This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Boston, Massachusetts on Saturday, Aug. 19 for UFC 292. In the main event, Aljamain Sterling looks to defend his bantamweight title against Sean O'Malley.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Lightweight
Austin Hubbard (15-6) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (19-7)
On the prelims of UFC 292 is the TUF 31 finals, and at lightweight, we have a battle of two ex-UFC fighters in Austin Hubbard and Kurt Holobaugh. I'm backing Hubbard to get the win and become the new Ultimate Fighter.
Hubbard is someone I think was cut prematurely, and he proved that on TUF, as he looked good on the show and had success. Holobaugh, meanwhile, is a veteran who had two UFC stints -- going 0-4 in total -- but fought some really tough opponents.
In this one, Holobaugh is the better striker, especially when he is the more aggressive fighter. However, I expect Hubbard to use his clinch work and wrestling to control Holobaugh to win a decision. We have seen Holobaugh struggle against grapplers, and I expect that to continue here. Hubbard has all the tools to grind out a win.
UFC 292 Best Bet: Austin Hubbard (-170)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Chris Weidman (15-6) vs. Brad Tavares (19-8)
In the prelim headliner, Chris Weidman makes his return from the devastating leg injury he suffered back in 2021. It's been a long road to recovery for Weidman, who is now set to face Brad Tavares. I like the former champ to get the win as a sizable underdog.
There are a lot of questions in this fight about how Weidman will look after the injury, but to me, if he's fighting to how he was before the injury, he would be a small favorite over Tavares. The Hawaiian has struggled as of late, as he's on a two-fight losing skid and was just knocked out in April.
On the feet, Weidman's chin is always a concern, but Tavares is not a power puncher, so I expect Weidman to use his wrestling to get the win. Weidman is relentless with his wrestling and clinch work, so I expect him to wear on Tavares to grind out a decision.
UFC 292 Best Bet: Chris Weidman (+220)
Weight Class: Strawweight
Zhang Weili (23-3) vs. Amanda Lemos (13-2-1)
In the co-main event of UFC 292, Zhang Weili is set to defend her strawweight title against Amanda Lemos. I like Weili to get the win by stoppage.
Weili is a finisher at strawweight, as out of her seven UFC wins, she accumulated four stoppages. She has legit one-punch KO power while also possessing a great ground game that could present problems for Lemos.
Why I also like Weili to win inside the distance is the fact Lemos has never gone five rounds. In her fight against Angela Hill, she looked tired and slowed down considerably. I worry about her cardio over five rounds, as I expect Weili to out-wrestle her and get a ground-and-pound TKO or potentially a submission in the third or fourth round.
UFC 292 Best Bet: Zhang Weili ITD (-150)
Weight Classes: Middleweight & Women's flyweight
Gregory Rodrigues (13-5) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (11-7)
Natalia Silva (15-5-1) vs. Andrea Lee (13-7)
For my parlay, I'm taking Gregory Rodrigues and Natalia Silva to get their hands raised in Boston on Saturday.
The second fight of the night is Silva vs. Lee, and the Brazilian (Silva) is someone I'm super high on. She has been impressive in her UFC career, including a dominant win over Jasmine Jasudavicius in her debut, and Jasudavicius has since gone on to become a top-15 fighter. Silva has knockout power and throws a ton of volume. She also has great takedown defense ,which will be important against Lee, who wrestles when she is getting out-struck.
Silva is the better and more powerful striker, and the damage will be the difference in getting her hand raised by decision.
To close out the parlay, I'm taking Gregory Rodrigues to beat Denis Tiuliulin which looks like a get-right fight for Rodrigues. Rodrigues did suffer a surprising knockout loss back in January, but the Brazilian is still a great striker. On the other hand, to me, Tiuliulin is not a UFC-caliber fighter.
Tiuliulin struggles against grapplers, but even on the feet, he is too easy to get hit. I expect the striking and power of Rodrigues to be too much for him and for the Brazilian to eventually get a TKO win.
UFC 292 Best Bet: Gregory Rodrigues & Natalia Silva parlay (-156)
UFC 292 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 292 best bets:
- Austin Hubbard (-170)
- Chris Weidman (+220)
- Zhang Weili ITD (-150)
- Gregory Rodrigues & Natalia Silva parlay (-156)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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