A busy 12-game main slate comes our way Friday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Despite the volume of options, only three arms are priced in five-figures, with five more in the $9,000 range; that's just 33.3 percent of our options as pay ups.
Both of our favorite hitters parks in Denver and Sacramento are present, giving us elevated run totals at 10.5 and 9.5, respectively. No other game sits above 8.5, so it's not exactly a high-scoring slate despite the lack of high-end arms. Top favorites on the slate include the Rays (-174) and Giants (-166). Weather doesn't look to be a factor here. It's dry across the slate, and warm in most places as we inch toward June. Wind could play a slight factor in New York and Los Angeles.
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Pitching
Freddy Peralta, NYM vs. MIA ($9,300): With so many options, paying for a five-figure ace could give you high upside, low rostered boom potential, but I also don't find it necessary and am willing to take a bit less of a ceiling to build a stronger offense. Peralta just faced the Marlins in his last outing and earned 36.0 FanDuel points, and a repeat would be welcomed. Walks have been a concern all year, but Miami takes free passes just 8.7 percent of the time. Homers largely haven't, (1.2 per nine), and the Marlins got him for two in seven innings last time out. Miami has a .129 ISO off righties, so perhaps there's room for growth. Potential outbound winds do give a slight pause.
MacKenzie Gore, TEX vs.KC ($8,600): Two lefties square off in a game where the Rangers are favored, and we've got a low 7.5 run total, so I'll back the cheaper side. I wouldn't fault you for considering Stephen Kolek ($9,800) as a low rostered GPP option due to the Rangers' 27.3 percent K rate against lefties, but it feels like the $1,200 savings is better for a balanced build. Gore has been inconsistent, but his 10.2 K/9 offers potential, and he's been far better at home with a 2.64 ERA, 2.77 xFIP and .244 wOBA allowed. Kansas City has just an 85 wRC+ against lefties.
Zac Gallen, ARI at SEA ($7,200): It's been rather ugly for Gallen overall, but he's quietly averaged 34.0 FDP in his last two, which would be elite at this price. Some of that has come with a boost for wins, and the Diamondbacks are heavy underdogs. And Gallen has lasted six innings just three times, so a quality start seems unlikely. But we'd take 24.0 FDP at this price and be happy. Seattle does rank fifth in the league with a .331 wOBA against righties, but a 23.2 percent K rate could boost Gallen's very meager strikeout totals. Three options here at different prices, all in games with low 7.5 run totals and at least two in favorable ballparks offers a decent blueprint.
Top Targets
Boston's use of an opener puts a minor wrench into this thought, but Brayan Bello is allowing a .453 wOBA and 1.066 OPS to lefties on the road. Jose Ramirez ($3,900) and/or Travis Bazzana ($3,600) look like decent building blocks.
From the Captain Obvious department, Aaron Judge ($4,200) isn't the highest-priced bat but gets a ballpark boost and faces Luis Severino, who's allowing a .433 wOBA and 1.007 OPS to righties at home. Fade at your own risk.
Bargain Bats
Erick Fedde allowed eight runs in his last outing and at least four in three of his last four. Riley Greene ($3,000) is cold, but 3-for-7 with a homer off Fedde. But the White Sox' starter has been more vulnerable to righties, allowing a .422 wOBA. Perhaps a cheap shot at power in Spencer Torkelson ($2,700) pays off.
Kyle Leahy is allowing a .425 wOBA and .971 OPS to lefties. Ian Happ ($3,400) isn't exactly a bargain at this number, so maybe we pivot to Michael Busch ($3,200) or perhaps Moises Ballesteros ($2,700) if he's in the lineup.
It's unclear how Toronto will get through eight or more innings here with Austin Voth and Adam Macko set to eat innings and not inspiring confidence. Colton Cowser ($2,600) is boom or bust, but has three homers in his last 12.
Stacks to Consider
Giants vs. Michael Lorenzen (Rockies): Rafael Devers ($3,500), Luis Arraez ($3,400), Willy Adames ($3,300)
It's rare we can stack offenses in Coors Field, so that we can, speaks to the Giants' volatility. But Michael Lorenzen has been awful, allowing a 10.03 ERA at home; righties have a .428 wOBA and .961 OPS off him, while lefties sit at .541/1.271. This stack gives us ceiling potential in Devers, and floor with Arraez as two lefties atop the order. Adames is surging, hitting .333 with four homers in his last 12, a second ceiling play at a favorable price while not forcing us to pay up for Casey Schmitt ($4,200).
Blue Jays at Trevor Rogers (Orioles): Kazuma Okamoto ($3,100), Vladimir Guerrero ($3,000), George Springer ($2,800)
Rogers has been marginally better at home but still generally bad all season. He hasn't lasted more than 4.2 innings in any of his last four starts, allowing 22 hits and 20 runs in those outings. Righties are getting him for a .399 wOBA and .911 OPS. Guerrero's power has been nonexistent, but he is hitting .357 in his last five with a known history at Camden Yards. Springer and Okamoto give us two additional power-threat righties atop the order, though neither are in good form. Highly volatile, but high ceiling in a game I think has potential to be higher scoring than the 8.5 run total.
