This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Alright, we have one proper day of the MLB season in the books, so clearly we're all experts on how this year is going to play out! Or not! Obviously, there is much still to be learned, and my assessments of DFS matchups is based almost exclusively on past seasons (and offseason news). There are eight games on the DFS slate for Friday, with the first pitch at 7:07 p.m. ET. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. ATH ($8,300): None of the three worst offenses in terms of runs scored from last year are playing in this slate, so that eliminates some of the usual obvious options. Even with a couple mashers, though, the not-Oakland Athletics finished 26th last year with a collective .301 OBP. Castillo's 3.64 ERA last year is not what the Mariners envisioned when they dealt for him, but in the team's pitcher-friendly ballpark he had a 3.15 ERA and 1.1 HR/9 rate.
Jeffrey Springs, ATH at SEA ($7,500): Why not flip this one around? I did mention Seattle's pitcher-friendly ballpark, after all. When you look at home/road splits for Mariners pitchers, or Teoscar Hernandez's numbers surrounding his one season with the team, a clear story unfolds. When Springs was available to the Rays the last few seasons, which was mostly in 2022, he had a 2.44 ERA. There are no workload restrictions on him to start 2025, and he might be ready to make his mark in the opener.
Merrill Kelly, ARI vs. CHC ($7,300): This is less about the matchup and more about Kelly's chances of improving in 2025. Well, that, and the fact Arizona has a pitcher-friendly park thanks to its humidor. Kelly's 4.03 ERA wasn't bad, but that was also over only 13 starts. He got four outings in to start the year and then couldn't take the MLB mound again until August. In 2023 he had a 2.59 ERA at home, and in 2022 it was 3.02. A healthy Kelly has consistently pitched well in Arizona, so don't sleep on him.
Top Targets
I picked Vladimir Guerrero ($5,300) for AL MVP, so allow me a bit of flag-planting here. Also, the matchup is good, so that helps. "Vladito" tore it up late last year to post a .940 OPS with 30 homers and 44 doubles. He's also a righty that has consistently shown more power against his fellow righties, having slugged .501 in those matchups since 2022. Charlie Morton is trying to remain a viable MLB pitcher at 41, but last year righties hit .266 against him. They also hit 14 home runs, compared to nine from lefties, even though Morton faced fewer right-handers.
Though Rafael Devers ($5,000) didn't want to be a designated hitter, it will make things easier on him. He slugged .519 over the prior four seasons and had a .986 OPS against righties last year. Jack Leiter may be a good MLB pitcher at some point. He was a good Triple-A pitcher last season. However, across 35.2 innings in the majors he had an 8.83 ERA and his 5.66 FIP isn't much more encouraging.
Bargain Bats
You need a catcher for your DraftKings lineup, and Yainer Diaz ($4,200) stands out to me. In his career he has a .901 OPS at home, but also an .817 OPS versus his fellow righties. It's usually not a good sign for a pitcher when the last bit of news about him prior to Opening Day is that he managed to make the rotation. On top of that, making Tylor Megill start on the road feels almost unfair. Since 2022 he has a 3.50 ERA at home, but a 6.02 ERA on the road.
Because Paul Skenes was hurling for the Pirates on Opening Day this was my first time really delving into the Marlins' lineup and…are we being pranked? Is Miami celebrating April Fool's Day early? This is a profoundly-lackluster lineup, and yet here we are. Griffin Conine ($2,700) is not merely a Marlin out of nepotism, as he had an .819 OPS at Triple-A last year and then had a .777 OPS in 30 games with the big league club. He's also a lefty, so he should draw into the lineup against Mitch Keller. While Keller will surely have a few starts in a row where he deals, we've all learned not to buy into him at this point. Since 2022 he has a 5.05 ERA on the road.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs (Jameson Taillon): Corbin Carroll ($5,800), Ketel Marte ($5,500), Josh Naylor ($4,700)
I believe the 3.27 ERA Taillon put up in 2024 is misleading as a predictor of his performance for 2025. He had a 3.92 FIP and only struck out 6.80 batters per nine innings. In fact, his swinging-strikeout rate was a paltry 8.7. Not only that, he has a 4.66 ERA on the road since 2022. This Diamondbacks trio could quickly make people forget about Taillon's ERA from last year in a handful of plate appearances.
Few have given up on Carroll after last year, and I think that is wise. Even in a down year he still picked up 22 homers and 35 stolen bases. Plus, his home OPS only dropped to .856 last season, which a lot of hitters would happily take. Marte wasn't going to really challenge Shohei Ohtani for NL MVP even if he had stayed healthy, but he was putting up MVP-caliber numbers nonetheless. He slashed .292/.372/.560 with 36 home runs in 136 games as a second baseman. The switch-hitter crushed lefties, but his .841 OPS versus righties is also encouraging. Naylor, a newly minted Diamondback, gives me another lefty against a right-hander pitcher. His lack of walks impacts his OPS, but since 2022 he's hit .279 against righties and slugged .496 in those matchups.
Pirates at Marlins (Connor Gillespie): Oneil Cruz ($4,800), Bryan Reynolds ($4,500), Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($2,500)
The Pirates don't have much better of a lineup than the Marlins, but they are good enough for a viable stack. Gillespie made his MLB debut last year, his age-26 season, with the Guardians. He picked three games out of the bullpen. In Triple-A, again as a 26-year-old pitcher, he had a 4.96 FIP. The only time in the minors Gillespie finished with a FIP below 4.16 was in rookie ball. I think quickly the righty will prove not to be viable as an MLB starter, so I am getting this stack in while I can. Plus, the Marlins' bullpen looks awful.
Last year Cruz managed to stay healthy (even if he didn't manage to learn any plate discipline) and managed 21 homers and 22 stolen bases in 146 games. The lefty has an .808 OPS against righties in his career as well. In three of the last four seasons Reynolds has hit exactly 24 home runs, and in each of those seasons he's had between 29 and 35 doubles to boot. The last couple campaigns the switch-hitter has tallied double-digit swiped bags for good measure. With Cruz in the outfield, Kiner-Falefa has himself a regular gig at shortstop for 2025. By no means a remarkable hitter, he did bat .269 with eight homers, four triples and 11 stolen bases in 2024. Though he is a righty, his .717 OPS against right handers last year was better than his performance against lefties, and it is easier to steal on right-handed pitchers anyway.
