Closer Carousel: Who Earned Saves This Week?

Welcome to a new series here at RotoWire. Every Monday and Friday, I'll take a look back at the previous series and wrap up everything you need to know about the rapidly changing closer market.

These articles will contain five parts:

Who Earned Saves This Week/Weekend? A division-by-division look at who picked up saves in the previous series, as well as "true" blown saves and a few quick notes.

Closers I'm Worried About: A breakdown of a handful of closers whose jobs seem the most tenuous, as well as a look at the setup men who could be about to step up.

Bullpen Deep Dive: A closer look at a bullpen where everything is even more up in the air than usual, focusing on key stats and usage trends.

Injury Round-Up: A quick look at any currently injured closers and their progress toward a return to action.

Closer Grid: A snapshot of the RotoWire Closer Grid, which can also be found here.

Who Earned Saves This Week?

Note: since the previous article came out Tuesday due to the long weekend, this section only covers games played from Tuesday through Thursday, omitting those played on Memorial Day.

*A pitcher can earn a blown save if he enters in what is technically a save situation prior to the ninth inning and blows the lead. For fantasy purposes, we don't really care about blown saves where a reliever was clearly being used as a setup man and coughed up the lead. What matters to us is when a reliever was genuinely being given a chance to save the game but blew it. Therefore, for the purposes of this article, I'm only going to report blown saves of that variety.

Closers I'm Worried About

Devin Williams, Mets: Williams shows up in this space for the second straight week despite the fact that he shut the door on the Reds in his only save chance of the week Wednesday. That save could hardly have gone less smoothly, as he walked three batters before eventually getting the job done. Those three walks mean Williams now owns a 15.7 percent walk rate on the season, easily his career high and worse than any other reliever with at least four saves.

Williams has never had good command, with an 11.6 percent walk rate for his career, but he can't afford for it to get even worse if a season in which he's lost the feel for his famous "airbender" changeup. The pitch has gone from a 124 Stuff+ last season to a 90 Stuff+ this season, and all 12 of the runs he's given up this year have come in games where his changeup Stuff+ has come in below 100.

Williams now owns a 6.00 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the season. It doesn't seem like a change in the ninth inning is imminent in Queens, but how much longer can a pitcher with poor results who's lost his feel for his best pitch and is struggling to find the zone continue to save games?

Worry-o-meter: 3 out of 5

Setup man to stash: Luke Weaver. He threw 1.1 scoreless innings against the Reds on Wednesday and now owns a 3.04 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season. He hasn't given up a single run in the month of May, with a 16:4 K:BB in 11.2 innings over that stretch. He also has a bit of experience in the ninth inning, saving 12 games in his career. He briefly took the closer job from Williams while the pair pitched for the Yankees last season, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar thing happen this year with the Mets.

Tanner Scott: I'm not worried about Scott in the sense of fearing that he's slipped from the top spot on the Dodgers' closer depth chart. I am worried, however, in the sense that anyone who thought he'd be the true, locked-in closer while Edwin Diaz recovers from elbow surgery should rethink things.

Scott did record the Dodgers' first four saves after Diaz hit the injured list, though at this point it's worth remembering that it was Alex Vesia who recorded the first two saves after Diaz's injury issues started to pop up. Since Scott's most recent save over two weeks ago, however, the Dodgers have had three saves going to three different pitchers. 

Will Klein picked up the save on May 19 after Vesia, Scott and Blake Treinen all pitched earlier in the game with the score tied. Then Treinen picked up a save Monday, facing the final batter of the game after Vesia recorded the first two outs. Scott was unavailable for that one, having pitched the previous two days, but he was available Wednesday for a game in which the save went to Kyle Hurt, with Scott pitching in the eighth. Scott faced the ninth through third hitters in that game, with Hurt facing hitters four through six, in what looks like an effort to line up Scott against the toughest part of the lineup.

Scott still looks like manager Dave Roberts' most trusted reliever at the moment, but he isn't in a true closer role. With a 1.19 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 33.3 percent strikeout rate and 3.7 percent walk rate, he's been an elite bullpen arm this season and still has plenty of fantasy value, as a reliever with excellent ratios who picks up a handful of saves is quite useful in many formats. In leagues shallow enough that only genuine closers are worth rostering, though, Scott doesn't appear to meet the standard.

Worry-o-meter: 2 out of 5

Setup man to stash: None in shallower leagues, and any number of Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, Will Klein, Kyle Hurt and more in deeper formats. Scott looks like he'll get somewhere around half the save chances until Diaz returns, and he's pitching so well that it would be a surprise if any of those other relievers knocked him off his perch. But saves will be spread around, and all of those four pitchers are throwing the ball well this season, and the Dodgers should win enough games to grant all of them the occasional save chance over the next few months. If a pitcher with a good ERA and WHIP who strikes out plenty of batters and will pick up the occasional save is valuable in your league, you can make a case for any of them.

Bullpen Deep Dive

Detroit Tigers

*gmLI is the average Leverage Index when a pitcher enters the game. 1.0 is average; closers typically sit north of 1.50.

Kenley Jansen will miss at least the next two weeks with pelvic inflammation, and his exact timeline isn't clear, so it could be a good deal longer than that. Even when he returns, there's a real chance the Tigers go with a committee approach, as that's something manager A.J. Hinch seems comfortable with and something he suggested they'd use even after signing Jansen over the winter. With Jansen struggling to a 4.80 ERA prior to his injury, there's no guarantee he remains the top option for saves when he comes back. That means it's worth trying to figure out who's next in line, as that pitcher might become the primary save option not just for the next two weeks but for the next several months.

Drew Anderson is second on the team with two saves, but neither were ordinary save chances. The first save was of the three-inning variety, while the second came in the nightcap of a doubleheader after Jansen, Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest had all pitched in the afternoon contest. Still, he's pitched quite well this season in his first year back from a four-year journey to Japan and Korea, and he has the best strikeout rate among any of the candidates by some margin, so he could find himself in the mix.

Finnegan picked up one conventional save earlier in the year while Jansen was dealing with a day-to-day injury, which might make him the favorite. The 34-year-old has plenty of experience in the ninth inning, with 113 career saves, and he owns the best ERA of the bunch. However, he has four more walks (19) than strikeouts (15) this season, with his ERA estimators suggesting he belongs nowhere near the ninth inning.

Vest's season has been the opposite of Finnegan's. He has a very poor ERA, but good ERA estimators, and the best combination of Stuff+ and Location+ of the group. He also has some experience in the ninth, with 28 career saves (including 23 for the Tigers last season), so if Hinch chooses to see past his elevated ERA, he has a strong case for the job.

I've included the two lefties, Brant Hurter and Tyler Holton, on the above table for the sake of completeness, but it's highly unlikely either of them wins the closer job outright. Hurter has a good ERA but middling ERA estimators, while Holton has a poor ERA but better ERA estimators. If the Tigers use a many-headed committee, both pitchers could see save chances when the opposing lineup is full of lefties in the ninth inning, but neither is likely to see more than the occasional opportunity.

Injury Round-Up

Ben Joyce, Angels: Joyce has been out since last May while recovering from shoulder surgery. He made four rehab appearances before pausing his rehab assignment after suffering a setback. He resumed throwing Tuesday, but it's not yet clear when he'll be ready to return to game action. He could eventually push for save chances once healthy, but with his lengthy injury track record, it's difficult to bet on his health. Kirby Yates has the Angels' only save in the last three weeks. 

Josh Hader, Astros: Hader has been out all season while recovering from biceps tendinitis, but his return appears to be imminent. He pitched on back-to-back days Wednesday and Thursday this week while on rehab, which seems to be the final hurdle he needed to clear before being activated. That activation may not come until early next week, but he should immediately resume closer duties once healthy.

Edwin Diaz, Dodgers: Reports from Monday indicated that Diaz would begin a throwing program Tuesday or Wednesday as he works his way back from surgery to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, though no follow-up from beat reporters has indicated whether or not that actually happened. In any case, Diaz's return is still quite a long way off, as he's expected to be out until after the All-Star break at a minimum. As discussed above, Tanner Scott seems to be the Dodgers' primary option for saves at the moment but is more of a committee leader than a true closer. 

Ryan Helsley, Orioles: Helsley has been out since the start of May due to elbow inflammation. He avoided structural damage and resumed throwing two weeks ago, but there's been no word of when he'll take the next step. Rico Garcia and Anthony Nunez have split the save chances in his absence. 

Emilio Pagan, Reds: Pagan has been out since early May with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. He underwent an MRI on Friday to check the progress of his recovery, the results of which have yet to be released. Initial estimates of his absence ranged from four to eight weeks. Tony Santillan, Pierce Johnson, Tejay Antone and Graham Ashcraft have all seen save chances in his absence, though Ashcraft is now out of the picture after landing on the 60-day injured list with a sprained UCL. 

Victor Vodnik, Rockies: Vodnik has been out since May 20 with ulnar nerve inflammation. Antonio Senzatela and Juan Mejia are the leading candidates for saves in his absence, though neither appears to be a true closer. 

Carlos Estevez, Royals: Estevez resumed throwing Wednesday after being diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain, an injury he picked up in his first rehab appearance while trying to make his way back from a bruised foot. His velocity was significantly down since the start of spring training, but if that can all be tied to the rotator cuff strain which has finally been identified, it's possible it will come back once that injury is properly treated. Lucas Erceg has been unconvincing as the Royals' deputy closer, so it's possible Estevez could take his job back once he's finally healthy. 

Closer Grid

This article will be published every Monday and Friday this season, taking a look back at the previous series' top closer news. For more closer updates, check out the RotoWire Closer Grid, which changes daily.   

 Here's how the whole thing looks as of Friday evening:

*part of a committee

Questions about any of the closers covered above or any relievers you're considering picking up off the waiver wire? Let me know in the comments below.