This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
A few late additions to the UFC 292 fight card leave us no worse for the wear, as we are back to break down all 12 contests on the slate across four platforms. Picks this week include a welterweight mainstay at a rock-bottom price, and a submission specialist being asked to do what he does best as a sizable underdog. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and is accurate as to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Zhang Weili ($9,100)
There's no doubt that Amanda Lemos is a formidable opponent for anyone in the division, but her Muay Thai background often makes her a stationary target, which should allow "Magnum" to easily get in on her hips and execute takedowns. While Lemos' power can be a great equalizer in any matchup, Weili has been knocked out just once in 26 professional MMA fights, and she should hold a significant advantage when it comes to agility.
Aljamain Sterling ($9,100)
I understand the tendency to try and find value in Sean O'Malley here, but the fact remains that he has never had to contend with such a strong jiu-jitsu player in the Octagon. While the (questionable) win over Petr Yan put "Suga's" endurance and adaptability on display, he hasn't been consistently tested against the best in the world, nor has he ever been involved in a five-round fight. If he is unable to land a big shot early, I expect "The Funk Master's" experience and skills on the ground to shine in the latter half of the fight, allowing him to pick up a fairly comfortable decision victory
Cody Gibson ($7,700)
Gibson may not have fought at the highest level since 2015, but that doesn't mean he won't be prepared inside the cage. We saw a much more aggressive version of Gibson on this season of The Ultimate Fighter, as he seemed focused on getting the fight to the ground as soon as possible to work his submission game. Brad Katona is a slick kickboxer from range but holds just a 47 percent takedown defense rate and has been grounded nine times in his three UFC fights. It should be noted that one of those bouts came against a grappling menace in Merab Dvalishvili, but that doesn't make me feel any better about Katona's ability to stay on his feet, generally.
Karine Silva ($8,400)
This may seem like a close matchup on paper, as Maryna Moroz has never lost by submission, but I'm not sure she will be ready for the aggressiveness with which Silva pursues the clinch. Once "Killer" is able to get in tight to her opponent, she is a relentless submission hunter, as evidenced by the 4.5 submission average she has notched per 15 minutes of cage time. We've seen Moroz get swallowed up by high-volume strikers like Angela Hill and Jennifer Maia, and it's likely that Silva will give us the grappling version of what that looks like.
Mario Bautista ($9,100)
I have sung the praises of Da'Mon Blackshear in the past, and while I still see him as a future title contender, I'm not sure he's at Bautista's level yet. In fact, I see Bautista as a slightly better version of "The Monster" due to his quicker hands, kicking game, and slick scrambling on the ground. Blackshear deserves full marks for taking this fight just a week after pulling off the third Twister submission in UFC history, but this looks like the final pullback before the 29-year-old begins his ascent in earnest.
Neil Magny ($6,600)
I feel compelled to make this pick, as the veteran is most certainly a new test in the career of "Machado" that he must pass. As much as we'd like to regard "The Haitian Sensation" as nothing more than a gatekeeper, the fact is that he loses almost exclusively to strong grapplers, with a notable exception being his KO/TKO defeat at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio in 2018. Gary has shown toughness and an ability to overcome in his young career, but he's never been in the cage with a tireless grappler such as Magny, who will look to make the fight as grueling as possible for three rounds.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Gregory Rodrigues OVER 28.5 Significant Strikes, Brad Tavares OVER 40.5 Significant Strikes, and Natalia Silva 65.5 Significant Strikes
The line on Rodrigues seems to be heavily factoring in his last bout, as he has exceeded this significant strike total in all of his previous five contests with room to spare. It's not as though his opponent here is a pushover either, as Denis Tiuliulin has gone into the second round in two of his three bouts with the organization. I've given up on expecting "Robocop" to wrestle and use his jiu-jitsu and am preparing myself for a range kickboxing match for as long as this one lasts.
Trying to cap a Chris Weidman fight in 2023 is like venturing out into the great unknown. We haven't seen the former middleweight champion since he stuffed a horrific broken leg in the opening seconds of his bout with Uriah Hall in 2021, and while he was able to notch a win over Omari Akhmedov prior to that, the bout was much closer than it likely would have been if "The All-American" was in his prime. Nevertheless, Weidman has largely sustained his durability at middleweight, and Brad Tavares has notched just one KO/TKO victory in his last seven fights. This leads me to believe the most likely outcome is a three-round decision in which the Hawian native comfortably exceeds this significant strike total.
Andrea Lee is a high-output kickboxer who seldom wrestles as much as she should. This output will ensure that the action takes place from range in her bout with Silva, who is competent enough on that ground that Lee may be dissuaded from going to the ground at all. This would be the best-case scenario for our prospects, as it would likely result in a significant strike total that far exceeds the mark to hit.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Pedro Munhoz – 1.95 X Multiplier
If nothing else, Munhoz has established himself as someone who can sprint out of the gates and use his power and aggression to pick up early rounds. This seems like a uniquely bad style matchup for Marlon Vera, who tends to let rounds slip away due to being outworked by his opponent. As with most of his bouts, Munhoz will be on the wrong end of so many physical attributes that a victory may be hard to imagine, but all that's really required here is that he lands a few hard shots and be more active than Vera for about 10 minutes. As an added bonus, he should be able to attack the legs with regularity, as "Chito" tends to lean very heavily on his front foot.
Kurt Holobaugh – 1.95 X Multiplier
Throughout his UFC career, Austin Hubbard's victories have mainly come by being able to outlast his opponent. This should be a tough ask against Holobaugh, who throws incredibly hard and has quick hands in the pocket. While he has technically had more success in the organization, I would rate a knockdown of Shane Burgos above any of Hubbard's UFC accomplishments, and I'm frankly not sure why this line needs to be anything other than even money.
Bets to Consider
Gerald Meerschaert wins via submission (+390)
The logic for this one is fairly tidy, as Andre Petroski is going to give a man with 28 submission victories the exact kind of fight he wants. We've seen "GM3" overwhelmed by stronger grapplers before, but we've also seen Petroski flag as fights have gone into the latter rounds. As we saw in Meerschaert's fight with Dustin Stoltzfus, the wily veteran can hang around until his opponent relents and gives him a choke. While it would hardly be surprising if Petroski came away with a win here, it's hard not to take a shot at Meerschaert finding his neck at this price.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC 292 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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