Paving the way to 4th of July weekend, it's a light Thursday for MLB. There are six games on the slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. In case you need to buy some fireworks at the last minute, here's hoping these MLB DFS lineup recommendations can help you out!
Pitching
Roki Sasaki, LAD vs. SDP ($7,700): Sasaki has been poor on the road, but he has a 3.50 ERA at home. Mostly, though, this is about the matchup. The Padres are last in runs scored and team OPS. This is the worst offense in baseball. Also, the Padres allowed 23 runs Wednesday, so there's that.
Framber Valdez, DET at TEX ($7,300): Since getting rocked on Cinco de Mayo, Valdez has a 3.61 ERA over his last nine starts. The Rangers are down in the bottom 10 in runs scored, so Valdez can hopefully continue his solid run of play. It also helps that this is a road game, because the former Astro has a 3.59 ERA on the road this season.
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Top Target
At the current rate, Max Muncy ($5,000) is going to have a slugging percentage over .500 for the first time since 2021, and he might have an average over .250 for the first time since 2019. While the third baseman has been better on the road this season, since 2024 he has a .928 OPS at home. Meanwhile, since 2024 lefties have hit .303 against Randy Vasquez. Maybe Muncy boosts his power numbers, but there's a good chance he can improve his batting average.
Bargain Bats
Somewhat quietly, Kerry Carpenter ($3,500) has a career .506 slugging percentage. Of course, he benefits from the fact he is shielded from facing lefties more than necessary. Over the last three seasons the man some call "Kerry Bonds" has slugged .553 against right-handed pitchers. Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 1.52 homers per nine innings, and he also has a 4.50 ERA at home.
In the last three weeks, Cole Young ($3,100) has hit more home runs (five) than he hit in 77 games last season. That is unusual, to be sure, but he has an OPS around .750 against righties and also at home. Walbert Urena allowed seven runs in his last start, and on the year he has a 3.84 FIP compared to a 3.14 ERA.
Stack to Consider
Atlanta vs. St. Louis (Dustin May): Matt Olson ($4,800), Drake Baldwin ($4,500), Dominic Smith ($3,100)
May has been better this season than last, but he's relied on being at home, particularly when it comes to avoiding home runs. On the road, though, May has a 4.79 ERA and 1.5 HR/9 rate. Furthermore, lefties have hit .290 against May, so I have three southpaws from Atlanta for this stack. That means every one of these hitting recommendations is a lefty. Unexpected!
Olson has gotten to 20 homers and 20 doubles on the campaign already, and he's hit .272 as well. He has an .899 OPS against righties, and that comes after he had an .875 OPS last season. Baldwin is a fine choice at catcher, mostly owing to his power. He hit 19 homers in 124 games as a rookie, and this year he has 14 homers in only 61 games. Smith has been bopping around MLB, and this year he's hit .279 for Atlanta. He's hit .299 against righties, and additionally in his first season with this squad he has an .826 OPS at home.
