This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 302 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 302 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Andre Lima (8-0-0) v. Mitch Raposo (9-1-0)
Andre Lima - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
Mitch Raposo - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Lima, despite a rocky debut, has shown potential. His opponent's disqualification was a stroke of luck, but it doesn't discount his skills. Raposo, a proven champion in other promotions, is making his UFC debut, which adds an element of unpredictability. However, based on my analysis, I believe Raposo's wrestling and grappling skills will give him an edge, leading to a potential upset.
UFC 302 Pick: Raposo
Joselyne Edwards (13-5-0) v. Ailin Perez (9-2-0)
Joselyne Edwards - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
Ailin Perez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: In this matchup, both fighters bring similar skill sets to the table. Perez, however, has a slight advantage in terms of overall performance. While Edwards's size advantage could pose a challenge, I believe Perez's skills will prevail. This fight could be a hidden gem for GPP contests if Perez dominates and secures a finish.
UFC 302 Pick: Perez
Mickey Gall (7-5-0) v. Bassil Hafez (8-4-1)
Mickey Gall - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Bassil Hafez - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Hafez, with only one UFC fight under his belt, is a bit of an unknown. Gall, on the other hand, has had a mixed record in the UFC, losing four of his last six fights. While Gall could be a surprise contender with his submission skills, Hafez has shown promise with his ground game in his debut and is likely the better striker. This fight is best left for GPP contests, if at all, due to the uncertainty surrounding Hafez's performance.
UFC 302 Pick: Hafez
Niko Price (15-7-0) v. Alex Morono (24-9-0)
Niko Price - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Alex Morono - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: Morono, despite a controversial recent fight, is expected to come out on top in this matchup. Price's recent performance has been less than stellar, and I anticipate a similar outcome in this fight. My analysis suggests that Morono's experience and skill set will give him a significant advantage, making him a solid choice for all contests.
UFC 302 Pick: Morono
Phil Rowe (10-4-0) v. Jake Matthews (19-7-0)
Phil Rowe - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Jake Matthews - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Rowe clearly has the upper hand when it comes to striking, particularly in terms of power, while Matthews undeniably possesses a considerable advantage in grappling. It would be strategic for Matthews to exploit Rowe's weak takedown defense and dominate the fight on the ground. However, Matthews has frequently opted to focus on striking, resulting in unfavorable outcomes. If Matthews capitalizes on his ground game, he should easily secure a victory in this fight.
UFC 302 Pick: Matthews
Grant Dawson (20-2-1) v. Joe Solecki (13-4-0)
Grant Dawson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 20 wins
Joe Solecki - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Dawson is one of the top plays for all contests on the slate. Dawson outperforms Solecki in every aspect, and I anticipate him bouncing back from the loss in this match.
UFC 302 Pick: Dawson
Roman Kopylov (12-3-0) v. Cesar Almeida (5-0-0)
Roman Kopylov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
Cesar Almeida - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Almeida faces a significant step up in competition. While he looked excellent in his debut and has lightning-quick hands, he showed deficiencies on the mat. On the other hand, Kopylov is only known for striking, so we should expect a boxing match between the two. Both fighters throw a lot of volume, but I firmly believe that Kopylov's experience edge will secure the win. Almeida will be a popular pick, and rightly so, but this is undeniably a tough fight. These fighters are in the middle range of salaries, making them optimal choices for lineup construction.
UFC 302 Pick: Kopylov
Randy Brown (18-5-0) v. Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos (24-7-1)
Randy Brown - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective:This fight is set to be an electrifying clash between two formidable strikers. Zaleski's proven resilience suggests that Brown is unlikely to secure a quick finish. However, Brown is anticipated to dominate in terms of output. The outcome of this match is likely to be determined by a close decision. This bout presents a strategic opportunity for GPP contests.
UFC 302 Pick: Brown
Jailton Almeida (20-3-0) v. Alexandr Romanov (17-2-0)
Jailton Almeida - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 20 wins
Alexandr Romanov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Almeida, despite a recent knockout in his last fight, is a dominant force in the Octagon with 19 finishes in 20 wins. Romanov, while a formidable opponent, has struggled against higher-level competition. I expect Almeida to bounce back from his recent loss and continue his dominant streak in this fight.
UFC 302 Pick: Almeida
Kevin Holland (25-11-0) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-7-0)
Kevin Holland - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 25 wins
Michal Oleksiejczuk - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: If Kevin Holland displays his dominant striking skills, he should secure a potential knockout in the fight. However, if he gets distracted by talking, the match could be much closer than necessary. Oleksiejczuk has the power to end the fight with a single clean hit, but I fully expect Holland to be focused on getting back on track. Consequently, the fight may progress at a slower pace, resulting in lower scores for DFS.
UFC 302 Pick: Holland
Sean Strickland (28-6-0) v. Paulo Costa (14-3-0)
Sean Strickland - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 28 wins
Paulo Costa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: I firmly believe that Costa will continue to struggle in his upcoming fight, just as he did in his last one. Strickland's unorthodox fighting style poses significant challenges for most opponents, and I anticipate that Costa will struggle even more against it. I fully expect Strickland to deliver a dominant performance and emerge victorious in this five-round bout, making it an excellent opportunity for DFS scoring.
UFC 302 Pick: Strickland
Islam Makhachev (25-1-0) v. Dustin Poirier (30-8-0)
Islam Makhachev - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 25 wins
Dustin Poirier - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 23 finishes in 30 wins
DFS Perspective: Whenever a fighter mentions retirement, it's a red flag. Poirier is still pondering his next move post-fight. Makhachev has undeniably established himself as the ultimate UFC fighter, and I firmly believe he won't be defeated here. He remains the top choice on the slate.
UFC 302 Pick: Makhachev
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
