This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Friday, September 13
- Year-to-Date Record: 154-156-1
- Prior Article: 1-2 ( -0.16 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Before placing a wager on the best online sportsbooks make sure you first have the latest and most and competitive MLB odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Houston Astros 
at Los Angeles Angels 
The Astros are 7-0 in Yusei Kikuchi's starts since he was traded from the Blue Jays. Rookie Samuel Aldegheri has made two starts for the Angels with a 2.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
The Astros are still playing for seeding in the playoffs while the Angels are just playing out the string. The Angels are just 6-14 in their last 20 and struggle against left-handed pitching with a 66 wRC+ in the last 30 days. The Astros are middle of the pack against left-handed pitching with an 88 wRC+ in the last 30 days.
There is no huge trend here with the exception Houston has been playing strong baseball when Kikuchi is on the mound. I will continue to ride that.
MLB Picks for Astros at Angels
- Astros -1.5 for 1 Unit (-124 BetRivers)
St. Louis Cardinals 
at Toronto Blue Jays 
Neither team has much to play for at this point in the season, but we do have a significant split with the Jays against right-handed pitching. Toronto is No. 1 in wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days (135). Erick Fedde has gotten crushed in his last four road starts since being traded. He has a 5.64 ERA and 2.4 HR/9 in 22.1 innings.
Kevin Gausman has been okay recently, but most of his worst starts have come at home with a 5.49 ERA versus a 2.67 ERA on the road. The Cardinals are middle of the pack against right-handed pitchers for wRC+.
A total of 7.5 is usually reserved for at least one ace or two solid pitchers going against weak lineups or a pitchers' park. None of those scenarios is the case here.
I am somewhat baffled by this total as I have it projected at 8.5 or 9.0, so grab this at 7.5 with slightly higher juice.
MLB Picks for Cardinals at Blue Jays
- Cardinals/Blue Jays over 7.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-118 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox 
at New York Yankees 
The Red Sox are hanging on by the slimmest of margins for an American League Wild Card spot, and this matchup is a tough one for them. Clarke Schmidt has emerged as one of the better starting pitchers on the Yankees with a 2.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He made his first start since coming off the injured list on September 7th against the Cubs, allowing zero runs.
Tanner Houck has only had three starts since July 22nd in which he allowed fewer than three runs. This is most likely due to the number of innings he has thrown so far (169.2) versus his career-high of 106 last year.
I am going to bank on Schmidt being able to lock down Red Sox bats and Houck to continue to struggle, especially on the road against this Yankees lineup.
- Yankees -1.5 for 1 Unit (+135 BetRivers)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Astros -1.5 for 1 Unit (-124 BetRivers)
- Cardinals/Blue Jays Over 7.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-118 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Yankees -1.5 for 1 Unit (+135 BetRivers)
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