This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 308 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 308 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
Bruno Silva (23-11-0) v. Ismail Naurdiev (23-7-0)
Bruno Silva - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 23 wins
Ismail Naurdiev - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Silva is coming off three straight losses and is becoming more and more difficult to trust. Naurdiev has not fared much better, losing last time out to move to 2-2 in the UFC. Silva is the better striker, while Naurdiev is the better grappler. Naurdiev would score well in a decision if he can find success with takedowns and control time. I expect both fighters to have their moments in a close fight, but for the ground game to make a difference.
UFC 308 Pick: Naurdiev
Ibo Aslan (13-1-0) v. Raffael Cerqueira (11-0-0)
Ibo Aslan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
Raffael Cerqueira - Height: 6'4" - Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should produce fireworks and will be heavily owned for DFS. Both fighters are heavy handed and one of them will likely be knocked out within the first two rounds. Cerqueira is making his debut, and his past competition concerns me. I expect Aslan to get this done but getting ownership of both in multi-entry contests is a must.
UFC 308 Pick: Aslan
Rinat Fakhretdinov (23-2-1) v. Carlos Leal (21-5-0)
Rinat Fakhretdinov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 22 wins
Carlos Leal - Height: 5'11" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Leal is making his UFC debut after varied success in other promotions. He draws an extremely difficult matchup with Fakhretdinov, who will likely rag-doll him for most of the fight. Fakhretdinov is going to be a popular play for DFS and for good reason. He averages over four takedowns per fifteen minutes and should have no issue taking Leal down several times.
UFC 308 Pick: Fakhretdinov
Farid Basharat (12-0-0) v. Victor Hugo (25-4-0)
Farid Basharat - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Victor Hugo - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters have yet to lose in the UFC, but one has fought much better competition than the other. Basharat has the necessary tools to make this fight his 13th win in a row. Hugo has solid grappling, but it is not on the level of Basharat. I expect Basharat to have his way with Hugo. However, if he is unable to chain takedowns or throw several strikes on the mat, he may not score well enough to hit the optimal lineup. Still, he makes a solid play for cash contests.
UFC 308 Pick: Basharat
Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-5-0) v. Chris Barnett (23-8-0)
Kennedy Nzechukwu - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 83" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Chris Barnett - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Barnett will likely need a knockout to win this fight. He will be facing an eight inch height and reach advantage, and will struggle to fight inside the pocket. Nzechukwu is frustrating for DFS, as he can record an early knockout if he goes all out, or he can score very little just sitting at range. He should be considered a pure GPP play given you never know which version will show up.
UFC 308 Pick: Nzechukwu
Abus Magomedov (26-6-1) v. Brunno Ferreira (12-1-0)
Abus Magomedov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 26 wins
Brunno Ferreira - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Magomedov earned his second UFC win last time out with a dominant display on the mat, but he has not looked the greatest overall. Ferreira has shown how deadly he is with four knockouts in five fights, all in the first round. His only loss also happened to be a knockout in the first round, so I would not expect this to make it out of it. I do not see Magomedov having any advantage in this fight and expect Ferreira to end this one early, making him an excellent play for DFS.
UFC 308 Pick: Ferreira
Myktybek Orolbai (13-1-1) v. Mateusz Rebecki (19-2-0)
Myktybek Orolbai - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
Mateusz Rebecki - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: After four dominant UFC wins, Rebecki looked human last time out. He struggled with his striking and eventually got knocked out late in the third round. On the other side, Orolbai has looked nearly unstoppable in his two fights, being dominant on the feet and mat. This fight will likely be close at times and some of the ground game may cancel out. Orolbai should have the edge in striking , so I expect him to get this done. The winner of this fight likely scores well for DFS.
UFC 308 Pick: Orolbai
Geoff Neal (15-6-0) v. Rafael Dos Anjos (32-16-0)
Geoff Neal - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
Rafael dos Anjos - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 32 wins
DFS Perspective: Dos Anjos continues to look good for his age, but you really have to wonder how much he has left in the tank and how well his chin can hold up against a powerful striker like Neal. If Neal wants to get himself back in the win column, he will need to apply more pressure and throw more volume than he did in his last fight. I do not expect to see much on the mat, and without a finish, this fight will likely not score well for DFS.
UFC 308 Pick: Neal
Shara Magomedov (14-0-0) v. Armen Petrosyan (8-3-0)
Shara Magomedov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Armen Petrosyan - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Magomedov's weaknesses and bad decisions will eventually get him in trouble, but I do not see it happening in this fight. Petrosyan will happily welcome a 15 minute striking match, and that should go the way of Magomedov. I expect the pressure and volume of Magomedov to get the job done, but this fight is better left for GPP contests.
UFC 308 Pick: Magomedov
Magomed Ankalaev (19-1-1) v. Aleksandar Rakic (14-4-0)
Magomed Ankalaev - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 18 wins
Aleksandar Rakic - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Rakic will likely need a knockout to win this fight. He offers nothing on the ground and does not throw enough volume for a guy like Ankalaev. Ankalaev showed improved striking in his last fight, recording a first round knockout and cementing his status as the next title contender. I expect Ankalaev to continue his dominance and come out with the win.
UFC 308 Pick: Ankalaev
Lerone Murphy (14-0-1) v. Dan Ige (18-8-0)
Lerone Murphy - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 14 wins
Dan Ige - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Ige showed incredible toughness in his most recent fight, but still came away with the loss. He has a solid all-around game and is a tough matchup for just about anyone. Murphy had his best fight in the UFC to win his sixth in a row last time out, dominating on the feet and mat against Edson Barboza en route to a decision win. I expect more of the same in this one. Though Ige can certainly keep this close, Murphy should be better everywhere and is a solid play for DFS.
UFC 308 Pick: Murphy
Robert Whittaker (26-7-0) v. Khamzat Chimaev (13-0-0)
Robert Whittaker - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 26 wins
Khamzat Chimaev - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight was supposed to happen over the summer but was canceled due to Chimaev withdrawing. Chimaev is now healthy and will be looking to his eighth UFC fight and 14th in a row. However, Whittaker is a dog and one of the best to ever do it. Chimaev will have the edge on the mat if he can get it there, and while he has solid striking, Whittaker's is much more refined. Whittaker also has an excellent ground game himself -- he just rarely uses it, as he prefers to strike. This fight will have a lot of back and forth, but I expect Whittaker to avoid enough takedowns to strike his way to a win. As a dog, he makes an excellent play for DFS.
UFC 308 Pick: Whittaker
Ilia Topuria (15-0-0) v. Max Holloway (26-7-0)
Ilia Topuria - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Max Holloway - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 26 wins
DFS Perspective: Everyone seems to be riding Topuria here, expecting him to give Holloway his first knockout loss. The naysayers seem to have forgotten Max has fought literally everybody and only lost to the best of the best. Topuria would have a considerable edge on the mat if he can take Holloway down, and we have seen Holloway struggle to get back up, so that is a slight worry. However, Holloway is one of the best strikers and cardio monsters the UFC has ever seen, and I do not see that changing in this fight. I expect Holloway to give us a vintage performance, handing Topuria his first loss with heavy volume and technical striking.
UFC 308 Pick: Holloway
Looking to give a new sportsbook a try? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
For bettors who prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
