This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Michael Johnson ($7,100)
Johnson has been trending in the wrong direction for the last three-plus years, but he rebounded with a knockout win over Alan Patrick this past May and is facing an opponent here in Jamie Mullarkey with similar struggles of late. MJ is getting hit more than ever, but he still possesses very quick hands and is supremely confident in the stand-up. I can't pick him to win outright, yet he clearly seems underpriced in a fight he has a chance to win as long as he doesn't get knocked out.
Jared Vanderaa ($8,600)
Vanderaa's price tag is ridiculously high and I would almost never advocate backing a guy who has lost three in a row and seems certain to be released with a defeat here, but Vanderaa's opponent, Chase Sherman, may be the weakest fighter on the entire UFC roster. This is a bet against Sherman as opposed to a bet on Vanderaa.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Rafael Fiziev OVER 110.5 significant strikes, Karl Roberson UNDER 1.5 takedowns, and Antonina Shevchenko UNDER 60.5 significant strikes.
Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos will compete in a five-round main event here. I'm expecting a fairly close competitive fight, albeit one in which Fiziev should have an overwhelming speed advantage on the feet. Fiziev is going to have to ward off the takedown attempts from the veteran Brazilian, but Fiziev should hit this easily as long as this bout sees the championship rounds. RDA's striking defense isn't what it once was.
I don't understand this Roberson prop at all. For starters, he averages 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his opponent, Kennedy Nzechukwu, defends the takedown at a solid 80-percent clip. Roberson has tallied two takedowns just once in nine UFC bouts, and that came in November 2018. This is by far my favorite PP prop on the slate.
This Shevchenko prop is another where the numbers simply do not add up. In seven UFC bouts (3-4), Antonina has tallied more than 60.5 significant strikes on just two occasions. The two times she got there she barely made it, with 64 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi and 66 against Ji Yeon Kim. Those fights came in late-2018 and early-2019. Toss in the fact she is facing an opponent here in Cortney Casey who is very strong and can match Shevchenko in the size department, and I see a slow-paced, grinding affair.
Bets to Consider
Jared Vanderaa wins via KO/TKO/DQ (+150)
I touched on Vanderaa and Sherman earlier. Sherman actually hasn't been knocked out at all in his current four-fight losing streak, but four of his previous six defeats had come via KO, and I seriously doubt his durability has improved as he has aged. Vanderaa has legitimate power and Sherman is so reckless that I like the former's chances of connecting here. Sherman has been prone to submissions of late, and Vanderaa has three submissions wins in his career, but I still think a potential knockout at plus money is the better bet.
Rafael Fiziev (-220) and Said Nurmagomedov (-340) to win outright parlay (-114)
This once has me a little nervous simply because I expect dos Anjos and Douglas Silva de Andrade, Nurmagomedov's opponent, to put up a fight. Ultimately, however, I think Fiziev and Said are probably two of the safest bets on the entire card, even I don't love the price on both men from an individual standpoint. A (-114) ticket seems like a very reasonably price considering the talent levels of the two men.
Nina Nunes to win outright (+125)
Regular readers of my work on RotoWire know by now that I try to fade Cynthia Calvillo whenever possible, and this seems like a prime opportunity to do so. Calvillo probably has a very minor edge in terms of physical gifts, but I trust Nunes much more to implement a game plan that will actually work inside the Octagon. I think Nunes can use Calvillo's aggressiveness against her and ultimately win a decision. This line has already swung in Nunes' favor a bit and I could see that continuing up until fight night.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 58 best bets for this weekend.
Plays to Consider on Money Knife Fight
Chase Sherman OVER 45.5 total strikes and Michael Johnson OVER 43.5 total strikes
Sherman was quickly submitted by Alexandr Romanov and Jake Collier in his past two bouts, but in his five fights prior, Sherman's total strike counts were as follows: 121, 99, 51, 84, and 112. Yes, Sherman's durability issues and recklessness inside the Octagon are major, major concerns, but getting to 46 total strikes isn't a particularly difficult task, even if he's getting blown out.
Johnson's number is even more reasonable, especially when you take into account he's a pure stand-up specialist. Mullarkey averages 3.38 takedowns per 15 minutes, but MJ has always been an underrated athlete and has displayed solid (78 percent) takedown defense over the course of his career. He's obviously not going to pay off here if he spend a good portion of the fight planted to the mat, but I'll take my chances that Johnson can remain upright and connect with at least 44 totals strikes. If this fight goes the distance, MJ has to land roughly 15 total strikes a round, a number he should breeze past.
