Giants. He also allowed just one run or fewer in all four of those starts!
Top Targets
Aaron Judge, NYY ($6,500) vs. Patrick Corbin
There's no such thing as a can't-miss in DFS, but this feels like one of those. We have the most consistent hitter over the last five years facing the worst pitcher during that span. Let's start with Judge, who has a .437 OBP and 1.109 OPS since 2022 while posting a .406 OBP and 1.018 OPS this season. Corbin has been on the opposite end of the spectrum, collecting a 5.36 ERA and 1.50 WHIP since 2020. Judge also has the platoon advantage, and he's accrued a .494 OBP and 1.231 OPS against southpaws since 2023.
Nick Kurtz, ATH ($5,600) vs. Walbert Urena
Kurtz reached 162 MLB games played Sunday, and it's absurd what sort of start this slugger has had to his career. The A's first baseman has a .396 career OBP and .978 OPS. He also carries a ridiculous 40-game on-base streak into this matchup while maintaining a .460 OBP and 1.070 OPS across his last 27 outings. That won't bode well for a youngster like Urena, who has a 1.43 career WHIP across five starts after posting a 4.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP throughout his minor-league career. Not to mention, Kurtz has a .445 OBP and 1.116 OPS against righties.
Bargain Bats
Jake Burger, TEX ($3,800) vs. Jose Quintana
Burger had 63 homers and a .488 SLG between 2023 and 2024, and he can be one of the best sluggers in baseball with the right matchup. He hasn't quite played like that this season, but he's averaging 16 DraftKings points per game across his last five fixtures. Being scorching hot going into Coors Field is already worth a massive bump, especially since he had an .815 OPS against left-handers last year. We'll discuss the Quintana matchup more below, but Burger could be at the heart of one of the highest-scoring lineups on this slate.
Isaac Paredes, HOU ($3,300) vs. Kendry Rojas
It's surprising to see Paredes sitting this cheap. Most players in this salary range barely come off the bench, but this guy regularly bats third for what, on paper, should be one of the better lineups in baseball. He's earned that spot by providing a .367 OBP and .781 OPS across his last 19 outings. Most importantly, Paredes has the platoon advantage from the right side, posting a .383 OBP and .798 OPS against southpaws this season. Christian Walker ($4,500) also hits from the right side while hitting 12 homers this year, if you want to stack him with Paredes.
Stacks to Consider
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Corbin): Judge ($6,500), Ben Rice ($6,000), Cody Bellinger ($5,100), Paul Goldschmidt ($4,000)
We already talked about how Corbin has been one of the worst pitchers over the last decade, but the numbers are truly jarring. Having a 5.36 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in a six-year span is pretty bad, but it looks even worse since he's doing that across 934.1 innings. The negative regression monster is right around the corner, too, because Corbin's 3.93 ERA this year doesn't match his 1.40 WHIP and 6.09 xERA. That's hard to believe, which is why the Yankees are projected to score five runs in this game.
Judge is the best option on the board, but the Bronx Bombers should feast here. Rice is amid a breakout season, registering a .412 OBP and 1.079 OPS this season. Bellinger is flirting with a 1.000 OPS against lefties since the start of last year while amassing a .481 OBP and .939 OPS in 24 at-bats against Bellinger. Goldy also has some great BvP numbers against Corbin, compiling a .529 OBP and 1.315 OPS in 14 at-bats against him.
Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies (Quintana): Josh Jung ($4,700), Ezequiel Duran ($4,000) Andrew McCutchen ($3,900), Burger ($3,800)
The Rangers are the highest-projected offense on this slate. That's no surprise since they face a horrid Rockies pitching staff in Coors Field. Quintana is unlikely to have an ERA below 5.00 in Coors this year, collecting a 5.89 xFIP so far this season. That's terrifying against Texas because they have some dangerous righty bats.
We like Corey Seager if he's able to suit up, but let's ride this three-man stack. Jung has quietly been one of the best third basemen in baseball, accumulating a .393 OBP and .952 OPS across his last 33 outings. He also has the platoon advantage against Quintana, just like Duran. Ezequiel has a .355 OBP and .855 OPS across his last 15 outings. Cutch is well past his prime, but he has a .387 OBP and .831 OPS in 27 at-bats against Quintana.
