Closer Encounters: 2023 First Impressions

Looking back at my 2022 Saves in Review series, a save was recorded in 50.7 percent of MLB wins. Through April 10, that percentage stands at 48.4 percent — 75 saves out of 155 wins — which is certainly within expectations.

All 30 teams have recorded at least one save, including the 10-0 Tampa Bay Rays, who had previously won their first nine games by 4-plus runs prior to Monday's 1-0 win over Boston. The Pirates and Blue Jays lead the league with six team saves apiece, while the Guardians rank third with five.

51 pitchers have combined for the 75 saves that have been recorded thus far. Of those 51 pitchers, 15 have tallied multiple saves. Here's a quick look at the saves leaderboard through Apr. 10:

For the most part, these names are ones we're familiar with, but the most surprising name near the top of the saves leaderboard is Pierce Johnson, who has been Bud Black's go-to reliever in the ninth inning with Daniel Bard (anxiety) on the injured list.

Some notable relievers who have yet to record a save thus far include: Ryan Pressly, Carlos Estevez, Alex Lange and Brusdar Graterol.

2023 First Impressions

Let's start at the top of 2023 closer ADP, where at least one of our security blankets has raised some eyebrows early in the season.

Guardians - Known for his impeccable control, Emmanuel Clase has already issued four free passes through six innings pitched after walking just 10 batters all of last season. He's tied for third in the league with three saves, but has also blown a save after giving up a game-tying home run in Oakland of all places. The velocity on Clase's cutter is sitting at 98 miles per hour after he averaged 99.5 mph on the pitch last year. His previously 91.9 mph slider currently sits at 89.8 mph.

To put this in perspective, one of my favorite Guardians-focused accounts on Twitter had this to share after Clase's second appearance of the season back on Apr. 1:

While the velocity dip is certainly worth monitoring, a quick glance at Clase's career ERA splits by month show us he has been a slow starter:

Keep in mind, the warmest game the Guardians have played in thus far was 57 degrees, with most of the games being contested in the low-40's. We all know it's harder to get loose in cold temperatures. Also remember Cleveland's bullpen has been heavily taxed through the first two weeks of the season, having been involved in four extra-inning games already. I'm not completely dismissing the warning signs, but my concern level with Clase is pretty low.

Astros - After taking a loss in relief on Opening Day, then subsequently missing a few games due to an illness, many were concerned about the aforementioned Ryan Pressly. The 34-year-old's 4-seam fastball velocity is down, averaging 93.6 miles per hour on average compared to last year's 94.5 mark. However, he's throwing his heater far less often early in 2023, with a mere 22.4 percent pitch usage compared to 32.6 percent last season.

Instead, Pressly is throwing more sliders and changeups with great success and efficiency. In his four appearances since Opening Day, he hasn't allowed a baserunner and has averaged just 11.5 pitches per outing. If you're worried about Pressly's lack of saves, don't be alarmed. Through five appearances, he's come in during a tie game twice, once when the Astros were down a run and the other two times when Houston was leading by four or more runs. The saves will come.

Pirates - Pittsburgh (6-4) has been surprisingly competitive and their 2.95 bullpen ERA ranks seventh in the league thus far. David Bednar has struck out seven over four scoreless innings and is tied for the league lead with four saves. Colin Holderman has established himself as Bednar's primary setup man and also has yet to be scored upon through four innings. Dauri Moreta has struck out eight over 4.2 scoreless innings but has also walked four batters. Bednar's security as the Pirates' closer has been high partially due to the lack of competition within his own bullpen, but perhaps he'll need to look over his shoulder a bit more in 2023 with his teammates performing well thus far.

Rangers - Texas is heralded for its elite starting pitching, but it has been the bullpen that has really stood out through the first few weeks of 2023. This unit has compiled a 1.94 ERA that ranks third in the league and is led by veterans Jose Leclerc and Will Smith, who have yet to allow a run through 6.2 combined innings. Rangers manager Bruce Bochy indicated on Opening Day that Leclerc would close to start the season, so it was a surprise that Smith got the call for Texas' first save chance. Leclerc did get the next opportunity, though, converting the save against Baltimore's 3-4-5 pocket. Based on limited usage early in the season, Leclerc is the highest-leverage reliever, while Smith appears likely to be used when the matchups are favorable for him.

Dane Dunning, who lost his spot in the starting rotation after Texas signed Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi this offseason, has excelled in his transition to a multi-inning relief role with 9.1 scoreless frames.

Angels - Staying in the AL West, Phil Nevin must enjoy torturing fantasy baseballers who invested in the Angels bullpen for saves. The team's first two saves of the season have gone to Tucker Davidson (of the 4-inning variety) and Jose Quijada, respectively. Not Carlos Estevez. Not Jimmy Herget, or even Ryan Tepera.

To be fair, the matchups were in Quijada's favor the night was used in the ninth inning to preserve a 4-3 lead at Seattle. The southpaw — who held left-handed batters to a .115 batting average last season — was summoned to face Seattle's 8-9-1 hitters, a L-L-R pocket of Jarred Kelenic, J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodriguez.

Jeff Fletcher, an Angels beat writer, had a clarifying series of tweets after the game:

I still think Estevez, who had a disastrous spring but has somewhat corrected course since then, leads Los Angeles in saves at the end of the season. If you're considering dropping him, I'd hold on for another couple of weeks.

Diamondbacks - Arizona had one of the messiest closing situations in the league coming into 2023 and it remains as such two weeks into the season. The D'Backs have recorded four saves overall, with two going to southpaw Andrew Chafin, one going to the market favorite during draft season, Scott McGough, and the other to Drey Jameson, who is now primed to enter the starting rotation after Zach Davies (oblique) went on the IL.

McGough racked up 69 saves over the past two seasons overseas, but he hasn't gotten off to the best start in his return to MLB. The 33-year-old right-hander owns an 8.10 ERA after allowing three home runs through 3.1 innings. After recording his first save of the season on April 2, he allowed back-to-back homers the very next night to blow his second opportunity. However, he does have three holds and a save through five appearances, thus solidifying a high-leverage role. I don't think he's out of the mix for saves just yet.

Chafin has been fantastic with a win, two saves and seven strikeouts over 4.1 scoreless frames. I'm reluctant to remove the "committee" label from this hierarchy, but if the lefty keeps pitching like this, I may be forced to sometime soon.

Keep an eye on Miguel Castro, who has historically struggled with walks but has a 0.55 WHIP and five strikeouts in 3.2 scoreless innings thus far. If Chafin regresses and McGough's struggles continue, he'd probably be next in line for saves in Arizona.

White Sox - Great news out of Chicago with Liam Hendriks announcing he is cancer-free. Since his treatment had been going well, the White Sox only placed him on the 15-day IL to start the season. There have been rumblings of Hendriks returning sometime in May, which may seem optimistic, but remember he was throwing long toss and bullpen sessions during spring training. Relievers typically don't require as big of a ramp up period as starters do.

In the meantime, White Sox manager Pedro Grifol has not been shy about using Reynaldo Lopez in leverage situations. Lopez has allowed at least one earned run in three of his five appearances thus far, but his latest outing on April 10 was impressive, as the right-hander struck out three over 1.1 innings to tally his second save. I expect Lopez to continue receiving the majority of the White Sox's save chances until Hendriks returns. Those who are still rostering Kendall Graveman in hopes he will join the mix can drop him.

Rockies - Rockies manager Bud Black recently shared an update on Daniel Bard (anxiety), noting the right-hander is "getting more confidence in his arm strength and with his pitches" after tossing three successful bullpen sessions in a row. There is still no timeline for Bard's return, but it's encouraging to hear he is progressing.

Pierce Johnson has been excellent in Bard's absence, converting three saves in as many chances while striking out seven over four innings (four appearances). If Johnson were to scuffle anytime soon, the Rockies could turn to setup man Justin Lawrence, who racked up 39 saves in the minors and recorded his first at the big-league level towards the end of last season. Lawrence has struggled with walks in his young career (6.0 BB/9), but he's a reliever worth monitoring as long as he's not issuing too many free passes.

Side note: this column will be on a temporary hiatus until early May, as I will soon be enjoying my honeymoon with my lovely wife.