Top MLB Prop Bets for July 3: Expert Picks & Insights
A busy Friday means we have a bevy of betting options to consider. We could see some high scoring games, given the combination of warm weather and underwhelming starting pitching options. With that in mind, here are three of the top player props to target.
Mike Barner's season record: 47-35-1 (+3.57 units)
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Best MLB Prop Bets July 3
Athletics 
vs. Miami Marlins 
Betting Picks
- Jack Perkins over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+116) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
- Otto Lopez over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (+113) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
This has the potential to be a high-scoring game in the A's hitter-friendly home park. The Athletics will start Perkins, who enters with a 6.00 ERA. While he has a 3.46 xFIP and a 1.26 WHIP on the road, he has a 4.30 xFIP and a 1.38 WHIP at home. He has also given up 1.5 HR/9 there, compared to 0.4 HR/9 on the road. Over the last 30 days, the Marlins have the ninth-highest OPS in baseball. Perkins allowing at least three earned runs comes with plus odds, making it a very appealing wager.
As we look to continue to exploit this matchup with Perkins, Lopez stands out. He is in the midst of a breakout season, batting .336 with a .373 wOBA. His hard-hit rate has increased to 43.4%, which is more than three percentage points higher than his career mark. He doesn't get fooled often, posting just a 13.6% strikeout rate. In terms of this prop, Lopez has already posted at least three combined hits, runs and RBI six times over his last nine games. This is another plus-odds wager that is worth considering.
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Cleveland Guardians 
vs. Chicago White Sox 
Betting Picks
- Gavin Williams over 5.5 strikeouts (-154) at Caesars for 1 Unit
Prior to this year, Williams had never finished a season with a strikeout rate higher than 24.6%. He has been more productive in that department, posting a 28.3% strikeout rate over his first 17 starts. After throwing his sweeper 19.9% of the time last year, he has increased that to 26.1% this season. That adjustment is important because he has a 43.6% whiff rate on that pitch. Opponents are also batting just .169 against it. Last year, he had a 44.0% whiff rate and opponents hit .181 off that pitch.
The White Sox are a free-swinging team that has the fifth-highest strikeout rate (23.8%) in the majors. Williams faced them two starts ago and came away with eight strikeouts over five innings. That game was on the road, where Williams has a 3.40 xFIP and a 1.22 WHIP. He could pitch longer in this rematch, considering his 3.13 xFIP and 1.11 WHIP at home. There is plenty of juice that comes with this over, but with the potential for him to at least approach six innings, it's still one to target.
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MLB Prop Picks Recap
- Jack Perkins over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+116) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
- Otto Lopez over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (+113) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
- Gavin Williams over 5.5 strikeouts (-154) at Caesars for 1 Unit
