Best Bet Today for College World Series
The College World Series is here! It's been four months, but we finally made it to the promised land in what feels like the blink of an eye. Some surprises, some obvious choices, but regardless we're in for quite a show.
If anybody is new to the sport or needs a refresher, the College World Series essentially works the same as the regionals in terms of format. Double elimination, four teams in one group. If you go 3-0, you move to the finals.
Friday's slate features the left side with West Virginia-Troy and Ole Miss-UNC. I know which game I'm going with.
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Ole Miss Rebels (+122) vs. North Carolina Tarheels (-156) | Total: 7.5
When I was sitting at home last Sunday watching the game three between USC-UNC, I knew which team I was pulling for. Ole Miss had already advanced and was awaiting the winner. While UNC is the more fundamentally sound and consistent team, something about the Trojans scared me a bit with their recent hot streak at the plate and big time strikeout pitchers. I hoped UNC would pull it off because despite their make up, I felt Ole Miss matched up better against them.
Off the rip, a lot of bettors and people I've heard from assume it's UNC that should beat the Rebs, but I'm saying not so fast.
Ole Miss has opted to not go with Hunter Elliott in the crucial first game. Although he's been to the dance before and is a seasoned vet, I understand it. Elliott hasn't been great this year. On the other hand, Taylor Rabe has been money and I've even heard somebody try to make the comp that maybe he's the next Cade Horton. In the second half of the year, Rabe has emerged as not just a pivotal cornerstone for the Rebs, but one of the best pitchers in the country.
Pitching to a 3.71 ERA and 98 K: 11 BB ratio across 70.1 innings, Rabe has given his guys a chance to win nearly every single time out. As of late, he's shoved in the big moments against Alabama, Nebraska, and Auburn for a combined 30 K, 4 BB, 3 ER across 19 frames. Now he draws a UNC lineup that is very capable, but not as good as what we saw in recent years.
The Heels don't hit for a ton of power (80 HR), don't steal a ton of bases (62), but do hit for a solid average (.293). Owen Hull has been their most valuable offensive weapon (.390 avg, 7 HR, 17 SB), while Gavin Gallaher has been the biggest HR threat (12 HR). Overall, the Heels have some good players on offense, but it hasn't been outrageous this season. If Rabe continues to do his thing, he should limit this lineup big time. And don't forget, the CWS is played in Omaha, a huge ball park, where it's very difficult to find cheap homers.
After his complete game shutty with the season on the line last week, UNC is turning the ball over to their seasoned vet, Jason DeCaro. It's been great year for the junior, pitching to a 2.28 ERA, 84 K: 38 BB ratio across 87 frames. Prior to the masterpiece he twirled against USC last week, he had been struggling a bit. DeCaro hasn't been known as a strikeout artist, and even against an Ole Miss team that swings and misses quite a bit, it might be a difficult ask.
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There's no doubt the Rebs lineup punches out a ton. 657 times is the second most in the country. Usually that kind of approach hasn't historically done well in Omaha, but Ole Miss may be the exception. Led by Judd Utermark (.312 avg, 22 HR, 1.071 OPS) and Tristan Bissetta (.277 avg, 23 HR, 1.004 OPS), Ole Miss has found ways to win via the long ball. Obviously it's tougher to hit it out of Omaha, but it definitely can be done. They've had other contributors lately. But the real interest comes against DeCaro who is not a big punchout guy.
Both of these teams have been here before. Ole Miss won it all in 2022. It should be a great game, but I feel like Ole Miss has this "IT" factor right now. Game 1 is so crucial to win to not fall behind and have to rally. There's a lot of love on UNC right now, but the Rebs are so dangerous. I can't turn my back on them, especially at the price. I have Hotty Toddy winning in a close one.
Pick: Ole Miss ML +122 (FD)
