Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, July 2
MLB 2026 betting record: 20-30-1, -10.91 units
Thursday's MLB betting slate is plentiful, featuring nine games around the league. The majority of those are taking place this evening, including tonight's four-game series opener between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers.
I have two MLB picks on that NL West game and two others, including a player prop and moneyline recommendation.
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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions and Best Bets
Over 9 runs (-114 DraftKings)
Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+110 theScore Bet)
Considering the starting pitching matchup, the environment, and the fact that this game features the top offense in MLB, I'm confident we'll see a double-digit total reached tonight.
Roki Sasaki and Randy Vasquez are both pitching poorly and both struggled in this matchup in their last starts. Sasaki issued a career-high-tying five walks with a season-low six whiffs, allowing three runs in a defeat to San Diego. It was his third rough outing in a row after finally showing promise of a turnaround in May. He's entirely unreliable, something that can be said about Vasquez, too.
The San Diego right-hander has been pummeled in back-to-back outings, and he has pitched poorly for the last month. After the Dodgers tagged him for seven runs on eight hits last weekend in a relief appearance, he finished June with a 7.84 ERA over five outings.
It marked the second time this season that Los Angeles has pounded him. Vasquez has thrown 7.2 innings against the Dodgers, recording fewer strikeouts (one) than home runs allowed (three). And he threw both those games at his much-friendlier home park, but tonight he'll be at Dodger Stadium, a great home run-hitting venue.
Los Angeles is far and away the best team in baseball vs. righties, leading the majors in all three slash categories, wRC+ and home runs. It's unlikely Vasquez will walk away from this outing with anything but a battered pitching line, forcing San Diego's bullpen to do heavy lifting. The group has a 6.40 ERA in the last two weeks for the sputtering Padres, who have been outscored 54-17 over a five-game losing skid.
Left-handers have hit Vasquez hard, and the Dodgers have several good ones in their lineup. The one I want is Freddie Freeman, who hit .337 with a .973 OPS in June, and then homered in his first game in July, raising his season-long average nearly 30 points and his slugging 50 points.
Freeman is 8-2 vs. this total bases line over his last 10 games. He's hitting .314/.405/.550 off right-handers, numbers we saw out of him during his best seasons. The star first baseman is one of eight players, per Team Rankings, to record two-plus bases in at least 50% of his games. At plus money, this is a no-brainer play to get behind.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals Predictions and Best Bets
Rays moneyline (-124 FanDuel)
Getting the Rays at this price after seeing what Ian Seymour did to the Kansas City Royals last week feels like excellent value. Following an opener, Seymour threw 6.2 innings of no-hit ball with seven strikeouts. It was a dominant outing for the left-hander, who has a 3.42 ERA over 50 innings since allowing five runs and recording no outs in his first appearance of the season. Tonight, there will be no opener ahead of the southpaw.
Beyond Seymour, we're looking at two entirely different teams. The Rays have won seven straight over the course of the New York Yankees' seven-game losing streak to take over first place in the AL East. As for the Royals, they have an AL-worst 35 wins and -80 run differential, turning in a truly disappointing season after entering the year with division-title aspirations.
While the Rays' run differential might not be indicative of a first-place team that's 17 games over .500, they're seventh in wRC+ and seventh in team ERA.
Royals starter Stephen Kolek has turned in some strong outings this season, but I see little reason to back Kansas City to halt the Rays' winning ways on Thursday. Following Kolek, who allowed nine runs over 1.2 innings in his last start, is a Kansas City bullpen with the highest ERA in MLB.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians vs. Predictions and Best Bets
Davis Martin over 4.5 strikeouts (-125 FanDuel)
Star third baseman Jose Ramirez has been out for the last two weeks, severely weakening what was already a lacklustre Guardians offense. Cleveland is averaging 3.9 runs per game, and that number has dropped to 3.6 without Ramirez.
Since he's been gone, the Guardians have a top-10 chase rate in MLB and the second-highest strikeout rate. Over that stretch, their wRC+ is last in the AL and the second-worst mark in MLB.
This is a great matchup for Chicago's Martin to shine and work deep, creating an ideal opportunity to record punchouts. Martin struggled to miss bats in June, going 1-4 vs. this line while turning in his worst month of the season. But before that, he had cleared this number in seven consecutive outings and he enters the start with the best K rate of his career.
Despite getting rocked twice in June, Martin still sports a strong 3.00 ERA (2.92 FIP) and the fourth-lowest HR/9 rate among qualified starters. Prior to June, he had worked into the sixth inning in 10 straight starts following his five-inning season debut. This Guardians offense doesn't impose a big threat to Davis, who has allowed one run over his last two starts.
MLB Picks Recap
- Padres/Dodgers Over 9 runs (-114 DraftKings)
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+110 theScore Bet)
- Rays to win (-124 FanDuel)
- Davis Martin Over 4.5 strikeouts (-125 FanDuel)
