This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Tuesday, September 10
- Year-to-Date Record: 151-153-1
- Prior Article: 4-0 (+3.97 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Make sure you have the most competitive and up-to-date MLB odds before wagering on the best online sportsbooks.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Colorado Rockies 
at Detroit Tigers 
We are reaching the point in the season with about three weeks left and the betting options get smaller because of the number of teams in contention. The Tigers have been playing great baseball with a 13-7 in their last 20 games and 18-8 in their last 26. They are now fighting for the last Wild Card spot in the American League along with the Twins, Royals, Red Sox and Mariners.
The Rockies are also a team I look to fade on the road. Bradley Blalock has a 5.40 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP in 26.2 innings. He has been shelled in his last two starts giving up 10 earned runs in nine innings while walking seven and striking out five. I am not thrilled about Keider Montero on the bump for the Tigers, but the Rockies' offense is so much weaker on the road and I can not back them.
MLB Picks for Rockies at Tigers
- Tigers -1.5 for 1 Unit (+120 at BetMGm)
Tampa Bay Rays 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
It has been the tale of two seasons for Rays pitcher Taj Bradley:
- From May 10 to July 25, he threw 81.1 innings with a 2.43 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 10 home runs allowed.
- From July 31 to September 5, he threw 35.1 innings with an 8.92 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 10 home runs allowed.
Bradley's giving up hard contact at an alarming rate and the Phillies' lineup at home is not going to give him any grace. On the other side, Ranger Suarez has also had a similar run as Bradley with a 5.49 ERA and 1.49 WHIP since June 25.
This is a case of both pitchers having some name value but their current performance is not being considered in the total. I am looking at a 7.5 run total in a game where I have it closer to being 8.5-9.0 runs.
MLB Picks for Rays at Phillies
- Rays/Phillies Over 7.5 Runs for 1.5 Units (DraftKings Sportsbook +100)
New York Mets 
at Toronto Blue Jays 
The Blue Jays' listed starting pitcher is now Chris Bassitt, but it was originally Bowden Francis, so if there is a change this will void. With Franci, I would have leaned towards the under. With Bassitt, Mets Moneyline is the play.
The Mets are now one game ahead of the Braves for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They are on a strong run of 9-1, 15-5 and 19-11 in their last 30 games. Their ERA in the last 10 days is a microscopic 1.78.
David Peterson is a big part of the strong pitching run and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 15 out of 17 starts. The Mets are 14-3 in his 17 starts. Bassitt has a 6.03 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP since July 4th. I like to save the two-unit plays for Moneyline-only plays. This is my best bet of the day.
- Mets ML for 2 Units (-129 BetRivers)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Tigers -1.5 for 1 Unit (+120 at BetMGM)
- Rays/Phillies Over 7.5 Runs for 1.5 Units (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Mets ML for 2 Units (-129 at BetRivers)
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