We finally made it, team! Raise the flags and call in reinforcements because the time is now. There are 64 teams who will embark on a grueling journey to fight, scratch, and claw their way to hoist that coveted trophy for the right to call themselves champions.
It all starts with one of the most electric weekends on the sports calendar; the regionals.
There's a lot of action on the board. A lot of plays to be had. And a handful of upsets looming.
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Texas State Bobcats (+200) vs. USC Trojans (-270) | Total: 11 (at DraftKings)
If you read my previews this week, you should have a feel which way I'm leaning. USC will no doubt be one of the most popular underdogs/non-hosts to win this weekend, but I don't agree. While the Trojans are saving superstar ace, Mason Edwards, for a potential 1-0 game on Saturday, they can't overlook what's on their plate in the opener.
Texas State is a fiery bunch out of the Sun Belt that notched 16 conference wins. The power of the Bobcats is that they can bang in the box, posting 114 homers as a unit, with seven different players in double-figure Jimmy Jacks. Four of them are hitting over .300 in Rashawn Galloway, Clayton Namken, Manny Salas, and Dawson Park. In addition to an offense that can score, the Bobcats rank 21st in the country in WRC+.
USC decided to gamble by pitching off, so in lieu of Edwards, it will be a strong starter in Grant Govel. Don't get me wrong. Govel is good. He's pitched to a 2.84 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 86 K:11 BB ratio in 88.2 innings. But, take a look under the hood and it's a bit different. Govel playing in the Big 10 skews stats a bit, so a lot of the numbers look good against the weaker competition. When he faced the competent teams in conference like UCLA (5 IP, 4 ER), Oregon (4.2 IP, 3 ER), and Nebraska (3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER), the results weren't as pretty. On top of that, he's given up 11 longballs, which is something that might hurt him here.
When you look at that Trojan offense, it doesn't blow you away. As a team, they hit .273 with 78 homers, and 57 stolen bags. That's not bad, but not exceptional either. Jack Basseer (.356 avg, 1.124 OPS, 10 HR) and Adrian Lopez (.300 avg, .908 OPS, 11 HR) have consistently been their best hitters with a couple sluggers in Augie Lopez (.269 avg, 17 HR) and Andrew Lamb (.266 avg, 10 HR) providing additional pop. This lineup will see a solid arm in Ryan Markwardt (.368 ERA, .229 OBA).
Markwardt has only thrown 29.1 innings this season, but he's been effective when he's pitched, especially as of late. Currently riding a 19.2-inning streak of no earned runs, he's coming into the tournament hot. It's big swing and miss stuff (43 punchies) as well.
I'm on the Bobcats to sneak out of this region, so, clearly, they have to start out the right way. I'm not a huge USC fan this season and to see them laying -270 is outrageous. It is facing a dangerous program in TX ST who can't be taken lightly. Aside from the ridiculous price, the Bobcats are great play on matchup and merit alone.
