The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, April 25 for UFC Vegas 116. In the main event, featherweight contenders throw down, as Aljamain Sterling takes on Youssef Zalal with a top-5 spot at 145 pounds on the line.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 116 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez (18-8) vs. Rafa Garcia (18-4)
A fun lightweight bout takes place on the main card, and I like Alexander Hernandez to get his hand raised against Rafa Garcia.
Hernandez is on a four-fight winning streak and has been looking good as of late. Garcia, meanwhile, has won back-to-back fights, but I like the momentum Hernandez is on.
Hernandez is a great striker with legitimate KO power, and he should also have the grappling advantage in this fight. I like Hernandez to land the more damaging shots and also wrestle when needed to control the minutes and likely secure a ground-and-pound TKO win.
UFC Vegas 116 Bet: Alexander Hernandez (-130)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Max Griffin (20-12) vs. Victor Valenzuela (13-4)
For my underdog pick at UFC Vegas 116, I'm taking Max Griffin to get back into the win column against a UFC newcomer in Victor Valenzuela.
Griffin has lost back-to-back fights, but the level of competition he has been fighting is top-notch. The veteran is also as durable as they come, as he's only been finished once in his UFC tenure.
Griffin takes on Valenzuela, who's making his UFC debut and lost on the Contender Series. Valenzuela has some talent and skills, but we often see UFC jitters. I think Griffin will be able to win the second and third rounds to edge out a very close decision, which could even be a split.
UFC Vegas 116 Bet: Max Griffin (+124)
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Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Marcus Almeida (5-2-1) vs. Ryan Spann (23-11)
For my prop at UFC Vegas 116, I'm taking Marcus Almeida and Ryan Spann to go under 1.5 rounds.
Almeida (aka "Buchecha") has been a bit of a disappointment in the UFC, as he's 0-1-1, but gets a favorable matchup here against Spann. Buchecha is a stellar grappler, and Spann has struggled against grapplers as of late.
However, on the feet, Spann has legit KO power, and Buchecha's striking defense is a major concern. This is a toss-up fight for me, but the best way to bet it is under 1.5 rounds. I expect Buchecha to win by first-round submission or get TKO'd in the opening round.
UFC Vegas 116 Bet: Marcus Buchecha-Ryan Spann under 1.5 rounds (-175)
Weight Class: Middleweight & Lightweight
Rodolfo Vieira (11-4) vs. Eric McConico (10-4-1)
Francis Marshall (9-3) vs. Lucas Brennan (11-2)
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 116, I'm taking Rodolfo Vieira and Francis Marshall to get their hands raised.
Vieira is taking on McConico, who I'm not too high on, and should struggle against Vieira. Vieira should be able to get McConico on the ground and get an early submission win, as the American doesn't have the best takedown defense, which is an issue against Vieira, who's a dominant grappler.
The other leg of the parlay is Marshall to beat Brennan in a fight that was made on short notice. Brennan, to me, isn't UFC-caliber. Marshall is someone I'm high on, and although this fight is on short notice, I expect him to be able to control the pace and likely finish Brennan. Marshall should be able to keep this fight standing and land the more damaging shots to get the win.
UFC Vegas 116 Bet: Rodolfo Vieira & Francis Marshall parlay (-167)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 116 card.
- Alexander Hernandez (-130)
- Max Griffin (+124)
- Marcus Almeida-Ryan Spann under 1.5 rounds (-175)
- Rodolfo Vieira & Francis Marshall parlay (-167)
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