The second Masters 1000 event of 2026 begins Wednesday, March 18 from the hard courts of Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are the players to beat as usual and clear favorites in a Miami Open draw that's depleted by the absence of world No. 3 Novak Djokovic. The top 32 seeds all have byes into the second round of the 96-player draw at Indian Wells, where all matches are best-of-three sets.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at Indian Wells, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. Djokovic will miss this event for undisclosed reasons after looking less than 100 percent physically at Indian Wells, which marked the 38-year-old superstar's first action since the Australian Open. Holger Rune (Achilles) remains sidelined by an injury that's expected to keep him out for most or all of 2026. Tallon Griekspoor (hamstring) will also miss this tournament, but Tomas Machac is set to return after sitting out Indian Wells due to an illness.
There's a big gap in odds between the top two favorites on the men's side and the rest of the field, with Daniil Medvedev occupying the third spot in the odds as the best of the rest after beating Alcaraz at Indian Wells. After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Other best sports betting sites for betting both tennis futures and individual matches include FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. Tennis Odds & Lines can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple sports betting apps. We offer exclusive sportsbook promos in states where sports betting has gone live.
Miami Open ATP Picks
The Favorite for the 2026 Miami Open
Jannik Sinner (+120) - Coming off a title run at Indian Wells during which he didn't drop a set, Sinner has slightly better odds than Carlos Alcaraz to win the Miami Open. Playing in high heat has occasionally given the second-ranked Italian problems, though it helps that he'll be playing best-of-three set matches here rather than best-of-five. Sinner didn't participate at the Miami Open last year due to being suspended but won the title in 2024. He's just 3-7 against Alcaraz on hard courts but 1-0 at the Miami Open. Sinner's early draw looks relatively straightforward, though Andrey Rublev or Cameron Norrie could provide some resistance in the Round of 16. Defending Miami Open champion Jakub Mensik has a win over Sinner this year and wouldn't lack belief if they meet in the quarterfinals, but the 12th-seeded Mensik would have to get past 19th-seeded American Frances Tiafoe and No. 7 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime to get to Sinner. Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev, both of whom Sinner just defeated in straight sets en route to the Indian Wells title, are his two likeliest semifinal opponents.
In the Mix for the 2026 Miami Open
Carlos Alcaraz (+150) - Alcaraz's season-opening winning streak was halted at 16 matches by Medvedev in the SFs at Indian Wells. That defeat could be a blessing in disguise for Alcaraz's title hopes here, as he's no longer shouldering the pressure of maintaining a perfect season, nor attempting the difficult feat of winning both legs of the Sunshine Double. Alcaraz has still displayed the best form of any player this year and has opened up a gap of 2,150 ranking points (more than a Grand Slam title) between himself and Sinner atop the ATP rankings, though the 6,030-point difference between Sinner and the third-ranked Djokovic is even more impressive. The top-seeded Spaniard's path to the final is simpler than Sinner's since Zverev and Medvedev both landed in Zverev's half and there's no Djokovic to balance the draw. Alcaraz could face an early test in the second round from Joao Fonseca, who came closer than anybody to beating Sinner at Indian Wells, falling 7-6 (6), 7-6 (4). If Alcaraz can keep the Brazilian teenager at bay, his chalk opponents from the third round onward would be Sebastian Korda, Karen Khachanov, Taylor Fritz/Jack Draper and Lorenzo Musetti/Alex de Minaur -- far from an easy path but all matches in which Alcaraz would be the clear favorite before another possible must-see final against Sinner.
Daniil Medvedev (+1500) - After Djokovic prevented an Alcaraz-Sinner final at the Australian Open by taking out Sinner in the semifinals, Medvedev showed he can still spoil the party on occasion as well by beating Alcaraz in the Indian Wells semifinals. Medvedev held his own in the final against Sinner, falling 7-6 (6), 7-6 (4). The ninth-seeded Russian has played in six hard-court Grand Slam finals, winning one. He has found his game in 2026 after dealing with shoulder issues during a down year in 2025, but Medvedev's ranking hasn't recovered from last year's struggles, which complicates his path to deep runs. From the Round of 16 onward, he could face Ben Shelton, Zverev, Sinner and Alcaraz consecutively.
Alexander Zverev (+2500), Ben Shelton (+3000) and Jack Draper (+3500) make up the tier below Medvedev. The third-seeded German reached the semifinals of the Australian Open and Indian Wells. Zverev had Alcaraz on the ropes in Australia but wasn't particularly close against Sinner at Indian Wells. The seven-time Masters 1000 champion can never be written off due to his excellent serve but has a six-match losing streak against Sinner, whom Zverev could face in the SFs here after a potential quarterfinal against Medvedev. Shelton's another player who has had problems solving Sinner, losing nine straight matchups since winning their first meeting. The eighth-seeded American could face Medvedev and Zverev first just to get to Sinner, so Shelton's a fade here despite his exciting offensive skills.
Draper's an intriguing option at +3500. The 25th-seeded Brit is arguably a top-five player when healthy and showed it with a gritty win over Djokovic at Indian Wells, but Draper didn't seem to be completely himself physically in his next match against Medvedev and is less than a month into his comeback from an arm injury. Draper will need to string together high-level performances to make a deep run here, as he could face Fritz and Casper Ruud in Rounds 3 and 4 just to get to Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.
Taylor Fritz (+4000), Felix Auger-Aliassime (+4000) and Alex de Minaur (+4000) round out the list of secondary contenders before the title odds plummet to +6000 or worse for remaining individuals in the Miami Open field. Fritz has the same tough draw issues as Draper, and the sixth-seeded American is just 13-9 in his career at the Miami Open, though Fritz reached the semifinals last year. Auger-Aliassime is once again failing to carry over strong late-season play into the key tournaments in the new year. The big-serving Canadian is seeded seventh but lost in the first round of the Australian Open and Round of 16 at Indian Wells. He hasn't been past the third round at the Miami Open since making the semifinals in 2019. FAA could face Mensik in the Round of 16 and Sinner in the quarterfinals. De Minaur is the favorite to make the semifinals out of his wide-open section, but the fifth-seeded Australian has a combined 0-19 record against Alcaraz and Sinner, as he lacks the firepower to trouble those two.
Sleepers for the 2026 Miami Open
Arthur Fils (+6500) - Fils has impressed since recovering from a multi-month layoff due to a back injury. The 21-year-old Frenchman is 7-2 in his last nine matches, with wins over Mensik and Auger-Aliassime and losses to Alcaraz and Zverev in that span. Fils landed in an appetizing section of the draw, as he certainly has enough game to upset de Minaur in the third round and make a potential semifinal push against the likes of Musetti, Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul. Grigor Dimitrov (+25000 to win the title, +6000 to reach the semifinals) is an intriguing longshot in this section. Fils is +550 to make the SFs, where he would likely face Alcaraz.
Joao Fonseca (+6500) - Fonseca's performance in his Round of 16 blockbuster against Sinner at Indian Wells signals that the 19-year-old Brazilian has arrived, as the big-hitting teenager went toe-to-toe with the world No. 2 and had three set points in the first-set tiebreak. Even with that loss, Fonseca is 7-2 in his last nine matches against top-30 opponents, including victories over Khachanov and Paul at Indian Wells. The talented teenager will get his first crack at Alcaraz if Fonseca beats Fabian Marozsan in the first round. Fonseca would have plenty of crowd support in Miami for what would arguably be the must-see match of the tournament against Alcaraz. If Fonseca can take the right lessons from the loss to Sinner and somehow upset Alcaraz, a run to the final would certainly be on the table in the less loaded top half of the draw.
Jakub Mensik (+8000) - Mensik defied the odds to win this title last year, taking out Djokovic in the final. The 20-year-old Czech is among the top contenders to emerge as the biggest next-gen threat to Sincaraz's reign, with a Sinner-like mix of balance, power and athleticism from the base line coupled with an elite serve. Mensik defeated Sinner in Doha as part of a 14-5 start to 2025, and the No. 12 seed has the game to hold his own if he gets a rematch against Sinner in the quarterfinals here.
Miami Open Prediction
Sinner and Alcaraz continue to be favored against the field, and even more so here without Djokovic. They played in the last three Grand Slam finals of 2025 and met in six finals overall last year. The Miami Open could treat us to the first Sincaraz final of 2026. Alcaraz has a 10-6 overall head-to-head edge over Sinner, has been the slightly better player this year and has the easier path to the final here, so the Spaniard is a great value pick at +150, but I'm picking Jannik Sinner (+120) to defeat Alcaraz in the final here, as it's Sinner's turn to swing back and reclaim some momentum in a rivalry that has started to tilt in Alcaraz's favor.
