This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to London, England on Saturday, July 23 for UFC London. In the main event, Tom Aspinall takes on the biggest challenge of his career as he faces Curtis Blaydes.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a two-fighter parlay on. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Tom Aspinall (12-2) vs. Curtis Blaydes (16-3)
Although Aspinall is getting another step up in competition, I actually like the Brit to get past Blaydes and likely do so by stoppage.
Aspinall submitted Alexander Volkov in the first round in March in a very eye-opening performance, as it proved how well-rounded he is. The Brit has solid wrestling and jiu-jitsu while also being a great striker. Blaydes is arguably the best wrestler at heavyweight and could pose some problems, but I expect Aspinall to be able to keep it standing and on the feet, where he can hurt Blaydes.
Aspinall will be the faster striker, as he lands 7.33 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.65. Blaydes, meanwhile, only lands 3.52 and absorbs 1.68, yet Aspinall has a 100 percent takedown defense. If this means he can stay upright against such a talented wrestler, I like his chances of getting the KO win.
UFC London Bet: Tom Aspinall (-130)
Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Victoria Leonardo (8-4) vs. Mandy Bohm (7-1)
For my underdog play, I'm taking Victoria Leonardo to beat Mandy Bohm. To me, the wrong fighter is favored here.
Although Leonardo is 0-2 in the UFC, she lost to Manon Fiorot and Melissa Gatto, even suffering a broken arm against the latter. Both of those fighters are legitimate prospects/contenders. Bohm, meanwhile, lost to Ariane Lipski last time out in a fight she didn't look impressive in.
Both Leonardo and Bohm are there to be hit and have struggled with striking defense, yet I do think Leonardo is the better striker. She can also rely on her wrestling to get the fight to the mat and grind out a decision win as an underdog.
UFC London Bet: Victoria Leonardo (+110)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett (18-3) vs. Jordan Leavitt (10-1)
Paddy Pimblett is a superstar in the making and gets a very favorable matchup against Jordan Leavitt.
Where Leavitt has success is through his grappling, but that is Pimblett's forte. In my eyes, Pimblett looks like the better grappler. The person to eventually beat Pimblett is someone with legit one-punch KO power, which Leavitt doesn't have, as his striking leaves a lot to be desired.
In this one, I expect Pimblett to be able to keep it standing and piece up Leavitt and either get a KO win over hurt him and hop on a choke. Regardless, Pimblett inside the distance is the way to go here, as the Brit has finished eight of his last 10 fights.
UFC London Bet: Paddy Pimblett ITD (-120)
Weight Class: Featherweight & Women's flyweight
Jonathan Pearce (12-4) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (17-7)
Molly McCann (12-4) vs. Hannah Goldy (6-2)
In the parlay, I'm taking Jonathan Pearce and Molly McCann to get their hands raised Saturday night in London.
Pearce has looked great at featherweight and gets a big-name opponent in Makwan Amirkhani. Amirkhani is a great grappler, but his cardio and striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. If he gets extended, he seems to gas out. Pearce is very strong at 145lbs and can stuff the takedowns and force Amirkhani to strike with him. On the feet, Pearce lands 4.98 significant strikes per minute compared to Amirkhani's 1.36. If he doesn't get the finish, the volume of Pearce will be the difference to win a decision.
In the other leg, I'm taking Molly McCann to beat Hannah Goldy, as the Scouser gets a favorable matchup here.
McCann's a tough boxer who likes to get in her opponent's face and can cause a ton of damage. Goldy, meanwhile, does throw a ton of volume, but she doesn't do a ton of damage. I expect McCann to just walk through her punches and land the bigger shots. The Brit can also mix in the wrestling to help win the rounds and likely win a decision.
UFC London Bet: Jonathan Pearce & Molly McCann parlay (-114)
UFC London Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC London event:
- Tom Aspinall (-130)
- Victoria Leonardo (+110)
- Paddy Pimblett ITD (-120)
- Jonathan Pearce & Molly McCann parlay (-114)
