Fantasy Baseball Lineup Lowdown: American League Trends

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? This week, we will be focusing on players from the American League.

Trending Up

Carlos Cortes, OF, Sacramento Athletics

The Athletics currently sit in first place in the AL West, and Cortes has played a bigger-than-expected role in the team's nice start.

Cortes began the season as a reserve outfielder. He started only two of the Athletics' first eight games, and in seven of his first eight starts he batted either eighth or ninth. However, over the last 12 times his club has gone up against a right-hander, the left-handed-hitting Cortes has split his time between the No. 3 (five starts) and No. 5 (seven starts) spots in the batting order. During that stretch, he has collected a ridiculous .407/.438/.661 batting line with three home runs and one stolen base.

Cortes is 28 and didn't do a whole lot in the minors until 2025, when he put up a 1.017 OPS with 17 home runs and a 41:46 BB:K at hitter-friendly Triple-A Las Vegas. It's difficult to find much flukiness in what he's done with the Athletics, though. Cortes has slashed .332/.369/.558 with eight long balls and just a 14.1 percent strikeout rate in his first 206 plate appearances at the big-league level. He's fanned at a microscopic 8.4 rate in 2026, and his hard-hit rate (44.3 percent), barrel rate (10.2 percent) and average exit velocity (91.1 mph) are all well above average. Cortes hasn't been a product of the Sutter Health Park bandbox, either, as he's been more productive on the road in 2026 with a 1.042 OPS and all four of his home runs. He rarely starts against lefties, so I'd be benching him in weeks where the A's are slated to face lots of southpaws, but early indications are that Cortes could have staying power.

Sam Antonacci, 2B/3B/OF, Chicago White Sox

A couple weeks ago in this space, I wrote about how it would not surprise me if Chase Meidroth re-took the leadoff spot from Andrew Benintendi sooner rather than later. Instead, it's been Antonacci who has been elevated to the top of the batting order.

Antonacci hit fifth in his major-league debut after being promoted on Tax Day before settling in as the No. 6 hitter for the next couple weeks. Across the last seven contests versus righties, however, he's been perched atop the batting order. The left-handed-hitting Antonacci is getting some chances against southpaws, as well, starting three of six tilts versus traditional left-handed starters. Antonacci has been unfazed by big-league pitching thus far. After going 1-for-15 at the dish in his first four contests, the rookie is slashing .333/.414/.500 with one home run, three stolen bases and just a 13.9 percent strikeout rate across his last 20 games.

The expected stats say Antonacci has been unlucky, too, as there's a 47-point gap between his xBA (.327) and actual batting average (.280) and a 42-point gap between his xwOBA (.403) and actual wOBA (.361). His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity have both been below average, but Antonacci sports a healthy 11.9 percent barrel rate and 40.3 percent sweet-spot rate. It's a quality of contact profile that works when you're ranking in the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate.

Matt Vierling, OF, Detroit Tigers

Vierling's 2025 campaign was wrecked by injury, and he hardly played at the beginning of the 2026 season, not making back-to-back starts until April 16-17. Of late, though, Vierling has settled in as an everyday player for the Tigers.

Vierling has been in the Detroit lineup for 14 of its past 16 tilts, and over the last eight contests he's batted either first or second. The full-season numbers for Vierling are still lacking, but he's been better across his last 10 games with a .231/.302/.410 batting line, one home run and four doubles. The quality of contact this season for Vierling has been noticeably down, but he's managed to cut his strikeout rate to 15.7 percent and up his walk rate to 9.3 percent.

The right-handed-hitting Vierling has always been better against left-handed pitching, and the gap has widened in 2026, as he's slashing .263/.341/.474 versus southpaws and only .172/.234/.293 against righties. Because of this, I don't expect Vierling to stick toward the top of the batting order over the long haul when the opposition has a righty on the mound, especially once the Tigers get healthier.

Kazuma Okamoto, 1B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' offense has yet to find a groove, but the blame does not lie with Okamoto. Signed to a four-year, $60 million contract over the offseason, Okamoto has been the club's best regular from an offensive standpoint.

The right-handed-hitting Okamoto batted seventh against a righty Opening Day before hitting fourth versus a lefty in the second game of the season. Over the last 15 contests, he has not batted lower than cleanup, regardless of the handedness of the opposing hurler. The 29-year-old has really kicked things into high gear since the calendar flipped to May, sporting a .302/.388/.698 batting line with five home runs and 11 RBI over 11 games. He's also cut his strikeout rate to 24.5 percent after entering the month with a 30.9 percent strikeout rate.

Okamoto has been hitting the ball incredibly hard, with his hard-hit rate (53.4 percent), barrel rate (15.5 percent) and average exit velocity (93.1 mph) all ranking in the 90th percentile or higher. He's also had no trouble lofting the ball (31.7 percent flyball rate) or pulling it in the air (26.7 percent pull-air rate). Alejandro Kirk (thumb) remains out and Addison Barger (elbow) just got hurt again, but it's hard to imagine Okamoto moving down in the lineup even after Toronto gets back to full strength.

Trending Down

Caleb Durbin, 3B, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox had a goal heading into the offseason of improving their defense, and from that perspective Durbin has been an excellent addition, ranking among the game's best in defensive metrics at third base. On the other hand, Durbin's offense has been disastrous.

Durbin batted fifth for the Red Sox on Opening Day, and the club also tried him in the two hole for a stretch in mid-April. Of late, though, Durbin has been slotted in as the team's No. 9 hitter for 11 of his past 12 starts. Among 176 qualifiers, Durbin ranks 173rd with a .169 average, 170th with a .250 on-base percentage and 174th with a .246 slugging percentage. Durbin has notched all four of his stolen bases this season over his last 15 contests, but he hasn't run nearly enough to make up for his other shortcomings. You have to get on base in order to run, after all.

Durbin is sitting on just a .193 BABIP, so he should be due for some more base knocks to fall in. It's not as if he's been overly weighed down by bad luck, however, as Durbin's .267 xwOBA, while quite a bit higher than his .234 wOBA, is still terrible.

Jake Burger, 1B, Texas Rangers

I liked Burger as a late-round power target in drafts this spring. He had little competition for at-bats at first base with the Rangers, and the pop was likely to bounce back after he dealt with a nagging wrist injury last season.

Burger had a big Cactus League showing and then went deep in each of his first two games of the regular season. Through his first 20 contests, he was sitting on a .810 OPS with five long balls. Since then, Burger has fallen into a deep slump, putting up a .326 OPS with just one home run in 20 games. In his first 26 starts of the season, Burger batted cleanup 24 times and third twice. In his last two tilts, Burger has been in the No. 8 spot in the Texas lineup. That came after he was given back-to-back off days over the weekend to work on his swing.

The Rangers still don't have much in the way of competition at first base for Burger. They had Justin Foscue handling first base during Burger's two off days, but Foscue has been dreadful in his limited opportunities at the big-league level. Burger is known as a streaky hitter and the power should be there in the end if the Rangers stick with him. He did reach base in all four plate appearances Tuesday, so perhaps the tide is turning. That said, the 30-year-old has the type of hitting profile where when things go south, they can really go south.

Yoan Moncada, 3B, Los Angeles Angels

Moncada had a solid season at the plate for the Angels in 2025 when he was healthy, and it led to a reunion when the 30-year-old re-signed on a one-year, $4 million contract. He's managed to stay healthy so far in 2026, but Moncada's offense has taken a big step back.

Strikeout problems for Moncada aren't new. They've been amplified so far this season, however, as he's collected a 35 percent strikeout rate in his first 37 contests. He's also got the 10th-highest flyball rate in baseball at 37.7 percent. Lots of strikeouts and lots of flyballs has made Moncada a batting average sinkhole. He's currently sitting on a .194 average, which is actually better than his .175 xBA.

Moncada has not slipped too low in the batting order on days he's starting. He began the season as the team's regular No. 5 hitter, and in his last five starts he's hit either fifth or sixth. Manager Kurt Suzuki has left Moncada out of the lineup often over the last few weeks, though, particularly against lefties. The switch hitter was in the lineup each of the first three times the Angels faced a southpaw this season, but he has not started any of the last seven games and just one of the last 10 versus lefties. He's also been in the lineup just five of the last eight tilts against right-handers. Moncada has started only nine of the team's last 19 contests.

Royce Lewis, 3B, Minnesota Twins

For years, the mention of Lewis' name was often followed by, "yeah, but can he stay healthy?" Now, more people might be asking, "is he actually good?"

Lewis did get hurt again earlier this season, missing almost two weeks of action in April with a sprained knee. He was sporting a .822 OPS with a couple home runs when he got hurt. Since Lewis was activated, he is slashing a hideous .130/.186/.204 with one long ball and a 32.2 percent strikeout rate across 15 contests. He's been absent from the lineup for five of those games, including in back-to-back contests last week. Each of his last five and eight of his last 10 starts have come from the No. 9 spot in the batting order.

After slashing .307/.364/.549 over 70 games in his first two seasons, Lewis has hit .227/.286/.402 across 215 contests since then. It gets even worse if you condense it down to the last two seasons (.223/.280/.371). The quality of contact for Lewis hasn't been bad, but he has an ugly 37.3 percent whiff rate, a 74.4 percent zone contact rate and a 29.8 percent strikeout rate. I wouldn't be against buying extremely low on Lewis, but have the years of injuries taken a toll on his body? Is he actually good?