This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 99 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 99 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Robelis Despaigne (5-1-0) v. Austen Lane (12-5-0)
Robelis Despaigne - Height: 6'7" - Reach: 84" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
Austen Lane - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be extremely popular in DFS contests, as one of these guys will knock out the other. Lane has yet to win in the UFC and has been knocked out twice. Despaigne won his debut in less than 60 seconds but was dominated on the mat in his next fight. I do not expect either fighter to shoot for a takedown, and I see Despaigne scoring another quick knockout in the first.
UFC Vegas 99 Pick: Despaigne
Alice Ardelean (9-6-0) v. Melissa Martinez (7-1-0)
Alice Ardelean - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Melissa Martinez - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Both ladies lost their UFC debuts. The fight odds are close for a reason, and given that Martinez offers very little on the mat, this fight will be a dog-or-pass for me. Though wild and not great, Ardelean offers a better chance to score well for DFS due to her takedowns and control. I expect Ardelean to shoot early and look to keep this on the mat.
UFC Vegas 99 Pick: Ardelean
Jessica Penne (14-7-0) v. Elise Reed (7-4-0)
Jessica Penne - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
Elise Reed - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Penne has not fought since March of 2023 but will be back in the Octagon against Reed, who is nearly 10 years younger. Penne will have a considerable edge on the mat, while Reed will have the edge on the feet. Reed has shown very little takedown defense, so I will side with the veteran slightly.
UFC Vegas 99 Pick: Penne
Joselyne Edwards (13-6-0) v. Tamires Vidal (17-2-0)
Joselyne Edwards - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
Tamires Vidal - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be nearly 15 minutes of striking, as there will be no finish and few takedown attempts. Vidal has been less than impressive since joining the UFC, with her only win coming against an arguably worse fighter than herself. Edwards should be far and away the better striker. I would not expect a high score for DFS coming out of this fight.
UFC Vegas 99 Pick: Edwards
Brad Katona (14-3-0) v. Jean Matsumoto (15-0-0)
Brad Katona - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 14 wins
Jean Matsumoto - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: A striking match between these two will make this matchup much closer than it needs to be. Matsumoto will have a slight edge on the feet but will have a considerable edge on the mat if he gets it there. I expect both fighters to have their moments throughout this fight, but for Matsumoto to win what should be an exciting fight. This could be a sneaky fight for DFS.
UFC Vegas 99 Pick: Matsumoto
Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) v. Asu Almabayev (20-2-0)
Matheus Nicolau - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
Asu Almabayev - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Nicolau, viewed as a title contender not long ago, has lost two in a row by knockout. Although he is likely still a top-10 fighter, he draws the highly-touted Almabayev, who is riding a 16-fight winning streak. I expect Almabayev to have his way in this fight, as he should have the edge everywhere, particularly on the mat. He should score well in any type of win for DFS and will be a popular play.
UFC Vegas 99 Pick: Almabayev
Darren Elkins (28-11-0) v. Daniel Pineda (28-16-0)
Darren Elkins - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 28 wins
Daniel Pineda - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 28 wins
DFS Perspective: Elkins and Pineda always put out highly entertaining fights. They are 40 and 39, respectively, and hardly ever have a boring showing. Elkins is definitely more durable than Pineda, but he is also not a finisher at this point in his career, while Pineda still is. The odds are spot on for this fight, as it could go either way. Pineda is the better play for DFS, as he is more likely to finish the fight.
UFC Vegas 99 Pick: Pineda
Sumudaerji (16-6-0) v. Charles Johnson (16-6-0)
Su Mudaerji - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
Charles Johnson - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be 15 minutes of striking. Neither guy relies on a ground game, and although Su is an excellent finisher, Johnson is extremely tough to finish. Johnson is rightfully favored, as he has faced better competition and is far better defensively. Johnson should win, but I would not expect a high score for DFS.
UFC Vegas 99 Pick: Johnson
Rob Font (20-8-0) v. Kyler Phillips (12-2-0)
Rob Font - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
Kyler Phillips - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: We saw Font get dominated on the mat in consecutive fights, and Phillips could easily make that three in a row. Font will have the edge on the feet, but without improved takedown defense, he will not be able to use it. I expect Phillips to shoot early and often, keeping Font controlled on the mat and scoring a dominant win. He should also score well in DFS and will likely be a popular play.
UFC Vegas 99 Pick: Phillips
Michel Pereira (31-11-0) v. Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0)
Michel Pereira - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 31 wins
Anthony Hernandez - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be the most exciting fight of the night. Pereira is riding an eight-fight winning streak, while Hernandez is riding a five-fight winning streak. Hernandez tends to rely more on his ground game; if he cannot get this to the mat, he will likely lose. Pereira has a solid ground game, but his striking will likely be what wins him this fight. Given that Pereira's takedown defense is an elite 94 percent, I expect him to win at least three rounds on the feet. A finish will only add to the total this fight should provide.
UFC Vegas 99 Pick: Pereira
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
