Fantasy Baseball Lineup Lowdown: National League Trends

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? This week, we will be focusing on players from the National League.

Trending Up

Konnor Griffin, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates

Griffin finally returned to the Pirates' lineup this past Friday following a nearly month-long absence, and he was immediately thrown into the leadoff spot and homered in his first plate appearance. That was against a left-hander, and after a scheduled day off Saturday, Griffin remained at the top of the batting order versus another lefty and two righties.

Before going on the 10-day injured list with a flexor strain, Griffin had moved up in the batting order against lefties, hitting second four times and leadoff once. However, prior to Sunday he hadn't hit higher than fifth versus a right-hander, and much of his starts against righties had come from the bottom third of the lineup. Griffin has a 6.2 percent walk rate, 51.2 percent swing rate and 39 percent chase rate, which doesn't make him an ideal fit for the leadoff spot right now. However, the Pirates are no doubt betting on further improvement from Griffin, who is slashing .312/.364/.489 in his last 36 contests after hitting only .182/.247/.242 in his first 19 games.

Endy Rodriguez, C/1B, Pittsburgh Pirates

It doesn't look like it's going to happen for Henry Davis at this point, but might the Pirates have another former top prospect at catcher ready to break out?

When Rodriguez was summoned from Triple-A Indianapolis in mid-May, he was hitting only .221/.326/.301 with one home run. He started only 12 of the Pirates' first 27 games upon his recall and slashed .217/.379/.326 with one long ball over that span. Rodriguez has really perked up since then, however, with a robust .326/.420/.628 batting line with three home runs, 10 RBI and a 7:12 BB:K across his last 14 tilts. He's been in the lineup for 11 of 17 games during that stretch. The switch-hitting catcher has an 17.4 percent walk rate and 23.9 percent strikeout rate, and his batted-ball data has also been ultra-impressive with a 46 percent hard-hit rate, 12.7 percent barrel rate and 92.5 mph average exit velocity.

Jung Hoo Lee, OF, San Francisco Giants

Lee's first season in the states was wrecked by injury, and his second season was solid, albeit underwhelming. In year three, the 27-year-old is looking like he has a chance to break out.

Lee isn't going to excite anyone with his quality of contact metrics. His 29.4 percent hard-hit rate and 2.6 percent barrel rate both rank in the ninth percentile, and his 87.4 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 21st percentile. Lee has a profile built for batting average, though. His 37.7 percent sweet-spot rate is in the 83rd percentile and his 37.6 percent squared-up rate ranks in the 98th percentile. Lee also sports a microscopic 9.4 percent strikeout rate, which is the fifth-lowest mark among 152 qualifiers. Additionally, while you'd like Lee's 4.2 percent walk rate to be higher, it does mean his high average carries more juice for fantasy managers.

Max Kepler, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Back in January, Kepler was popped with an 80-game PED suspension. The suspension was announced about a month before he turned 33, and he was coming off back-to-back sub-.700 OPS seasons.

While it seemed like the suspension might be a death knell to Kepler's career, the Diamondbacks didn't see it that way and signed the outfielder in early June. Upon completion of his suspension last week, Kepler was immediately added to Arizona's active roster, and he was inserted into its lineup for four of the first five contests. Kepler has been right around a league-average hitter in his career, though he's been quite a bit less than that in four of his past five seasons. Also, his 36-homer campaign during the juiced-ball 2019 season is doing a lot of heavy lifting with his career numbers. Kepler is making the prorated veteran minimum, so the Diamondbacks have no incentive to stick with him if he gets off to a slow start.

Quick Hits: Ha-Seong Kim has started four of the past five games at shortstop for Atlanta following a stretch of one start in six contests … After dropping down to the six or seven spot versus righties for a while, Jakob Marsee has hit leadoff five of the last eight times the Marlins have seen a righty … Michael Harris did not bat lower than fifth for Atlanta in all of June, and over the last six contests he's hit first or second five times … TJ Friedl is back with the big club and has started two straight versus righties … Since being called up, Gabriel Rincones has started every game when the Phillies have faced either a righty starter or righty bulk reliever … Jorbit Vivas has started three straight and four of five against righties and also has a couple starts versus lefties over that stretch.

Trending Down

Kyle Tucker, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

It looks like the Dodgers are going to run away with the NL West regardless, but their big signing of Tucker over the offseason has looked like a bust so far. The 29-year-old has certainly been a massive bust for fantasy managers that spent a first-round pick on him.

Tucker began the season as the Dodgers' two-hole hitter. That lasted four weeks before he moved to the cleanup spot. Tucker has continued to inch his way down in the batting order as the Dodgers wait for him to get going, as he's mostly hit sixth lately and on three occasions has been in the No. 7 slot. Though Tucker has not been terrible by normal hitter standards, he's yet to get hot for an extended run. His 21.2 percent strikeout rate is a notable jump from the 15 percent mark he had over the previous five seasons, and his hard-hit rate (39.7 percent), barrel rate (5.8 percent) and average exit velocity (89.1 mph) would all be career lows. Thanks in large part to his supporting cast, Tucker is still on pace for around 85 runs and RBI, and he will surely heat up at some point. The track record suggests you should buy low if someone is selling.

Matt McLain, 2B/SS, Cincinnati Reds

McLain packed on some muscle over the offseason, put together a huge showing during Cactus League play and was named the team's No. 2 hitter by manager Terry Francona during spring training. Everything was pointing toward a big bounce-back season for the former top prospect,  but instead he's treaded water.

Francona stuck with McLain in the two spot until the beginning of May, but since then the infielder has spent most of his time in the bottom third of the Reds' lineup. That's when he's been in the lineup, anyway, as things have gotten bad enough lately that McLain's starting job is no longer safe, and in fact he might have already leap-frogged Edwin Arroyo at second base. In the Reds' last six games versus right-handed pitching, McLain has been in the lineup just twice, and he's batted ninth both of those times. McClain has an .788 OPS against left-handers and just a .605 OPS versus righties, giving Francona more reason to put the 26-year-old in a short-side platoon.

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies

Unlike last season, Tovar has been able to stay off the injured list. Unfortunately, he has continued to regress further at the plate.

Among 154 qualifiers, Tovar ranks 152nd with a .580 OPS and dead last with a wRC+ of 45. The 24-year-old has simply been unable to curb his overaggressiveness. His 62.5 percent swing rate is easily the highest in baseball, and Tovar's 45.6 percent chase rate is also tops in the game. Even Tovar's defense at shortstop has gone from elite to merely above average, so it would seem he no longer has that safety net. After beginning the season as the Rockies' cleanup hitter, Tovar has batted either eighth or ninth in each of his last nine starts.

Ian Happ, OF, Chicago Cubs

Happ is in his walk year, and he's offered a mixed bag in terms of his production.

The 31-year-old has already slugged 17 home runs, giving him a great chance to top his previous career high of 25, which he has accomplished twice. The power surge for Happ does not seem to be an accident, as his 36.6 percent flyball rate, 43.8 percent pull rate and 27.3 percent pull-air rate would all easily be career highs. However, he's also striking out at a 31.8 percent clip, which is quite a jump up from the 23.4 percent mark he had over the previous four seasons. Additionally, while the switch-hitting Happ has always been a better hitter from the left side of the plate, his splits have been extreme in 2026, as he's sporting a .873 OPS versus righties as compared to a .599 OPS against lefties. As a result, Happ was down in the No. 7 spot in the lineup the last two times the Cubs went up against a southpaw, and in the game before that versus a lefty he was out of the lineup entirely. Happ has also scooted down the lineup a bit against righties during a rough June (.687 OPS), typically batting fifth after usually batting third or fourth against right-handers for the first two months of the season.

Quick Hits: Spencer Steer has been absent from the Reds' lineup three of the last five times they've gone up against a right-hander … Tyler Freeman has started just two of the last four and six of 10 versus righties … The Brewers have penciled Joey Ortiz into their lineup just two times over their last seven contests against right-handers … The Cubs jettisoned Moises Ballesteros to Triple-A Iowa in mid-June following an extended slump and have subsequently slid Seiya Suzuki into the designated hitter spot.