Closer Encounters: 2022 Saves in Review, Part 2

I hope you enjoyed Part 1 of my 2022 Saves in Review. Having context on how saves were distributed in general, as well as how all 30 teams approached saves this past season, should better inform how we attack the category during our 2023 drafts.

For Part 2 of my 2022 Saves in Review, I'd like to focus on four things:

1. Analyzing saves as they were drafted in the 2022 NFBC Main Event
2. Analyzing saves as they were available throughout the season via FAAB/waivers
3. My saves strategy in 2022, with supporting evidence as to how that strategy performed
4. My closer hits and misses from 2022

Let's dive right in!

Analyzing Saves as Drafted in the 2022 NFBC Main Event

In the 2022 NFBC Main Event, a 15-team format with weekly in-season FAAB and an overall prize component, there were 57 pitchers drafted as save sources in greater than 50 percent of its 47 leagues. These 57 pitchers combined for 723 saves in 2022, meaning 58.7 percent of MLB's 1,232 total saves were accounted for through the majority of Main Event drafts.

• 283 of these 723 saves (39.1 percent) were drafted by the end of Round 5 (pick 75).
• 439 of these 723 saves (60.7 percent) were drafted by the end of Round 10 (pick 150).
• 139 of these 723 saves (19.2 percent) were drafted between rounds 11 and 20.
• 145 of these 723 saves (20.1 percent) were drafted between rounds 21 and 30.

Here are the 57 pitchers listed in order of their Main Event ADP:

If we look at the top 15 closers (Closer 1) by Main Event ADP:

• 8/15 (53.3 percent) earned 30 or more saves in 2022. This includes the only two closers — Emmanuel Clase and Kenley Jansen — who eclipsed 40 or more saves.
• 10/15 (66.7 percent) earned 20 or more saves.
• 14/15 (93.3 percent) earned 10 or more saves.
• Only one of the top 15 closers drafted (6.7 percent) earned less than 10 saves, that being Aroldis Chapman.
• Six of the top 15 closers (40 percent) hit the waiver wire for a significant chunk of the 2022 season: 
  • Raisel Iglesias and Taylor Rogers were dropped due to the mid-season trades that impacted their roles.
  • Aroldis Chapman, Corey Knebel and Mark Melancon were cut due to poor performance that forced their respective teams to remove them from closing duties.
  • Giovanny Gallegos simply saw his role change due to the emergence of Ryan Helsley.
  • Josh Hader and Craig Kimbrel were omitted from this group but were also dropped in a small number of Main Event leagues.
• The top 15 closers were drafted between rounds 2 through 9 on average.

If we look at the 16th through 30th closers (Closer 2) by Main Event ADP:

• Only one (6.7 percent) earned 30 or more saves: Gregory Soto.
• Just 3/15 (20 percent) earned 20 or more saves: Soto, Camilo Doval and Paul Sewald. David Bednar just missed the cut with 19 saves.
• 6/15 (40 percent) earned 10 or more saves.
• The majority of pitches in this group — 9/15 (60 percent) — earned less than 10 saves and weren't worth rostering for the majority of the season.
• These pitchers were drafted between rounds 10 through 19 on average.

Looking at the 31st through 45th closers (Closer 3) by Main Event ADP:

• None of these pitchers earned 30 or more saves.
• Only one (6.7 percent) reached 20 saves in 2022: David Robertson, the 39th closer drafted on average.
• 5/15 (33.3 percent) earned 10 or more saves, but three of these five (Devin Williams, Dylan Floro and Kyle Finnegan) got the majority of their saves in the second half and may have been dropped early in the season.
• The majority of CL3 drafted in the Main Event — 10/15 (66.7 percent) — earned less than 10 saves, with only Rowan Wick (nine saves) and Will Smith (five) recording more than three. None of those 10 pitchers were likely rostered for very long.
• Only Robertson, Williams and Tanner Rainey were worth rostering long term.
• These pitchers were drafted between rounds 20 through 26 on average.

Also worth noting from 2022 Main Event drafts:

• As the 56th closer drafted on average, Daniel Bard (34 saves) was the best and only round 25+ value pick. He was drafted in the majority (53 percent) of Main Event leagues.
• 40 pitchers were drafted as potential save sources in the majority of leagues after round 10, but the hit rate for these save sources was particularly low, with only Bednar, Doval, Sewald, Robertson and Bard (5/40 — 12.5 percent) contributing 19 or more saves in 2022.
• On the flip side, 10 of the 17 (58.8 percent) save sources drafted between rounds 1 and 10 were hits, while four others (Iglesias, Gallegos, Kimbrel and Melancon) weren't complete busts in the category despite some finishing the season as poor values relative to draft cost (Iglesias, Gallegos).
• Only three of the 17 (17.6 percent) closers drafted within the first 10 rounds were complete busts: Chapman, Knebel and Andrew Kittredge, the latter of whom busted due to injury rather than performance.
• Other closer busts relative to 2022 preseason expectations include: Matt Barnes (eight saves), Jake McGee (three), Lou Trivino (11), Joe Barlow (13) and Dylan Floro (10).

2022 Saves via FAAB / Waiver Wire

If 723 saves were already accounted for in the majority of the 47 Main Event drafts, that means 509 of MLB's 1,232 total saves (41.3 percent) were available through FAAB. It sure seems like a lot of saves were freely available throughout the 2022 season, but were they really?

Remember from Part 1 that 158 of the 222 pitchers (71.2 percent) who recorded at least one save in 2022 tallied fewer than five saves. Of those 158, only a handful were worth rostering in the 15-team Main Event as significant contributors in the other pitching categories, a group that includes names like Andres Munoz, James Karinchak and Evan Phillips. The remaining majority weren't worth rostering for saves at all. We often chase these saves when we see a reliever like Brett Martin, Jake Diekman or Wil Crowe come through with a save chance, only to never see them get another opportunity over the rest of the season. Meanwhile, we've wasted precious FAAB dollars and a weekly lineup spot on this speculative saves source, only to see the inevitable blowup occur and impact our ratios.

However, there were some FAAB gems throughout the 2022 season who are worth highlighting with respect to the saves category:

• Jorge Lopez (23 saves) wasn't drafted in the majority of Main Event leagues (only 13 of 47), but was primarily added through FAAB within the first few weeks of season.
• Clay Holmes (20 saves) was actually drafted in one Main Event league but was primarily added through FAAB during weeks five through seven.
• There were only six relievers that went completely undrafted in the 2022 Main Event and made a significant impact with 10 or more saves — Tanner Scott (20), Ryan Helsley (19), Felix Bautista (15), Rafael Montero (14), Dany Jimenez (11) and Alexis Diaz (10).
• Helsley was one of the most valuable waiver wire pickups of 2022, since he also contributed nine wins, 94 strikeouts and maintained excellent ratios. 
• Jhoan Duran (eight saves) was another waiver wire gem who didn't exactly flourish in the saves category but could have really taken off if the Twins had made him their closer for an extended period.

Among other mostly undrafted relievers that did not rack up a ton of saves, these nine pitchers were at least semi-reliable save sources at some point during 2022:

• Emilio Pagan (nine saves) - Was the Twins' primary closer for the first three months of 2022
• Seranthony Dominguez (nine) - Was the Phillies' committee leader for a few months after Knebel was removed from the closer role
• Jimmy Herget (nine) - Tallied 50 percent of the Angels' remaining saves after Raisel Iglesias was traded mid-season
• Pete Fairbanks (eight) - Recorded six of the Rays' final 11 saves from August 20 onward
• Tanner Houck (eight) - Was the Red Sox's primary closer during the month of June before getting hurt
• Brandon Hughes (eight) - Was the Cubs' committee leader for a stretch after David Robertson was traded mid-season
• Jose Leclerc (seven) - Was the Rangers' primary closer from mid-August through the end of the season
• Hunter Strickland (seven) - Was the Reds' preferred closer from mid-June through early August
• Domingo Acevedo (four) - Took over as the A's primary closer in mid-September

These three pitchers were drafted in most Main Event leagues, but all were dropped early in the season and then added again later on via FAAB once they stepped back into save chances:

• Kyle Finnegan (11 saves) - Took the reigns for Washington in mid-July when Tanner Rainey required season-ending Tommy John surgery 
• Dylan Floro (10) - Took over the Marlins' closer role during the final month
• Ian Kennedy (10) - Was the Diamondbacks' preferred closer from August through early September

To summarize 2022 saves available via FAAB/waivers:

• The 21 fantasy-relevant relief pitchers who were highlighted in this section combined for 240 saves.
• Since 509 of MLB's 1,232 total saves were available through FAAB, that leaves 269 saves (21.8 percent) unaccounted for. 
• Between FAAB and the draft, we had access to roughly 78 percent of MLB's total saves in 2022, though you should consider this a rough estimate as this exercise wasn't exactly a perfect science.
• 21 fantasy-relevant relief pitchers available through FAAB may seem like a lot, but in the context of a 15-team league with an overall component where literally everyone is looking to acquire these same saves, it's not many at all, especially when you consider all the potential save sources who contribute little to nothing. It's an extremely competitive and costly market, and navigating it can be difficult and frustrating.

My Draft Strategy for 2022 Saves + Results

I was one of many who adopted the 'early closer' strategy for 2022 fantasy baseball drafts. One main reason for this was that most of my drafts took place while the MLB lockout was still in effect, which meant spring training had not yet taken place and transactions were paused. At the time of the lockout, there just weren't many teams whose closing situations had been settled. In fact, only one-third of the league — Arizona, Cleveland, Chicago (AL), Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles (AL), Milwaukee, New York (AL), New York (NL) and Toronto — had clear-cut closers by the time the lockout started. Among those 10 teams, I was only comfortable with seven closers, as Mark Melancon, Gregory Soto and Aroldis Chapman were pitchers I was fading.

Once the lockout ended and we got deeper into spring training, we had a lot more information regarding closer roles. However, my approach to drafting saves did not change. I will note that my strategy for drafting saves was a slightly different for Draft and Hold (D&H) leagues than in leagues that allowed weekly in-season pickups through FAAB. For D&H leagues, there are no in-season roster moves. The players you draft are the players you're stuck with for the entire season. My strategy for D&H leagues was to try to come away with two save sources I was comfortable with, generally from the closers I ranked in my top eight. This required significant investment in the draft, especially in 15-team D&H leagues, as I'd often be taking two closers within the top five or six rounds. For FAAB leagues, I was less strict in my approach to drafting saves. I still wanted to land one of my top eight closers, but typically waited on a second closer until later in my drafts, as I'd be able to address the saves category in-season if needed.

For example, my NFBC Main Event team featured Jordan Romano (round 5) and Lou Trivino (round 17) coming out of the draft, with Ryan Helsley acquired early in the season via FAAB. The 2022 Main Event overall champion, Bob Cramutola, drafted Kenley Jansen (round 5), Jake McGee (round 11) and David Robertson (round 30), while acquiring 14 additional saves from various pitchers throughout the season via FAAB.

So did the 'early closer' strategy work in 2022?

I want to share evidence of how this strategy performed across my 26 NFBC leagues (20 D&H, 6 FAAB). My intention is not to boast, but simply show that the 'early closer' strategy worked, at least for the most part. For what it's worth, this was also a topic that Jeff Erickson and Fred Zinkie explored on their podcast in early September.

In 2022, I amassed 1,554 saves across my 26 NFBC leagues. That's an average of 59 saves per league. First, I'll break down my 15-team leagues, then my 12-teamers.

15 team leagues

One thing I'm proud of this  season is finishing first in the saves category in five of my twelve 15-team NFBC leagues, while finishing in the top-half of the category in 10 of those twelve.

There were also a couple of duds mixed in. In the Draft Champions league where I finished with only four saves all season, Will Smith and Blake Treinen were my closers. My other poor-performing saves team featured Aroldis Chapman paired with Jake McGee and Anthony Bender.

Most of my 15-team save totals were either right in line, or ahead of, the end-of-season 80th percentile results for the category in both the NFBC Draft Champions format (63 saves) and Main Event (67 saves).

12 team leagues

I wasn't as successful accumulating saves in my 12-teamers but still finished in the top half of my leagues on average. I believe this is because saves were more evenly distributed across the league with fewer teams.

The end-of-season 80th percentile results for the saves category in the NFBC Online Championship was 72 saves. It was 66 saves for the NFBC 50 format.

But what about those who waited on closers and saves in 2022?

I cannot say for certain whether waiting on closers was successful or not. I could absolutely see a Scott Barlow and Gregory Soto pairing or a Taylor Rogers and Daniel Bard squad being competitive in the saves category. However, based on what we know from the statistics above, the path to landing a pairing like that was likely pretty difficult. If you were successful in that regard, I'd love to hear from you in the comments, or via Twitter, with details as to who your closers were and whether you needed to target saves via FAAB throughout the season.

Since I was on team "early closer", let's take a look at who my biggest contributors were in the saves category in 2022. Also, for accountability, it's worth noting who my biggest misses were as well. Spoiler alert — I had some big ones!

2022 Hits & Misses

Hit - Jordan Romano, Blue Jays - Romano was my fifth-ranked closer early this season and was someone I touted heavily since this column began. He was on several fade lists entering 2022, as others were unsure whether Toronto would address their closer role with a high-profile free-agent signing or trade (like Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel) after the lockout. However, I wasn't convinced the Blue Jays would make a move like that after acquiring Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards during the 2021 season and signing Yimi Garcia prior to the 2022 lockout. Romano was the closer I was "all in" on, and I put my money where my mouth was by drafting him early and often. Romano was my most-rostered closer in 2022 with seven shares, as I couldn't pass up his round five or six price tag.

Miss - Emmanuel Clase, Guardians - Clase was my seventh-ranked closer heading into the year, making him someone I completely whiffed on since he led the league with 42 saves and was the most valuable closer for fantasy purposes. He didn't have any competition for saves within the Guardians' bullpen entering the year, but Clase's lack of strikeouts compared to other high-profile closers was what ultimately steered me away. Whoops! I'd say that was a pretty big miss.

Hit - Edwin Diaz, Mets - Diaz was my fourth-ranked closer and a primary target during 2022 drafts. Prior to the season, he was the highest-leverage reliever in baseball as measured by 2021 gmLI and was one of the few closers projected for more than 100 strikeouts. Diaz finished 2022 with 118 Ks, 32 saves and a career-best 1.31 ERA (backed by a 0.90 FIP).

Miss - Scott Barlow, Royals - Barlow was my 23rd-ranked closer in my initial 2022 rankings, and I even went as far as to feature him on my fade list. I did come around eventually and moved him up to 16th in my late-March rankings update, but I didn't have a single share of Barlow on any of my 2022 rosters. One of the main reasons I faded him was the range he was going in most drafts, as I simply preferred the hitters who were being drafted around him. Another was my belief in the emergence of Dylan Coleman, who was another whiff of mine this season. Barlow's historically average ratios weren't appealing to me either, but he went on to post career-bests in ERA (2.18), WHIP (1.00) and saves (24) last year despite a fairly sizable decrease in velocity of nearly two miles per hour.

Hit - Ryan Helsley, Cardinals - Helsley was the closer I rostered more than anyone except Romano this season. I didn't draft him in any of my D&H leagues, but I was quick to acquire him early in the season in nearly all of my FAAB leagues. What appealed to me then, aside from his outstanding start, was his increased fastball velocity. He parlayed that extra heat into a 0.48 ERA and 0.48 WHIP by the end of May and didn't even give up his first earned run of the season until May 30. As the Cardinals' highest-leverage reliever, he tallied nine wins in addition to his 19 saves and excellent ratios, making him one of the best FAAB pickups of the entire year.

Miss - Felix Bautista, Orioles - I was just way too late to the party. Dan Connolly of The Athletic wrote a nice feature on Bautista in late July, and I should have put more stock into his fantasy prospects at the time. The rookie right-hander, nicknamed "The Mountain," had been the Orioles' best reliever and the team was fielding trade offers for then-closer Jorge Lopez. Baltimore traded Lopez only a few days later and Bautista immediately capitalized on the vacancy in the ninth inning. He'd serve as the O's closer for essentially the rest of the season, holding the job until he landed on the IL with left knee discomfort on October 3.

Hit - Rafael Montero, Astros - I was among the first to highlight Montero this season, and the timing of that article could not have been more perfect, as the right-hander recorded his first of 14 saves for the Astros the day after it was published. Ryan Pressly had multiple stints on the injured list in 2022 and the leverage ladder behind him in Houston was clear all season, with Montero next in line for saves ahead of Hector Neris, the reliever many expected would be Pressly's backup.

Miss - Clay Holmes, Yankees - Similar to Bautista, I was too late in coming around on Holmes, who was in the conversation as the league's best reliever during the first half of 2022. Admittedly, I was too stubborn about Aroldis Chapman's chances of regaining the closer role for New York. Meanwhile, by the time I was able to stash Holmes later in the year (while he was on the IL), his best outings were already behind him.

2023 Saves

Back in August, I published my first look at closers for 2023 drafts based on a real, far-too-early NFBC Draft Champions league that 14 of my friends and I took part in. One initial question I had heading into the draft was answered based in the first seven rounds, in that we should expect a couple of closers — namely Emmanuel Clase and Edwin Diaz — to go as early as rounds one or two, like Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader did this past season.

As ADP is further established over these coming months, I'll be interested to see how the next tiers of closers settle in. In particular, I'll be trying to identify the 2023 "closer dead zone", which seemed to be between rounds 11 and 20 this past season.

Be sure to stay tuned in the coming weeks and months as I dive in further!