This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
As expected, the NASCAR season has settled into a predictable rhythm and performance as we've moved away from superspeedway style racing into short and intermediate tracks. We'll get our first taste of the latter this weekend as the drivers will travel to Bristol Motor Speedway for the Food City 500. As usual, our primary tools will be loop data times from practice as well as past history at the track. We can start to take a peak at form this season as well, because the short track package was used in Phoenix last week. With that, let's get into some picks.
PrizePicks Selections for the Food City 500
Bubba Wallace – starting position over 12.5; under 27.5 NASCAR points (14th or worse w/no stage wins)
There are a lot of things that don't bode well for Wallace this weekend. He began the season well but has since finished 35th and 16th in Las Vegas and Phoenix, respectively. The result in Las Vegas was due to a poor pit stop, but his pace was off the mark in Phoenix. He ran only 7.7 percent of laps in the top 15 with a driver rating of 64.5 – good for 20th in the field. With the short track package in play once again this week, we shouldn't project much success for Wallace barring an impressive practice Saturday evening.
That doesn't even get into Wallace's history at Bristol, where's he finished better than 14th just once in 10 tries. Similarly, he's qualified inside the top 12 just twice in that same span.
Chase Elliott- starting position under 10.5; over 31.5 NASCAR points (top-nine finish w/no stage wins)
Saying that Hendrick cars have had a lot of success at a track isn't particularly enlightening analysis, but Kyle Larson and William Byron have the two best average finishes of the entire field in the last three races (non-dirt) at Bristol. However, the choice to pick Elliott comes down to the respective projections. Larson has a projection of 36.5, meaning he'd need to finish inside the top four without a stage win to go over. Similarly, Byron has a projection of 35.5, meaning he needs to finish inside the top-five without a stage win to hit his over.
In contrast, Elliott has a more palatable projection, one that he's hit the over on in two of the last three races races at Bristol. He had only a mediocre run at Phoenix last week, but he qualified third and ran inside the top seven for the first half of the race. He hasn't put it all together across a weekend this season, but there are several factors to suggest that changes in the near future.
Martin Truex Jr. – under 29.5 NASCAR points (12th place or worse w/no stage wins)
This is one of my lower confidence picks of the week. Truex has had historical success at short tracks, though most of it has come at Richmond and Martinsville. In fact, since 2013 he's finished 11th or better at Bristol only three times. Even with a car that was good enough to win the regular season championship last season, Truex ran only 25.6 percent of laps inside the top 15 while posting just a 72.2 driver rating at this track in the fall.
Ross Chastain – under 30.5 NASCAR points (11th place or worse w/no stage wins)
Chastain has proven himself to be one of the fastest and most relentless drivers in the field, but his success hasn't come at short tracks. He essentially needs to finish inside the top 10 to hit the over, something he's accomplished just one-third of the time in 15 races at short tracks since 2021.
His race data from Phoenix last week can be interpreted in two different ways. Despite finishing sixth, he had a modest race rating of 81.8 (13th in the field) while running only 41.7 percent of the race inside the top 15, which would have more appropriately translated to a finish more in the 15 to 25 range. That obviously suggests he overachieved, but it also illustrates his ability to out-perform expectations and outdrive the pace of his car. Ultimately, I'll rely on Chastain's history and side against him here.
Denny Hamlin or Christopher Bell- over 36.5 NASCAR points (fourth place or better or no stage wins)
I like both Hamlin and Bell quite a bit this week, but that's not exactly going out on a limb. They're both expected to perform quite well, as their projections suggest. Due to the high bar they each have to clear, it wouldn't be wise to pick both to go over their projection this week.
Nevertheless, there's a strong case to be made for each. On the surface, Hamlin hasn't had a particularly impressive start to the season with only one top-10 finish. However, he's led laps in every race and has had varying degrees of bad luck to fall down the field. Hamlin has had a significant history of success at Bristol, including three career wins at the track – the last of which came last fall.
I doubted Bell last week due to his track history at Phoenix and that proved to be a mistake. There's no doubting his success at Bristol, as he led 187 laps (37.4 percent) in the fall and ran 100 percent of laps inside the top 15. Between the success we saw Bell have repeatedly charging back through the field last week and his recent track record at Bristol specifically, he's in a good spot to have another good showing.
