Every March, we get together in New York for the Tout Wars Expert League auctions, the last few years at Hotels Edison and Belleclaire for four auctions - the AL-only, NL-only, Mixed League and head-to-head leagues. As is custom, I played in the AL-only league. When you take a look at the results below, bear in mind that these are stand-alone leagues - there is no overall contest, so one doesn't necessarily have to compete in all 10 categories. All Tout Wars leagues use OBP instead of Batting Average. We have a couple of other quirks - instead of both a corner and middle infielder slot, we have just one extra infielder slot. Instead of five outfielders, we're only required to roster four. But in addition to a Utility slot, we have two "Swingman" positions, where you can use any hitter or any pitcher to fill the slots. Finally, our requirements to qualify for a position are a little relaxed - a player needs just 15 games last year and five games this year to qualify for that position.
DRAFT BOARD
Andy Andres won last year's league with a Stars-and-Scrubs strategy that featured Aaron Judge ($50), Tarik Skubal ($34), Logan Gilbert ($28), Brent Rooker ($27), Cal Raleigh ($23) and Jacob deGrom ($22). That clearly worked out well! Interestingly enough, his $1 hitters didn't work out very well (Mauricio Dubon, Yoan Moncada, Esteury Ruiz, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Mitch Haniger, Edouard Julien, J.D. Martinez), but he did pull Lenyn Sosa and Chase Meidroth in reserves. And on the pitching side his non-star efforts bore more fruit, with a $7 Cam Smith and a $1 Kris Bubic.
Given his success, and how he emulated that strategy at AL LABR in early March, we had a pretty good idea that he would try it again. Moreover, with Doug Dennis from BaseballHQ.com in this draft, someone who has priced hitting up at the expense of starting pitching, we knew that hitting would be at a premium. I wanted to devise a strategy that ensured that I'd get enough at bats at each hitting spot, yet not get in a situation where I did last year where my top starter was Bailey Ober - we all know how that turned out.
To get there, I needed to map out my offensive spots with more precision than normal, rather than just taking players at perceived good prices. But instead of just listing a price for each draft slot, I tried to insert a little bit of flexibility. I'm aware that one can't just predict a player's price at each slot and just get him, especially in a room like this. So instead I mapped out a few alternatives - for instance, I wanted to make sure I was set at third base, where the talent drop-off is pretty severe. So I had one contingency for getting Jose Ramirez at cost, another one with Junior Caminero, and yet another with Maikel Garcia, who I had valued at $25. One of my goals was to define early which path I'd take at third base, given the residual effects. I nominated Garcia with one of my first throws, and when his price went above my comfort (Andy Andres bought him for $26, and I didn't want to go to $27), I pivoted to Caminero. So that put me in a tier where I was going to spend a little less at catcher, where I still had defined targets.
I wanted to make those defined targets more explicit than usual, as that might help me remain more disciplined in the auction. I've actually gotten less disciplined over time, and I needed a tool to help me stay more on course to avoid the scourge of $1 hitters littering my roster. It's still possible to win with $1 players, as Andy proved, but it's not my strength.
MY SQUAD
C: Samuel Basallo $10, Danny Jansen $5
Originally I budgeted $25 for two catchers, but knowing that I might rob from this budget to fund other positions. In retrospect, I wish I would have spent the extra dollar or $3 to get Dillon Dingler as my second catcher, or even up to $12 on Carter Jensen. But because I spent a little bit more than I planned on my first two outfielders, I had to change my budget accordingly. But even with that in mind, I wouldn't have been that badly off settling for $1-$2 outfielders. I'm thrilled with Basallo, and his good spring only reinforces that, but in Jansen I was settling for a player in a relatively even timeshare with Kyle Higashioka.
1B/3B: Yandy Diaz $23, Junior Caminero $33
Spending up for a top third baseman was always part of my plan. Spending on $23 on Yandy Diaz was more than I planned on, but went a good way towards cementing a good OBP for my team. Still, there's a risk that I overspent on two Rays given that they're moving back to the Trop after spending last season at Steinbrenner Field. The counterpoint, at least with Junior Caminero, is that he's at an age where he can still improve, and did so on the road in the second half.
2B/SS/INF: Brendan Donovan $13, Corey Seager $23, Paul Goldschmidt $5
While I don't love Donovan - he doesn't run enough to hit for such modest power - he also has good OBP skills and will be leading off in front of a pretty good lineup. In this league, that plays. Better players at this position didn't fit my budget. I really like Seager's price, but it comes at the consequence of missing speed from a speedy position. This is always my problem. Paul Goldschmidt is a carbon-based form of life that will get more plate appearances than Yankees fans will desire.
OF: Roman Anthony $29, Steven Kwan $19, Luke Raley $2, Chase DeLauter $7
Originally I budgeted either $60 for my outfield if it included $50 for Aaron Judge, or just $50 for four outfielders, allocated on a $20-$10-$10-$10 basis. Obviously I didn't strictly adhere to that, but came close enough even though Anthony and Kwan were both over my target prices. Kwan was a bit of a luxury purchase, but also a bit of a buy-low in an OBP league. I've landed on DeLauter late in a lot of leagues, but in an AL-only league he costs a bit more.
UT/SW/SW: Dominic Canzone $3, Brayan Rocchio $3, Jasson Dominguez $3
Dominguez has already been sent down, though I anticipated that when I bought him for $3. Between Giancarlo "Chips" Stanton's healthy and the possibility that Trent Grisham could turn back into a pumpkin, I think he'll get the call soon enough. Canzone has been one of my favorite endgame targets this draft season.
RP: Andres Munoz $24, Kirby Yates $7, Ian Seymour $3
I was a little surprised when the bidding stopped at $7 on Yates, but the joke's on me now, with Yates going on the IL on Tuesday night with a knee issue out of the blue. Munoz was one of three closers I had budgeted for, along with Cam Smith and Aroldis Chapman. I'm listing Seymour as a reliever because that's his role now, but he can obviously start if the Rays so deem that necessary. I don't mind the possibility of him taking on the Ryan Yarbrough role, where he piggybacks after a short start and steals a win or three.
SP: Cole Ragans $22, Kyle Bradish $16, Zach Eflin $4, Michael Wacha $4, Will Warren $1, Jacob Latz $1, Aaron Civale (R), Johan Oviedo (R)
Had I adhered to my outfield budget, I also could have spent on one more starting pitcher, and I was prepared to go that route with my original budget of $80-90 total on pitching. But with offense being at such a premium in this league, I'm ok with this result, too. Ragans came in at a $3 discount for my top ace slot, and Bradish at a $2-4 discount for my SP2 slot. The reason is obvious - both were hurt last year. Eflin has had a good spring, and I tend to think Wacha is undervalued.
CONCLUSION
I like this draft, even after the setback with Kirby Yates's injury. I'm light on speed, and I'm going to have to find one more starting pitcher on the waiver. The RotoWire draft software of course likes this team, along with those of Larry Schechter and Doug Dennis. Doug once again didn't buy a starting pitcher, which made all of the hitters and closers more expensive. That also could create some openings in the trade market, where I'll have to be active.
