This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The majority of games Saturday start at 4:05 p.m. EDT, so that will be the focus of the article today. There are nine matchups to work with compared to only four beginning at 7:05. The top tier of pitching features a number of strong selections, though there are no aces. Meanwhile, the middle group is fairly indistinguishable. Focusing on matchups is likely to be the differentiating factor given the relatively flat level of talent. The best hitting environment appears to be in Cincinnati between the Reds and Yankees.
Pitchers
Max Scherzer ($10,300) represents the second-highest salaried option among the pitchers and admittedly hasn't looked like what we've come to expect from him. Across a limited sample of only 27.2 innings, he's maintained a 22.4 percent strikeout rate. That mark may not go up tremendously against a contact-oriented Guardians' lineup, but Scherzer should be a decent bet to top 20 DK points – enough to qualify as a solid cash-game option.
It would've seemed a bit ambitious to put Hunter Brown ($9,600) into the same tier as Aaron Nola ($9,200) to begin the season, but that's where things currently stand. Brown has been superior in almost every measure and will be facing the Athletics. Nola carries the longer track record that we should still be relying upon, but draws a more difficult Cubs lineup. On paper, Brown is clearly the better short-term play.
Jon Gray ($8,300) has posted 30.8 and 29 DK points in each of his last two outings. That's spiked his salary, which is typically not the best time to roster a pitcher. But Gray gets a matchup against the Rockies away from Coors, so he should keep his run going.
Braxton Garrett ($6,300) is one of the few pitchers in the lower tiers that stands out. He's struck out 14 batters across his last two outings over 10.1 innings. On Saturday, he draws a start against the Giants, a team that strikes out at the second-highest rate in the league and is mediocre as measured by both wRC+ and wOBA.
Top Hitters
Luke Weaver has been interesting due to his strikeout rate, but he's also served up eight home runs across 27.1 innings. Aaron Judge ($6,200) has reminded everyone he's the premier power hitter over the last week, and he'll be in a great spot at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
Lourdes Gurriel ($4,300) has flashed significant power of late with a .611 slugging percentage with seven extra-base hits across his last 10 appearances. Roansy Contreras has limited the long ball this year, but the rest of his skills have been lacking.
Value Bats
Matt McLain ($3,200) has enjoyed a hot start to his career while hitting second against right-handed pitching. He remains undervalued and is in line for a strong performance against Jhony Brito, who only lists a 6.3 K-BB% and a 5.22 SIERA.
Brandon Pfaadt showed signs of turning things around in his last start, but he's still allowed seven homers from his first 14.2 ML innings while only posting a 7.7 K-BB%. Carlos Santana ($3,300) isn't anywhere near his prime, but occupies a key spot in the Pirates' order with a decent chance the team can rack up some runs.
Stacks to Consider
Rays vs. Brewers (Eric Lauer): Josh Lowe ($5,000), Randy Arozarena ($5,500), Isaac Paredes ($3,500)
It's a relatively poor pitching slate, so Lauer may not stand out as the most obvious pitcher to target. But on a more typical day, he has the skills – or lack thereof – that we look for, highlighted by a high walk (10.6%) and homer rate (2.3 HR/9). He'll face one of the more prolific lineups Saturday and isn't likely to fare well. The Rays regularly rotate their lineup, so pay attention when building the stack.
Yankees vs. Reds (Luke Weaver): Gleyber Torres ($4,700), Aaron Judge ($6,200), Anthony Rizzo ($4,700)
Great American Ballpark stands out as the game environment and park to target Saturday afternoon, and I'd be interested in a whole-game stack. If we're identifying one team, it's pretty apparent the Yankees' roster is superior with a combination of on-base ability and power. The Reds offer some decent values that will likely be less popular, so keep them in mind.
