Fourth-round action at the French Open continues Monday from the red clay courts of Roland Garros in Paris, France. One of the few remaining stars in either draw is on upset alert against a battle-tested opponent, while three Americans are set to take the court Monday and two have very winnable matches in front of them.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
French Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Naomi Osaka (+368) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka defeated Osaka in Madrid to take a 2-1 career head-to-head edge, but Osaka took the opening set in that match, which was the first clay-court meeting between this pair of four-time hard-court Grand Slam champions. The top-ranked Sabalenka has a sparkling 30-3 record in 2026 but a less intimidating 7-2 mark on clay, with both losses coming to opponents ranked outside the top 20. Clay isn't Osaka's best surface, either, but she has proven capable of stepping up in big matches on this surface, as Osaka had a match point against Iga Swiatek at the 2024 French Open before Swiatek ultimately came back and completed her Roland Garros threepeat. Osaka and Sabalenka are both big hitters capable of absorbing pace as well as they dish it out, but it will likely take a superb serving performance from Osaka to pull off the upset. The No. 16 seed just had one of those in the previous round, when Osaka racked up 12 aces in her tight three-set win over 17th-seeded American Iva Jovic.
Anna Kalinskaya (+163) vs. Anastasia Potapova
Potapova is coming off a huge third-round win over defending French Open champion Coco Gauff, but the No. 28 seed will have a different level of pressure now given the expectation that Potapova will be able to build off that win and reach the first Grand Slam quarterfinal of her career. She has had an excellent clay-court season, with an 18-4 record on the surface this season, but the 25-year-old Potapova doesn't have much experience in matches this big and hasn't cracked the top 20 in the rankings in her career. Kalinskaya has reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal before, as well as a WTA 1000 final, and the No. 23 seed her has been ranked as high as 11th. If Kalinskaya handles the mental side of this match better, she'll be in strong position to defeat the lower-ranked Potapova, despite the latter's strong recent form.
Honorable Mention
Diane Parry (+158) vs. Maja Chwalinska
French Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Matteo Berrettini (-170) vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo
It has been a while since Berrettini put together an extended healthy stretch, and this is his first French Open appearance since 2022, but he reached the quarterfinals the last time he played here, and the big-serving Italian has been at least that far at all four majors. Conversely, this is uncharted territory for Cerundolo, who is in the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the first time and hasn't even been this far at a Masters 1000 event before. The 56th-ranked Cerundolo came into this tournament with a 5-9 record on the ATP Tour this year, and while he deserves credit for capitalizing on the opportunity created by Jannik Sinner's cramping issues in their second-round match, Cerundolo has only one other win over a top-50 opponent all year. Berrettini's ranking has dropped to 105th, but the former world No. 6 is certainly still a top-50 caliber player when healthy, and the Italian has the clear edge in both experience and talent.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (-176) vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Auger-Aliassime's reputation as a Grand Slam underperformer comes from his frequent early exits, but the fourth-seeded Canadian actually fares pretty well once he sinks his teeth into a major, as he has won four of his last seven Grand Slam fourth-round matches. Those matches have typically come against far more impressive competition than Tabilo, who is ranked 36th and will be playing the first Grand Slam fourth-round match of his career. Tabilo hasn't faced a top-75 opponent in this tournament, and while the lefty's tricky game fits well on clay, he'll be hard-pressed to counter the significant edge in power that Auger-Aliassime possesses. FAA won their only previous meeting in straight sets on a hard court late last year.
Honorable Mention
Flavio Cobolli (-710) vs. Zachary Svajda
French Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Frances Tiafoe (-124) vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Arnaldi has had the better clay-court season, but Tiafoe is better equipped to handle the moment, as the 19th-seeded American is angling for his second straight French Open quarterfinal and the sixth major quarterfinal of his career. The 104th-ranked Arnaldi is back to playing tennis reminiscent of the level that got him to a career high of No. 30 in 2024. The 25-year-old Italian has gone 10-1 in his last 11 matches, winning a clay-court Challenger event before reaching the third round of the Italian Open, where he beat Alex de Minaur before falling in three sets to Rafael Jodar. Arnaldi hasn't had to face a top-25 opponent yet in this tournament, though, and he's 0-2 in Grand Slam fourth-round matches in his career, so the pressure will be substantially different than it was at the Challenger level. Tiafoe has been the better player throughout the year, with a strong 23-10 overall record this year.
Honorable Mention
Madison Keys (-153) vs. Diana Shnaider
