Suburban Propane 300
Location: Bristol, Tennessee
Course: Bristol Motor Speedway
Format: Oval
Laps: 300
NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Race Preview
William Sawalich claimed his first career win in the O'Reilly Series last weekend at Rockingham, becoming the youngest driver to win at Rockingham among any of the Cup, O'Reilly or Truck series. He showed particularly strong pace late in the race, leading the final 79 laps following a restart. Brandon Jones capped a strong day for Joe Gibbs Racing, as he followed Sawalich to the line for a second-place finish. Corey Day was another notable performer. He won the first two stages of the race before ultimately slipping down the field due to a slow pit stop and subsequent loose lug nut before still recovering to finish 10th.
Key Stats at Bristol
- Number of Races: 83
- Winners from Pole: 12
- Winners from top-five starters: 44
- Winners from top-10 starters: 61
Previous 10 Bristol Winners
Fall 2025 – Aric Almirola
Spring 2025- Kyle Larson
2024 - Cole Custer
2023- Justin Allgaier
2022- Noah Gragson
2021- AJ Allmendinger
Fall 2020- Chase Briscoe
Spring 2020- Noah Gragson
Fall 2019- Tyler Reddick
Spring 2019 – Christopher Bell
Bristol marks the second traditional short-track race of the season and is the first of two races this season. There is still a unique element to this year's race as it marks the first Dash 4 Cash event. Rockingham served as the qualifying race, meaning Sawalich, Jones, Allgaier and Rajah Caruth will take part. The best finisher of that group will take home $100,000.
It will be worth paying relatively close attention to qualifying. Each of the last three race winners qualified inside the top two, and eight consecutive drivers have started inside the top eight.
NASCAR O'Reilly Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Suburban Propane 300
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Kyle Larson - $15,500
Justin Allgaier - $12,500
Carson Kvapil - $9,700
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Corey Day -$9,500
Sam Mayer - $9,000
Sheldon Creed - $8,800
Jesse Love - $8,200
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Brandon Jones - $8,000
Ryan Sieg - $7,300
Parker Retzlaff - $7,200
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Anthony Alfredo - $6,600
Dean Thompson - $6,400
Jeremy Clements - $6,300
Optimal DraftKings Lineup for the Suburban Propane 300
Carson Kvapil - $9,700
Sam Mayer - $9,000
Sheldon Creed - $8,800
Brandon Jones - $8,000
Ryan Sieg - $7,300
Parker Retzlaff - $7,200
Two Cup Series drivers will be in the field, and they account for two of the most expensive drivers in the pool. Larson is extremely difficult to roster due to his cost, while Zilisch checks in as the third-most expensive driver. Determining whether to roster one of them or Justin Allgaier ($12,500) will be one of the key decision points of the weekend. There's a strong case for all three. The track records of Larson and Zilisch speak for themselves, and Allgaier has a strong track record. However, there is a strong group of second-tier drivers who have similar success at Bristol. That makes me inclined to skip out on Tier 1 this week, though there are strong value options for those who want to roster the highest-priced drivers.
Ryan Sieg is a driver to lock into lineups this week. He has an average starting position of 8.3 in his last three races with an average finish of 12.7, including two top 10s. Bristol has also been particularly kind to all three of the Tier 4 drivers relative to cost. Alfredo finished 22nd last fall but had 15th and 11th place finishes in his two prior races. Thompson has been even better, logging 12th and 10th place finishes in his two Bristol events, while also qualifying inside the top 20 on each occasion. He'd be my preferred Tier 4 option. Finally, Clements has logged ninth and 12th-place finishes among his last three races, while finishing 20th in the other.
Those three drivers make it realistic to roster Zilisch or Allgaier, but both Tiers 2 and 3 feature a lot of drivers capable of strong performances and even taking home a win. Kvapil has been a breakout driver this season – he recorded his third top-five finish of the season at Rockingham last weekend, and he owns a 110.0 driver rating with an average finish of 3.0 in his two races at Bristol. Mayer, Brandon Jones and Love have very similar records, with Creed only a half-step behind. That creates a very strong middle tier to build through, which was the way I opted to build the optimal lineup for the week.
Best Bets for the Suburban Propane 300
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Saturday
Race Winner – Justin Allgaier (+500), Carson Kvapil (+1200), Sam Mayer (+1800), Brandon Jones (+1800)
Top-Five Finish – Sheldon Creed (+230), Ryan Sieg (+550)
Head-to-Head Matchups
Brent Crews (-120) vs. Corey Day (-110)
Taylor Gray (-115) vs. Sheldon Creed (-115)
Larson is the heavy favorite to win this week, checking in at -115 as the race winner. While he should be the favorite, it's difficult to get behind odds that short. That's particularly true given the context of the strength of the midfield. Kvapil has led only 29 total laps this season, but he is consistently in the mix and that should pay off at some point in the relatively near future. Mayer is another interesting driver this weekend. He has led 135 laps combined across the last three races, including 68 in last year's fall race. Mayer has also consistently qualified inside the top 10, which is key to the potential to win.
There are also some interesting driver matchups. Day continues to deliver strong results, even through adversity, as was the case in Rockingham. Crews has considerable potential, but he hasn't converted on it consistently yet. Creed is undervalued this weekend in his potential to run well. He's finished second in each of the last two races he completed at Bristol, with the third concluding in an accident.
Mapping out your wagers for the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series race? Check out the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes to get special offers and make the most of your bets.
