UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Winnipeg -Burns vs. Malott
The UFC makes a trek to Winnipeg for a 12-fight card full of interesting bouts. We'll take a look at each fight across three platforms, including an offense-first underdog, and a juiced-up prop in the main event. Our betting lines come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article
Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Melissa Croden ($8,800)
Daria Zhelezniakova pulled off an upset against a wrestler in her UFC debut, but Melissa Mullins doesn't have the physicality or persistence of Croden, who will repeatedly force the clinch to work her takedowns and Muay Thai. Zhelezniakova can look good in space, but I doubt she will get much room to breathe here.
Jasmine Jasudavicius ($9,200)
Karine Silva can do a bit of everything in the cage, but her willingness to grapple will only get her in trouble against Jasudavicius, who is incredibly strong in the clinch, as well as an opportunistic submission hunter. A two-inch height advantage should also allow the Canadian fighter to score with her jab in boxing range.
Robert Valentin ($8,300)
Valentin's skill set doesn't extend far beyond an ability to grapple, but this should be enough to beat newcomer Julien Leblanc, who stands straight up in the pocket and will willfully engage in the clinch. The Swedish fighter also carries power in his hands, which should discourage the Canadian fighter from standing in boxing range.
John Castaneda ($8,000)
Mark Vologdin seems like a tailor-made opponent for Castenada, a sharp boxer who likes to cut angles and find his takedown entries. Vologdin is most well-known for showing heart while taking a beating on the Contender Series, and while his body work and speed make him interesting, he will be at a six-inch disadvantage in reach here, and I expect him to get stung as he tries to close that distance.
Kyler Phillips ($7,400)
There aren't many true underdogs worth taking a shot at, but I like Phillips to hit the gas when the bell rings. Charles Jourdain is a sharp counter striker with a sneaky ground game, but Phillips hasn't been finished in 16 professional fights and should be able to swarm "Air" and neutralize his kicking game.
Mandel Nallo ($8,600)
Nallo should find a comfortable dance partner for his organizational debut, as he is known for damaging fighters with leg kicks, and Jai Herbert is a lanky boxer who stands heavy on his lead leg. The former Bellator fighter is a slick grappler as well, giving him multiple avenues to attack the struggling UFC veteran.
Jamie Siraj ($9,100)
Unfortunately for John Yannis, he draws his second straight clingy submission artist in Siraj, after being submitted by Austin Bashi in his UFC debut. While I wouldn't rate Siraj the same level of scrambler, he is as relentless as Bashi and is more willing to strike to set up his entries. Yannis should find himself unable to get offense going once again as Siraj pushes him behind the octagon's black line.
Jamey-Lyn Horth ($8,900)
Horth tends to struggle against agile fighters or opponents who can match her physicality. JJ Aldrich fits into neither category, as she stands with her feet planted in the pocket and has been pushed around by strong fighters in the past. Aldrich would need to cleanly win exchanges for 15 minutes to get her hand raised, which doesn't seem likely due to Horth's power advantage.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Pick6
Gauge Young OVER 52.5 Significant Strikes. and Gokhan Saricam OVER 41.5 Significant Strikes
We've often seen two grapplers have a kickboxing match, and Young should use his speed and combination punching to pick Thiago Moises apart across three rounds. Moises will likely try to bring this fight to the floor in response, but "Gee Money" hasn't been taken down in a fight since defending 13 of 22 attempts against Quillan Salkilld, who is a much more active and powerful wrestler than Moises.
Saricam is a kickboxer with power in his hands, but Tanner Boser has been durable in his career, having been knocked out just twice in 32 professional fights. I expect Boser to use his speed to stay out of the danger zone, which should result in the two men trading strikes from the outside.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like DraftKings Pick6? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Marcio Barbosa Wins via KO/TKO (+100)
I consider anything in the plus territory a good price against Dennis Buzukja, who does not take his head off the center line and is far too willing to accept a firefight. The Brazilian fighter is athletic, powerful, and will march "The Great" down, which should bring this one to a close in short order.
Mike Malott Wins via Decision (+575)
The Malott knockout prop (-110) seems to suggest that the Canadian is a knockout artist and/or Gilbert Burns's chin is gone. I don't see much evidence for either of these things, as Malott frequently turns into a counterpuncher against aggressive opponents, and Burns's recent knockout losses came against two of the most prolific finishers in the division. While I don't like the lack of output that has accompanied the Brazilian's recent performances, I think this is more likely to produce a boring fight than a finish. "Proper" will have his opportunities, but this line is too juicy to let pass.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Winnipeg. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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