This article is part of our MMA Barometer series.
As mixed martial arts fans, the worst thing that can take place is our favorite fighter staying in the game too long and taking excessive damage when they can no longer compete at a high level. It is much more satisfying to see legends of the sport retire at the top of their game successfully facing elite competition, even though that is exceedingly rare. In the past month B.J. Penn has announced he will be training with Greg Jackson in Albuquerque, New Mexico as he eyes a comeback to the UFC. I think I speak on behalf of all fans, but I hope Penn does not follow through with the comeback.
In his last three fights Penn has been dismantled by each opponent, with two fights at welterweight and one at featherweight. Penn has vowed he will fight on the March 5 card headlined by dos Anjos vs. McGregor, and it is difficult to believe he will be ready to go after only training for a short time in New Mexico. If he is going to follow through with this comeback he should be sure not to rush it so he can put on a respectable performance. The silver lining is Penn will be training with one of the best teams and best trainers in the world. If anybody can put together a strategy to make B.J. Penn be successful again it is Greg Jackson. It will also benefit Penn to have striking guru Mike Winkeljohn on his team because if Penn attempts to use the same stance as in his last fight against Frankie Edgar, it is hard to imagine him winning any fights in the UFC. It would probably be in his best interests to go back to his traditional stance and possibly consider going to the ground and utilizing his high level of skill in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Whatever his new strategy is, Penn is in the best environment he could be for a comeback.
Even though he is in a good environment for a comeback, it is still discouraging that a legend will be coming back and not fighting in big fights. Penn has recently been calling out Nik Lentz, and now that the Lentz fight has fallen through he has his sights set on Dennis Siver. Both fighters are featherweights, which is bizarre because Penn was always dominant as a lightweight. These are also not the kind of opponents that are worthy to fight BJ Penn. If Penn can't compete at the highest level then there is no sense in making a comeback. He should be content in being one of the best fighters to ever fight in the UFC and not risk diminishing his legacy by losing to fringe contenders. Hopefully BJ comes to his senses and decides not to follow through with the comeback.
As always, below is your MMA barometer with rising, falling, and check status fighters.
Rising
Eddie Alvarez
Eddie Alvarez has begun to hit his stride in the UFC. After coming over from Bellator as the promotion's lightweight champion, many people expected Alvarez to continue his winning ways. His UFC career got off to a somewhat rocky start as he lost a unanimous decision against Donald Cerrone in his promotional debut. However, Alvarez is 2-0 since his fight with Cerrone, with to victories over former title contenders in Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis. Each win was a split decision, but coming against two game opponents, it is an encouraging pair of fights for Alvarez. A concern with Alvarez is that he is not enjoying the same high finishing rate in the UFC as he did in Bellator. This can almost certainly be attributed to facing stiffer competition, and it will be difficult for to secure finishes in his next few fights, which will be against the elite of the UFC lightweight division. Alvarez is currently the No. 1-ranked UFC lightweight contender, and there are seemingly only two options for his next opponent: either wait for the winner of lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos and featherweight champion Conor McGregor, or fight Tony Ferguson (who is on a five-fight winning streak) to determine the next challenger for the lightweight strap. Either way, Alvarez will face a huge test for the fourth time in a row inside the Octagon and should have a shot at UFC gold in the near future.
Next Fight: TBA
Ben Rothwell
Ben Rothwell is enjoying a career resurgence as he rides a four-fight winning streak in the UFC heavyweight division. Rothwell has not lost since January 2013 and has recorded finishes in each of his four victories since that time. Most recently he submitted Josh Barnett, a former UFC champion and veteran of 42 professional mixed martial arts fights. It was the first time Barnett suffered a legitimate submission loss in his long career. Rothwell poses a problem for most heavyweights because he is one of the biggest fighters in the division, has tricky submissions and possesses some of the heaviest hands in the division. His striking skills were on display in his September 2014 fight against Alistair Overeem, where Rothwell knocked out the decorated Dutch kickboxer in the first round. Rothwell has been campaigning for a title shot after his submission victory over Barnett, but it is unlikely he is next in line for a title shot. Either Cain Velasquez or Stipe Miocic will likely get the next shot at Fabricio Werdum. Rothwell will be matched up with a top-five fighter in his next outing, and some potentially interesting fights would be a rematch with Alistair Overeem or a fight with Travis Browne. Both would be intriguing, fan-pleasing stand-up wars. Rothwell is on top of his game right now and presents a big challenge to any opponent he fights.
Next fight: TBA
Joseph Benavidez
The second best flyweight in the world is on a comfortable four-fight winning streak in the UFC. In fact, Benavidez is 7-2 as a flyweight with his only two losses coming to UFC flyweight champion and pound-for-pound stalwart Demetrious Johnson. Benavidez is an incredibly well rounded fighter, as he has great knockout power, stand up skills and also fantastic submissions, including a vicious trademark Team Alpha Male guillotine choke. However, Benavidez is in a difficult position because of his two losses to Johnson. The UFC is likely not as interested in scheduling a third bout between the two fighters because Johnson won both of the previous fights, including the last one by devastating knockout. That means Benavidez just has to continue to win fights until the UFC has no other option than to match him up with Johnson for the third time. Until that time comes, it is hard to imagine Benavidez losing to anybody at flyweight, especially with John Dodson bolting for the UFC bantamweight division. Expect Benavidez's streak to continue for the foreseeable future.
Next Fight: Zach Makovsky, UFC Fight Night: Hendricks v. Thompson (February 6th, 2016)
Check Status
Tyron Woodley
Even though he has been idle since January 2015, don't sleep on Tyron Woodley. He is one of the most explosive athletes in the welterweight division and his won four of his last five fights, with the only loss coming by decision to Rory MacDonald. Along with is athleticism, one of Woodley's best attributes is his ability to dictate where the fight takes place. He has 60 percent takedown accuracy and a very impressive 92 percent takedown defense. Woodley has been spending more time honing his striking with Duke Roufus, so he feels comfortable standing up in almost any fight, but if he chooses he can fall back on his Division I wrestling pedigree and take the fight to the ground. Even though he has not fought for a year, Woodley is still probably next in line for a title shot. He and Johnny Hendricks were supposed to participate in a title eliminator in 2015, but Hendricks failed to make weight and Woodley was left without an opponent. Woodley does not have anybody ranked ahead of him except for Carlos Condit and Hendricks, so all he can do is wait to see if the UFC decides to do Lawler vs. Condit II. If the UFC does not do the rematch, it is likely Woodley will get the next shot. It would not make sense for Hendricks to surpass Woodley for a title shot because Hendricks missed weight before their 2015 contest. Woodley must be patient, but expect him to continue to be an explosive and dominant fighter whenever he gets his next opportunity.
Next Fight: TBA
Falling
Yoel Romero
In the least surprising news of the year, Yoel Romero was flagged by the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency for a potential violation of the UFC anti-doping policy for an out of competition test. It is odd to have a fighter on a seven-fight winning streak in the falling category, but if Romero's positive test is confirmed, a two-year ban will be devastating and potentially career ending for the 38-year-old middleweight. He won a close split decision against Jacare Souza in December and seemed to be in prime position for the next shot at the UFC middleweight championship. However, with this potential USADA violation, Romero could be far from a title shot. If he is suspended for two years it will be difficult for him to climb the ranks again at the age of 40. Furthermore, if Romero was taking performance enhancing drugs, it will be hard for his body to adjust to fighting without the extra help because of his age. Romero is waiting for the results of his B-sample test, but it is certainly not far-fetched to believe that test will come back as positive. If it does come back as positive, this could very well be the end of the road for Yoel Romero's UFC career.
Next Fight: TBA
Paige VanZant
VanZant is still only 21 years old, so she has a ton of room to grow. However, her latest fight with Rose Namajunas exposed some real holes in Vanzant's game. Up to the Namajunas fight, VanZant looked absolutely dominant in the UFC. All three of her UFC fights were dominant victories, but Namajunas showed what a fighter with great technique can do to a fighter who relies more on effort. VanZant has outworked her opponents in her other UFC fights and just kept coming forward, which was hard for those opponents to deal with. However, when she tried to apply the same pressure to Namajunas, VanZant found it hard to track her down, and when she did find her, had little success with hip tosses and judo throws. Another concerning aspect of the fight was any time VanZant was able to clinch with Namajunas, she continuously went for the same takedown even though she was having no success and often getting reversed. It was discouraging that she did not switch up her game plan during the fight, but once again, she is a young fighter with a lot of room to grow. Even though some holes were exposed in VanZant's game, she will definitely become a better fighter because of it. This was also an eye-opening experience to see just how tough VanZant is. She took a beating for five rounds but refused to back down and kept moving forward. That is very important, as it shows she has a fighter's mentality. She will almost undoubtedly get back to the top of the division as she gains more experience and adds more tools to her game.
Next Fight: TBA
Brandon Thatch
After losing his last two fights, it has become clear what type of fighter Brandon Thatch is. If the fight is standing up Thatch has an advantage over most opponents, but once it goes to the ground he is at a disadvantage against many of his opponents. Thatch is a massive welterweight and proved that his size translated into devastating power with two first round knockouts in his first two UFC contests. However, in his last two fights he has suffered submission losses. The argument can be made that his losses were to two elite grapplers in Ben Henderson and Gunnar Nelson, so Thatch's ground game might not be that deficient, but any time the fights hit the floor, even before he was submitted, he looked uncomfortable and outclassed. Thatch has a favorable matchup in his upcoming fight against Siyar Bahadurzada, as Bahadurzada prefers to keep the fight standing, but he certainly needs to focus on his grappling and jiu-jitsu to prepare for upper echelon competition. There is a good possibility that Thatch wins his next fight, but if he wants to be able to move up in the rankings, he must become a more well rounded mixed martial artist.
Next Fight: Siyar Bahadurzada, UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Oliveira (February 21st, 2016)
