The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? This week, we will be focusing on players from the National League.
Trending Up
Konnor Griffin, SS, 
Pittsburgh Pirates
Griffin is already showing an ability to adjust at the major-league level, which is a very good sign.
In his first 19 games, the rookie shortstop slashed only .182/.247/.242 with zero home runs, three extra-base hits, four stolen bases, a 5.5 percent walk rate and 30.1 percent strikeout rate. Across his last 23 contests — a stretch that happens to start on Griffin's 20th birthday — he's hit .322/.375/.506 with three home runs, nine extra-base hits, six stolen bases, a 7.3 percent walk rate and 26 percent strikeout rate. As a result of the hot stretch, Griffin is being entrusted with better spots in the Pirates' lineup. Through his first 34 contests, Griffin never batted higher than sixth, and he spent most of his time hitting eighth. Since then, he's hit second all three times the Pirates have faced a lefty, and he's been up as high as the No. 5 spot against righties.
One thing I figured Griffin would have no problem with is making loud contact when he did put the bat on the ball. That hasn't been the case, however, as his 34 percent hard-hit rate and 87.9 mph average exit velocity are both below average, and
The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? This week, we will be focusing on players from the National League.
Trending Up
Konnor Griffin, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Griffin is already showing an ability to adjust at the major-league level, which is a very good sign.
In his first 19 games, the rookie shortstop slashed only .182/.247/.242 with zero home runs, three extra-base hits, four stolen bases, a 5.5 percent walk rate and 30.1 percent strikeout rate. Across his last 23 contests — a stretch that happens to start on Griffin's 20th birthday — he's hit .322/.375/.506 with three home runs, nine extra-base hits, six stolen bases, a 7.3 percent walk rate and 26 percent strikeout rate. As a result of the hot stretch, Griffin is being entrusted with better spots in the Pirates' lineup. Through his first 34 contests, Griffin never batted higher than sixth, and he spent most of his time hitting eighth. Since then, he's hit second all three times the Pirates have faced a lefty, and he's been up as high as the No. 5 spot against righties.
One thing I figured Griffin would have no problem with is making loud contact when he did put the bat on the ball. That hasn't been the case, however, as his 34 percent hard-hit rate and 87.9 mph average exit velocity are both below average, and his 8.5 percent barrel rate is just a tick above. The good news is he's trending up in this area during the aforementioned hot stretch with a 38 percent hard-hit rate and 89.1 mph average exit velocity. Griffin should eventually become a staple in the middle of the Pirates' batting order, and he has a chance to move up to the cleanup spot soon while Ryan O'Hearn (quad) is shelved.
Carson Benge, OF, 
New York Mets
Here's another touted rookie proving capable of adjustments early on in his big-league career, and Benge's turnaround happened at essentially the same time as Konnor Griffin's.
In Benge's initial 21 contests, he sported a .136/.219/.197 batting line, one home run, two extra-base hits, six steals, a 9.6 percent walk rate and 24.7 percent strikeout rate. Over his last 24 tilts, Benge is hitting .360/.400/.494 with a pair of home runs, two steals and a 15.8 percent strikeout rate. The left-handed hitter was in the No. 9 spot in the Mets' lineup for the first game of the latter stretch, but over the last eight games he's been situated in the leadoff slot, including three times versus left-handers.
Benge has been hitting the ball harder more regularly than Griffin, collecting a 43.2 percent hard-hit rate and 90 mph average exit velocity. He's doing that while maintaining an above-average 85.8 zone-contact rate, 27.4 percent chase rate and 19.7 percent whiff rate. Francisco Lindor (calf) will likely slide back into the leadoff spot when he returns, but that's not expected to happen for another month or so, and if Benge continues on his current trajectory, he won't move down too far in the batting order once Lindor is back.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, 
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arenado is the crusty old veteran when compared to the first two players in this article. However, he's similar to the rookies in that a rebound from a slow start has earned a move up in the batting order.
The Cardinals were willing to eat a substantial portion of what remained on Arenado's contract in order to trade him over the offseason, and in the early going the 35-year-old's downward was continuing. In the first 13 contests with his new organization, Arenado went 8-for-48 with just one extra-base hit (a double) and a 1:13 BB:K. Across 32 contests since then, Arenado is sitting on a .330/.418/.612 batting line with seven home runs, eight doubles, 23 RBI and a 15:20 BB:K. Correspondingly, he's been situated in the cleanup spot for each of the Diamondbacks' last seven contests. Prior to that, Arenado had spent much of his time batting sixth or seventh for Arizona.
Unfortunately, I'm not sure anything has changed with Arenado that should alter how we view his profile moving forward. He was never elite in terms of quality of contact even at his best, but he's been even worse in that regard this season with a hard-hit rate (31 percent) in the 14th percentile and average exit velocity (85 mph) in the fifth percentile. Arenado has a .310 BABIP, which isn't abnormally high for most players but would easily be his highest in the last seven seasons. When you're an extreme flyball hitter who doesn't hit the ball hard, you're going to run low BABIPs (when you don't play in Colorado, anyway). There's also a 19-point gap between his xwOBA (.339) and wOBA (.358). He's currently situated in a great RBI spot, but I don't anticipate Arenado retaining much mixed-league usefulness in standard-sized leagues.
Harrison Bader, OF, 
San Francisco Giants
If he had to go back and do it over again, Bader would probably go on the injured list to begin the season with a hamstring injury he suffered late in spring training. Instead, he played through the issue for 15 games, slashed only .115/.145/.192 and then went on the IL.
Since returning from the IL after a month-long absence, Bader has looked much better, collecting a .922 OPS with three home runs and three doubles in seven games. The hot start resulted in the right-handed-hitting Bader getting a turn at leadoff in two of the last three games (one against a lefty and one against a righty), the first and only times this season he's batted higher than seventh.
Bader should continue getting reps at leadoff against left-handed pitching, and he could get more chances there versus righties, too, if he stays hot. Though he's traditionally been much better against lefties in his career, Bader slashed .300/.369/.476 versus right-handers in 2025 in what was his best offensive season to date. He also had a career-high 40.3 percent hard-hit rate last season and has upped that mark to 42.6 percent in 2026, which includes a 50 percent hard-hit rate since coming off the IL.
Trending Down
TJ Friedl, OF, 
Cincinnati Reds
In his first 35 starts this season, Friedl didn't hit anywhere other than leadoff in the Reds' lineup. In his team's last six contests, Friedl has batted eighth twice and been absent from the lineup for the other four tilts.
Friedl had a .364 on-base percentage for Cincinnati last season and entered this year with a career .344 OBP in nearly 2,000 plate appearances. This year, the 30-year-old is slashing a sickly .178/.258/.260 in 41 games. His strikeout rate has spiked to 24.1 percent after having never previously been higher than 16.8 percent, and his whiff rate sits at 26.7 percent after never being higher than 20.3 percent. Friedl has typically been really good at pulling the ball, particularly in the air, but his pull-air rate has also bottomed out in 2026 at just 12.7 percent.
Will Benson assumed the leadoff spot three times the Reds faced a righty before yielding to Matt McLain the last time. Eugenio Suarez's (oblique) return — which could happen before the end of May — might present a playing-time crunch, as Spencer Steer will likely need to spend more time in the outfield.
Jakob Marsee, OF, 
Miami Marlins
The Marlins stuck with Marsee as their leadoff man versus right-handed pitching through May 4, starting him in that spot all 26 times against righties over that span. The left-handed hitter even settled into the No. 3 spot for seven of the first nine lefties they faced.
Unfortunately for Marsee, his slow start has finally resulted in a move down in the batting order. Over his last 12 starts, Marsee has slotted into the Nos. 5-7 spots, including six straight in the No. 6 spot against righties. It's possible Marsee's demotion won't last, though, as he's been scorching hot the last few days, going 9-for-14 with one home run, one stolen base and a 4:2 BB:K. If Marsee does get moved back up in the batting order, it probably won't be to leadoff, as Xavier Edwards has made that spot his with a .406 OBP in his last seven contests (and .401 OBP for the season).
Jackson Merrill, OF, 
San Diego Padres
Merrill looked like a prime bounce-back candidate this season following a disappointing 2025 campaign. Instead, he's taken another step back in 2026.
The 23-year-old batted cleanup for the Padres on Opening Day, and that was the lowest he hit in his first 42 starts of the season. Most of his time has been spent in the No. 3 spot (25 starts) and leadoff spot (11 starts). However, Merrill has finally been moved down in the batting order, hitting sixth in each of the last three contests. All three of those games have been against righties, so the lefty-swinging Merrill could hit even lower versus southpaws.
Merrill's quality of contact has been fine. His barrel rate is down at 9.3 percent, but a 46.5 percent hard-hit rate would be a career high and an 89.6 mph average exit velocity is right in line with his career mark. However, Merrill's strikeout rate sits at 25.1 percent, which is way up from the 17 percent mark he posted in his rookie season. Merrill has kept his fantasy value afloat by stealing nine bases in nine attempts. He's always had great speed but hasn't usually been aggressive on the bases, having swiped just one bag on three attempts in 2025.
Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants
Chapman has been a stable power source for fantasy managers over the years, averaging 29 home runs and 80 RBI per 162 games. He hit 27 long balls in his first season with the Giants in 2024 and 21 in 2025 while being limited to 128 games by injury. However, Chapman has had a power outage so far in 2026, going deep just once in his first 202 plate appearances. Through May 1, he didn't bat lower than fifth for the Giants and spent most of his time hitting third. However, over his last 10 starts, Chapman has hit seventh six times and higher than sixth just once.
Perhaps even more discouraging than Chapman's lackluster home run output has been some alarming batted-ball data. Chapman has consistently been among the league leaders in terms of quality of contact, but after taking a small step back in that regard last season, his numbers have plummeted in 2026. The 33-year-old's hard-hit rate has dropped from 47.6 percent to 32.1 percent year-over-year, his barrel rate has gone from 9.9 percent to 5.3 percent and his average exit velocity has dipped from 92.2 mph to 87.2 mph. Chapman is struggling to loft the ball, as well, with his flyball rate going from 24.7 percent to 17.8 percent and groundball rate from 40.4 percent to 50.4 percent.
Chapman's plate discipline has regressed, too. His 25.2 percent strikeout rate is his highest in three years, his 8.9 percent walk rate would be a full-season low, and his 25.8 percent chase rate is a career high. Chapman has a tendency to be streaky and will probably be fine. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in bat speed and 71st percentile in sprint speed, which are both in the normal range for him and would seem to contradict any notion that he could be playing hurt.
