Mission 200 at The Glen
Location: Watkins Glen, New York
Course: Watkins Glen International
Format: Road Course
Laps: 82
NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Race Preview
After a string of primarily short and intermediate-track races, NASCAR will head to Watkins Glen for the second road course of the season. Kyle Larson took the checkered flag at Texas, taking home his second win in four chances in the O'Reilly Series. Larson was hounded by Justin Allgaier for much of the second half of the race, allowing him to extend his Series lead to 121 points. There are other surging drivers. Brent Crews has finished inside the top five in each of his last four races. Sam Mayer has similarly gained ground in the standings, pushing his way up to 12th after securing 44 points at Texas.
Key Stats at Watkins Glen
- Number of Races: 31
- Winners from Pole: 11
- Winners from top-five starters 24
- Winners from top-10 starters: 26
Previous 10 Watkins Glen Winners
2025- Connor Zilisch
2024- Connor Zilisch
2023- Sam Mayer
2022- Kyle Larson
2021- Ty Gibbs
2019 – Austin Cindric
2018 – Joey Logano
2017- Kyle Busch
2016- Joey Logano
2015- Joey Logano
Road courses have become more prominent on the NASCAR schedule which has diminished the uniqueness of Watkins Glen. However, it is one of the most long-standing road courses in the sport, giving us a fair bit of sample to work with as we construct DFS lineups and place any bets.
Road courses also mean discounting recent form in favor of track history, providing the opportunity to roster drivers typically not in the mix. It's also worth putting a significant amount of weight into qualifying results, as nearly all of the winners have started from inside the top 10.
There are also a number of Cup Series drivers in the field, the most prominent of which are Shane van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch. Ross Chastain has also had plenty of success at Watkins Glen.
NASCAR O'Reilly Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Mission 200 at The Glen
(Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Shane van Gisbergen - $15,500
Connor Zilisch - $15,000
Brent Crews- $10,500
Ross Chastain- $9,500
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sam Mayer - $8,500
Sheldon Creed- $8,100
William Sawalich - $8,000
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Taylor Gray - $7,800
Corey Day - $7,700
Carson Kvapil - $7,500
Jesse Love- $7,300
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Austin Green - $6,900
Harrison Burton - $6,800
Jeb Burton - $6,400
Jeremy Clements - $5,600
Optimal DraftKings Lineup for the Mission 200 at the Glen
Connor Zilisch - $15,000
Corey Day - $7,700
Carson Kvapil - $7,500
Jesse Love - $7,300
Austin Green - $6,900
Jeremy Clements - $5,600
Both van Gisbergen and Zilisch are rightfully priced outliers at the top of the driver pool. Perhaps contrary to perception, Zilisch has been the more dominant of the duo at Watkins Glen. He's led 105 out of a possible 164 laps in the last two races, while van Gisbergen has led only 25 in the same span. As the sample lineup shows, rostering Zilisch will require significant sacrifices everywhere else in the lineup.
The alternatives toward the top of the pool are also quite strong. Sam Mayer is arguably the best value on the slate. He won the race in 2023 and finished second last season, while also qualifying inside the top five in each of the last three races. Rostering him along with Zilisch would be nearly impossible. Fading both van Gisbergen and Zilisch would make rostering Mayer and one of Ross Chastain or Brent Crews easy to accomplish. Crews obviously has a limited track record at Watkins Glen, but he took the pole in the Truck Series and followed that up with a solid seventh-place finish. Given his recent form, Crews looks to be a solid driver to roster this weekend.
Though there are some unique drivers that excel at Watkins Glen, there are also some of the usual suspects. Sheldon Creed and Jesse Love both fit that description, with Love in particular drawing a puzzling price tag. Love may not be likely to contend for a win, but he's finished eighth and 14th in his two races at the track and has three consecutive top-10 finishes heading into this race.
There are also a lot of strong values, which make it possible to build through one of the highest-priced drivers. Austin Green is a full-time driver in the O'Reilly Series, but he's something of a road course specialist. Clements is a punt play that always carries plenty of risk, but he's consistently finished inside the top 15 dating all the way back to 2018.
Overall, there are a lot of unique ways to build a lineup, so don't be afraid to expand the driver pool a bit more than on a typical weekend.
NASCAR O'Reilly Series Best Bets for the Mission 200 at the Glen
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:30 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner
Connor Zilisch (+125), Brent Crews (+600), Sam Mayer (+2200)
Head-to-Head Matchups
Ross Chastain (-115) vs. Justin Allgaier (-115)
Sheldon Creed (-130) vs. Sammy Smith (-105)
Austin Hill (-120) vs. Sam Mayer (-115)
Carson Kvapil (-120) vs. Corey Day (-115)
Just as was the case in the DFS section, Zilisch and van Gisbergen are the runaway favorites. Van Gisbergen is given the slightly better chances of winning, which creates a slight bit of value for Zilisch.
Some of the more interesting wagers come from the head-to-head matchups. Allgaier can never be counted out, but Watkins Glen typically hasn't been among his more successful weekends. He finished sixth in last year's race, but that ended a three-year stretch of finishing 16th or worse at the course. In contrast, Chastain has had considerable success in the Cup Series.
Creed may be another key source of value along with Sam Mayer this weekend. Creed had three straight top-10 finishes in his first three races at Watkins Glen (including a pair of runner-up finishes), before being unable to finish last season. He should have the upper hand over Smith and is also interesting as a top-five finisher (+285).
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