Closer Carousel: Who Earned Saves This Weekend?

Welcome to a new series here at RotoWire. Every Monday and Friday, I'll take a look back at the previous series and wrap up everything you need to know about the rapidly changing closer market.

These articles will contain five parts:

• Who Earned Saves This Week/Weekend? A division-by-division look at who picked up saves in the previous series, as well as "true" blown saves and a few quick notes.
• Closers I'm Worried About: A breakdown of a handful of closers whose jobs seem the most tenuous, as well as a look at the setup men who could be about to step up.
• Bullpen Deep Dive: A closer look at a bullpen where everything is even more up in the air than usual, focusing on key stats and usage trends.
• Injury Round-Up: A quick look at any currently injured closers and their progress toward a return to action.
• Closer Grid: A snapshot of the RotoWire Closer Grid, which can also be found here.

Who Earned Saves This Weekend?

*A pitcher can earn a blown save if he enters in what is technically a save situation prior to the ninth inning and blows the lead. For fantasy purposes, we don't really care about blown saves where a reliever was clearly being used as a setup man and coughed up the lead. What matters to us is when a reliever was genuinely being given a chance to save the game but blew it. Therefore, for the purposes of this article, I'm only going to report blown saves of that variety.

Closers I'm Worried About

Jeff Hoffman, Blue Jays: Hoffman's grip on the Blue Jays' closer job has been weak at best dating back to the offseason, when Toronto reportedly attempted to add a reliever who could replace him in the ninth inning only to settle for setup man Tyler Rogers instead. While he remains the team's closer per manager John Schneider, his hold on the job looks as tenuous as ever right now.

Hoffman blew a save Tuesday against Milwaukee, his third blown save in five chances this year. He faced seven batters in that appearance, walking three and allowing two hits and two runs while retiring just two. He returned to the mound Saturday against Arizona, pitching the bottom of the eighth in a tie game, and proceeded to give up four runs on a walk and three hits, one of which was a Corbin Carroll grand slam.

Hoffman now owns a 7.71 ERA and 2.04 WHIP on the season in 10 appearances. A reliever who was already on thin ice to begin the season can't afford to keep struggling like this if he's intending to keep his closer job. The only things in Hoffman's favor right now are a) the vote of confidence from his manager and b) the fact that his stuff still seems to be there. He's striking out an impressive 41.7 percent of the batters he's faced this season, and his fastball velocity, which dipped to 95.2 mph over his last 15 appearances last season, is back up to 96.6 mph this year. Results matter, though, so don't be surprised if Hoffman's next blown saves leads to a demotion to a lower-leverage role.

Worry-o-meter: 4 out of 5

Setup man to stash: Tyler Rogers or Louis Varland. Rogers was given a three-year, $37 million contract this winter and typically pitches the eighth inning in front of Hoffman, which normally means he'd be the next man up in the event of a closer change. He also owns a 0.84 ERA this season after recording a 1.98 ERA last year. He'd be an atypical closer, though, as he hardly misses any bats, with a 17.5 percent strikeout rate for his career and an 11.4 percent mark this year. Also, his typically excellent walk rate (4.6 percent) has jumped to 9.1 percent this year, though his groundball rate remains elite at 64.7 percent.

Varland would be a more conventional closer should the Blue Jays elect to make a change, and he was widely added on waivers over the weekend as a result. The former Twins starter looked good in his first year as a reliever last year with a 2.97 ERA, and he hasn't given up a run in 11 innings of work so far this season. His 39.0 percent strikeout rate is excellent, and he's walked just 7.3 percent of batters while also adding a strong 54.5 percent groundball rate.

Devin Williams, Mets: Williams twice pitched his way out of the closer role for the Yankees last season, struggling to a 4.79 ERA despite ERA estimators that suggested he deserve far better (2.95 xFIP, 2.67 SIERA). The Mets trusted the underlying numbers enough to give him a three-year, $51 million contract over the winter, but he's rewarded them with a performance that looks much the same as last year.

After a blown save Sunday against the Cubs, Williams now owns a 7.11 ERA and 2.05 WHIP on the season. That comes despite the fact that the ERA estimators continue to love him, with a 2.81 xFIP and 2.39 SIERA both sitting close to his career marks (2.69 xFIP, 2.65 SIERA). Williams' 35.5 percent strikeout rate isn't far off his career mark of 38.3 percent, and his 9.7 percent walk rate beats his career mark of 11.3 percent.

It's easy to chalk this up to nothing more than a small-sample blip, which is why Williams remains low on the worry-o-meter for now. We're talking about 6.1 innings of work after all, basically the equivalent of one appearance for a starting pitcher. Williams' fastball velocity is down, but by less than a tick (94.1 mph to 93.5), well within the normal range for a veteran pitcher easing his way into the season.

There are two reasons to worry here, however. The first is that Williams' vaunted "airbender" changeup is suddenly getting poor Stuff+ grades, as the pitch sits at 85 in that stat after coming in at 129 and 124 the last two years. The pitch is getting 2.5 more inches of horizontal break this year but almost five inches less drop. As a result, batters are hitting .467 against the pitch this season and slugging .667 after hitting .194 and slugging .341 against it last year.

The second reason to worry is that much of Williams' best work in his career has come as a setup man. He broke out as the eighth-inning guy in front of Josh Hader in Milwaukee, and he memorably expressed disappointment in the trade that sent Hader to the Padres in 2022 rather than indicating he was excited to be trusted with the closer job. Williams did pitch very well as the Brewers' closer over the next two and a half seasons, but given that he's struggled first with the Yankees and now with the Mets the last two years, could this be an example a player for whom the over-used "can't do it in New York" argument is actually true? I don't typically believe that line of thinking, but Williams is making a good case for it.

Worry-o-meter: 2 out of 5

Setup man to stash: Luke Weaver is the Mets' highest-leverage reliever behind Williams according to leverage index, so it stands to reason that he'd take over for Williams if a closer chance is to be made, just like he did when the pair pitched for the Yankees last season. The problem is that Weaver hasn't looked good this year, with a 6.23 ERA through nine appearances and an alarmingly low 11.1 percent strikeout rate. 

The Mets could go with a committee if Williams is given a chance to clear his head in a lower-leverage role, in which case Huascar Brazoban and top lefty Brooks Raley could get chances as well. Brazoban is third on the team in leverage index and hasn't allowed an earned run through 9.1 innings this season, but he doesn't miss many bats, with a 21.1 percent strikeout rate this year and a 21.8 percent mark last season. Raley owns a 2.25 ERA in eight innings of work and has a 28.1 percent strikeout rate, but the Mets would probably like to keep him matched up against opposing lefties. 

Emilio Pagan, Reds: The fact that Pagan pitches for Terry Francona, a manager who likes to pick a closer and stick with him, keeps him relatively low on the worry-o-meter for now. Still, a couple factors make him one to watch and earn him a second appearance in this spot this season.

The first is a hamstring issue he's been dealing with recently. It first popped up Tuesday, seemingly on the final pitch of his save that day against the Giants. He didn't pitch the next two days but then threw a scoreless ninth inning for the save Friday against the Twins, but he was bypassed for a save chance in favor of Tony Santillan the following day, with the Reds seemingly afraid of overusing him. Pagan then pitched again Sunday and blew the save, with Graham Ashcraft getting the save in the 10th inning.

The second cause for concern is that Pagan has been notoriously inconsistent throughout his career. He has three seasons with an ERA under 3.00, but none of them in back-to-back years (2019, 2023 and 2025). In every other season since 2018, his ERA has been north of 4.00, so his 4.76 mark this year fits right in. His current ERA doesn't look out of place according to his ERA estimators (5.27 xFIP, 4.62 SIERA), and his 20.8 percent strikeout rate and 12.5 percent walk rate are both career-worst marks. Additionally, his fastball velocity has dropped from 95.8 to 94.2 mph. At some point, even a manager like Francona will look to make a change unless Pagan can turn it around soon.

Worry-o-meter: 2 out of 5

Setup man to stash: Tony Santillan. This situation is clearer than most, as Santillan is second on the Reds in leverage index and was the pitcher who Francona turned to for the save with Pagan seemingly unavailable Saturday. Santillan hasn't allowed a run in 10 innings of work this season and has given up just three hits. That follows a season in which he recorded a 2.44 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. The righty's 16.2 percent walk rate this season is a concern, but he's been able to offset it thus far with a 32.4 percent strikeout rate. If Pagan's hamstring issues send him to the IL or if he's simply demoted to a lower-leverage role, Santillan should slide right into a traditional closer role, one that shouldn't be entirely unfamiliar to him given that he also saved seven games last season. 

Bullpen Deep Dive

Los Angeles Dodgers

*gmLI is the average Leverage Index when a pitcher enters the game. 1.0 is average; closers typically sit north of 1.50.

I had written up a lengthy deep dive on Edwin Diaz in the "Closers I'm Worried About" section which began with the sentence, "Diaz still hasn't been placed on the injured list as of writing, but it sure feels like a move is coming," only for him to indeed be placed on the IL before I could publish this article. Diaz's absence is expected to be a lengthy one, as he'll undergo surgery Wednesday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow and will be sidelined until the All-Star break. Don't be surprised if Diaz's recovery is slow-played and he ends up returning later than initial reports indicate, as the Dodgers won't be concerned with maximizing regular-season wins but will instead be focused on making sure Diaz is as ready as possible for October.

That means save chances for the best team in baseball could be up in the air for most of the rest of the season, and it's not particularly clear who will be getting them. Vesia looks like the favorite based on usage so far this season. He's the only pitcher other than Diaz with a save thus far and leads the team in leverage index. He's yet to give up a run through 10 appearances, and while he's a lefty, the Dodgers have a pair of other southpaws in the pen in Tanner Scott and Jack Dreyer, so they could save Vesia for the ninth inning if they wanted to. For his career, he's been better against lefties (.240 wOBA) than righties (.284 wOBA), but that isn't an extreme enough split that he needs to be used as a specialist.

Fellow lefty Scott would also be a sensible choice. He has 78 career saves and was given closer money last offseason (four years, $72 million) only to struggle to a 4.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He's been far better this year, particularly in terms of his control, and if the Dodgers want an option with proven success in the ninth inning, he'd be the obvious candidate. It's primarily the fact that Vesia has gotten two saves this year while Scott still has none that makes this situation hard to parse.

If the Dodgers go with a committee setup in the absence of Diaz, expect Blake Treinen to see plenty of saves as the top righty in the bullpen. He has 82 career saves and should be quite comfortable in the ninth inning, though he hasn't been used as a dedicated closer since last decade. He's also 37 years old and isn't the pitcher he once was, as his numbers above indicate. Combine his nine appearances this year with his 32 last year and you get a pitcher with a 5.13 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Still, his strong Stuff+ and Location+ numbers indicate that he's far from broken and should continue to get opportunities.

I've included Roki Sasaki on the above table despite the fact that there's been no indication he's about to lose his rotation spot. Perhaps there should be, though, as he's been far from effective. He continues to struggle when used in a starting role despite his dominant numbers in Japan, but he was effective as a reliever in the postseason last year, with three saves, a 0.84 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. If you're looking for an excuse to keep holding onto him or an excuse to pick him back up in leagues where he was dropped, Diaz's injury could be that excuse. He isn't pitching close to well at the moment, though, so it would very much be a long shot to expect him to step into the closer role and immediately turn his season around. 

Injury Round-Up

Kirby Yates, Angels: Yates has begun his rehab assignment as he works his way back from left knee inflammation, and with Jordan Romano struggling after a strong start to the year, Yates could have a real shot at the closer job once he's ready to go. He's expected to need several rehab appearances, however, and he allowed a run in his first rehab inning Friday, so his return may still be a week or more away. 

Josh Hader, Astros: Hader was transferred to the 60-day IL on Friday, though there doesn't appear to be any setback in his recovery from biceps tendinitis. He began throwing live batting practice Tuesday, but he effectively needs to go through a full spring training buildup before he's ready to go. The Astros would be wise to be cautious with his arm given that he also suffered a shoulder strain back in August. Bryan Abreu began the year as the temporary closer but has since pitched his way out of the ninth inning, with Enyel De Los Santos recording a pair of saves last week. 

Daniel Palencia, Cubs: Palencia was placed on the injured list Friday with a left oblique strain. He does not yet have a timetable for his return, but it's the sort of injury which will likely keep him out beyond the minimum 15 days and possibly for closer to six weeks. Hunter Harvey (triceps) and Phil Maton (knee) are also both out, so it was Caleb Thielbar who picked up the save in Palencia's absence Saturday. Ben Brown could also be an option for saves but has thrown multiple innings in all seven of his relief appearances this season, including both the seventh and eighth innings Saturday. 

Edwin Diaz, Dodgers: Covered above in the "Bullpen Deep Dive" section. Diaz will undergo surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow Wednesday and will be out until sometime in the second half. 

Jhoan Duran, Phillies: Duran hit the injured list with a left oblique strain Saturday, an injury which will likely keep him out for roughly the same time as Palencia's similar ailment. Brad Keller, who saved three games for the Cubs last season (plus two more in the playoffs) with a 2.07 ERA and 0.96 WHIP and was signed to a two-year, $22 million contract over the winter, could be the top option to replace him. He hasn't been great this year, though, with a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Jose Alvarado, who has 52 career saves, could also be a candidate, though he has a 9.00 ERA and 1.86 WHIP on the season. He's also lost a tick of velocity after serving a PED suspension last year. 

Edwin Uceta, Rays: Uceta has been working his way back from a right shoulder impingement all season and recently suffered a setback. He'll be shut down from throwing for two or three weeks after being diagnosed with a shoulder strain and then will need to build back up after that, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him shift to the 60-day injured list soon. Bryan Baker remains the top option for saves in the Rays' bullpen. 

Carlos Estevez, Royals: Estevez has been out with a left foot contusion since his first outing of the season, when he was struck by a line drive. Six days ago, Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo said he hoped Estevez would begin a rehab assignment within the next five days, but that hasn't yet happened. Of greater concern for Estevez than his bruised foot is the fact that his velocity has been way down this season. Lucas Erceg has five saves in his absence but has struggled to a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, which leaves the door open for Estevez to reclaim his closer job if his velocity bounces even partway back on his rehab assignment. 

Closer Grid

This article will be published every Monday and Friday this season, taking a look back at the previous series' top closer news. For more closer updates, check out the RotoWire Closer Grid, which changes daily. 

Some notable changes from Friday's grid:

• Dodgers downgraded from Very High to Very Low stability following Edwin Diaz's elbow injury.
• Phillies downgraded from Very High to Very Low stability following Jhoan Duran's oblique injury.
• Caleb Thielbar now the leader of the Cubs' committee rather than Ben Brown.
• Enyel De Los Santos now the leader of the Astros' committee rather than Bryan Abreu.

Here's how the whole thing looks as of Monday evening:

*part of a committee

Questions about any of the closers covered above or any relievers you're considering picking up off the waiver wire? Let me know in the comments below.