Kyle Harrison

Harrison walked three or more batters in 11 of his 20 starts at Triple-A, where automated balls and strikes may have increased walk rates relative to when humans are calling the game. He walked at least one batter but no more than two batters in all seven of his big-league starts, which lends credence to the theory that he may have less of a control issue when the human element is involved. Harrison always missed bats at an elite clip in the minors, with strikeout rates north of 35 percent at every stop. However his propensity to walk batters has held him back at times. The gap between his walk rate at Triple-A (16.3 percent) and the big leagues (7.5 percent) is essentially the difference between a pitcher destined for relief and a pitcher who comfortably projects as a starter. The 6-foot-2 southpaw was the third-youngest pitcher to make five-plus starts in the majors (only Eury Perez and AJ Smith-Shawver were younger), so it's fair to expect further skill development in the coming years for Harrison, who won't turn 23 until August. He is a flyball pitcher (26.8 GB% in the big leagues), but he has a good home park for that approach, as Oracle Park has the third-lowest home run park factor, per Baseball Savant's 3-year rolling average. He should make the rotation out of spring training, but a hamstring injury limited him to 102.1 innings, so the Giants may cap him at around 150 innings in the regular season.

Harrison isn't a perfect pitching prospect, but he is as good as they come with regards to missing bats. The 21-year-old southpaw struck out 186 in 113 innings across 25 starts between High-A and Double-A, with the bulk of his work coming at Double-A. He has a standard three-pitch mix (fastball/slider/changeup) and can get whiffs on any of his pitches in any count if he executes. Harrison had an 11.2 BB% at Double-A, but he cut down on the walks as the summer went on, and most evaluators expect him to stick as a starting pitcher. He is a flyball pitcher (35.6 GB%, 11 HR allowed at Double-A), so assuming his command and control are never elite, he will likely fail to log ace-level ratios, even if he is one of the game's top strikeout arms. While Harrison is not on the 40-man roster, he is clearly the team's best young pitcher, so a 2023 MLB debut is in the cards if he earns it.

Harrison could be a frontline starter if the rest of his development goes smoothly. We shouldn't count on that happening, but his talent and upside were on full display last year. The 20-year-old southpaw struck out 157 over 98.2 innings at Low-A, but his 1.40 WHIP on the year was obviously a red flag. That said, he closed the year on a high note, logging an 0.97 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 61:13 K:BB in 37 innings over his final eight starts. He can already touch 98 mph with his four-seam fastball, and his slider and changeup might be 70-grade offerings in time. Both offspeed pitches got whiffs at over a 40% clip last season. If his late-season control gains hold and he can stay healthy, Harrison should cruise through the minors and may eventually pitch atop the Giants' rotation.