This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A slightly smaller 12-game slate awaits Tuesday evening.
Pitching Breakdown
Mike Clevinger ($12,000) leads a five-pack of arms with five-digit salaries. He's fanned 22 Tigers over 14 innings this year, allowing only one run and 10 hits, which includes a 64 FDP performance against them in his last outing. He's had only two starts under 43 points in his last 11, and looks to be worth every penny in a clear plus matchup.
Jacob deGrom ($10,700) and Max Scherzer ($10,500) are set to match up against each other in a likely pitchers' duel. DeGrom has hit for 30-plus FDP in every outing since May 27, and has owned the Nationals to date, fanning 25 across 17.0 innings while allowing 11 hits and four runs. Scherzer hasn't been his best of late as he recovers from a back issue, lasting five or less frames in three straight starts and posting a 31 FDP ceiling, but he's had similar success against the Mets, fanning 28 across 20.0 innings while allowing six runs and 14 hits. He's looking like a GPP target more than a cash backbone.
Zack Greinke ($10,200) and Jack Flaherty ($10,000) round out the top tier. Flaherty has a plus matchup against light-hitting San Francisco, who have a .300 wOBA and 84 wRC+ against righties on the year. He's allowed two or fewer runs in 10 straight starts and looks as stable as they come. Greinke has failed to reach 30 FDP in consecutive starts, and his strikeouts have been down of late. Targeting the Brewers lineup is never enjoyable, but they do fan 25.0 percent of the time, giving Greinke some low-ownership GPP appeal over the other top arms.
There's a steep, steep drop off after the upper echelon. Mitch Keller ($8,000) brings huge strikeout potential (11.8 per 9) against lowly Miami and their 25.4 percent whiff rate, 75 wRC+ and .282 wOBA, but he's also allowed 15 runs in his last three starts, lasting only 14.1 innings. Mike Foltynewicz ($7,800) has averaged 30 FDP in five starts since his recall from Triple-A but hasn't been efficient, making it longer than six innings only once. The Jays' 24.9 percent fan rate is worth targeting, but he allowed eight hits across just 4.2 frames against them in his last appearance. Both Keller and Foltynewicz are GPP only targets.
Jon Lester ($7,100) and Sandy Alcantara ($6,800) look to be about as low as I'd go on the bump. Alcantara has averaged 31.6 FDP over his last five outings, and while the Pirates don't strike out much (18.1 percent), they have posted only a 91 wRC+ in the second half. Lester's recent game log has been erratic, and the Mariners rank 13th against lefties with a .327 wOBA, but they also fan 25.2 percent of the time. Mix in the Cubs' win chances (-224 favorites), and Lester seemingly has a stable floor.
Key Chalk/Value
Minnesota-Boston looks like the most obvious game to target with Rick Porcello facing off against Randy Dobnak, and the latter may give way to bullpen options early as he's not stretched out. J.D. Martinez ($4,500) is likely priced too low given the heater he's on, and while Mookie Betts ($3,800) is priced fairly for his form, he isn't going to be cheaper than this on most days. Porcello has been decent at home, but has marginally worse splits against lefties, so targeting Jorge Polanco ($4,100), Eddie Rosario ($3,700) or Max Kepler ($3,500) may work better than paying up for Nelson Cruz ($4,300).
Chi Chi Gonzalez doesn't figure to offer much resistance to the Dodgers' lineup. He's allowing a .435 wOBA and 1.056 OPS to lefties, making Cody Bellinger ($4,700) an easy choice. Injuries are making it challenging to stack opposite-handed bats here, and while there's nothing wrong with sprinkling in some righties, Corey Seager ($3,200) and Matt Beaty ($2,800) can offer some value.
Cardinals bats figure to be targeted frequently against Dereck Rodriguez, but he's been far more vulnerable to lefties than righties, something the St. Louis lineup is short on. Maybe a look at Kolten Wong ($3,100), who has hit safely in seven straight games, makes sense, though Matt Carpenter ($3,000) likely doesn't.
A potentially less obvious game to target is San Diego at Arizona, where unknown quantity Ronald Bolanos faces Merrill Kelly. Kelly has a 6.95 ERA in the second half, allowing a .441 wOBA and 1.071 OPS to lefties. Queue up Eric Hosmer ($3,400), while Greg Garcia ($2,300) could offer some great value out of the leadoff spot. Bolanos is making his MLB debut after fanning 10.3 per nine and posting a 3.74 xFIP at Double-A. That's a big jump, and with Ketel Marte ($4,000) the only D-back priced at 4k or greater, there's plenty of cheap-ish options to choose from. Eduardo Escobar ($3,900) is surging and makes for a great option as well.
Stacks
Indians vs. Dylan Cease (White Sox)
Francisco Lindor (SS - $4,200), Carlos Santana (1B - $4,000), Jason Kipnis/Mike Freeman (2B/SS, $3,500/$2,500)
Cease has a 5.18 home xFIP, where he's allowing a .420 wOBA and 1.032 OPS to lefties. That plays right into the wheelhouse of Lindor and Santana, the team's top two bats against righties. Santana leads the way with a .387 wOBA and 140 wRC+, with Lindor following at .373/130. The third spot here is a little slippery. Kipnis has missed a few days with a sore wrist, being replaced by Freeman who actually has much better numbers in a smaller sample size. He's the ideal third option due to his price, but both work, as do right-handed power options Yasiel Puig ($3,400) or Franmil Reyes ($3,700) if you prefer more upside.
Braves vs. Wilmer Font/T.J. Zeuch (Blue Jays)
Freddie Freeman (1B - $4,300), Josh Donaldson (3B - $3,500), Ozzie Albies (2B - $3,300)
Font is set to open for the Jays, and while he's been decent, he'll give way to Zeuch sooner than later. The right-hander will be making his MLB debut after fanning just 4.5 per nine at Triple-A while allowing a 5.38 xFIP. We don't envision that going well. The Braves lineup is incredibly top heavy but has proven capable of big innings regularly. With Ronald Acuna ($4,200) scuffling of late, we can use Freeman as an anchor and surround him with cheap upside plays in Albies and Donaldson, who's homered in two of the last three games.
Cubs vs. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
Anthony Rizzo (1B - $4,100), Jason Heyward (OF - $2,600), Kyle Schwarber (OF - $3,100)
Hernandez has a 7.86 road ERA, allowing a .508 wOBA and 1.262 OPS to lefties. That seems too good to be true, and makes Rizzo one of the easiest names to pencil into lineups Tuesday with his team-best .410 wOBA and .251 ISO against righties. Given those obscene splits, we're willing to gamble a little on the Cubs' secondary bats in Heyward and Schwarber just to get more lefties in our lineup. Ian Happ ($2,600) fits the bill as well if he's starting.
