This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 84 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Felipe Bunes (13-6-0) v. Joshua Van (9-1-0)
Felipe Bunes - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Joshua Van - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Bunes is making his UFC debut after stringing together some wins in the LFA promotion. He is a low-level fighter with a solid ground game but offers little else. Van is taking the fight on short notice but should be more than capable of handling Bunes. His striking will be leagues better, and his grappling should keep him from getting submitted.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Van
Tom Nolan (6-0-0) v. Nikolas Motta (13-5-0)
Tom Nolan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
Nikolas Motta - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Nolan is making his UFC debut as an undefeated fighter and a successful Round 1 finish on the Contender Series. Motta is 1-2 in the UFC and has shown little to show he belongs in the UFC. I expect this to start close, but for Nolan to pull away with volume and potentially end this early.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Nolan
Westin Wilson (16-8-0) v. Jean Silva (11-2-0)
Westin Wilson - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins
Jean Silva - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: We did not see much from Wilson in his UFC debut, as he was knocked out in the first round. Silva is making his UFC debut after a win on the Contender Series. The odds should be much closer than they are for this fight, but Silva should be better everywhere except for grappling. I expect this to start close, with Silva taking over as the fight continues, unless Wilson gets this to the mat right away. I do not expect a high score from this fight without a finish.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Silva
Farid Basharat (11-0-0) v. Taylor Lapilus (19-3-0)
Farid Basharat - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Taylor Lapilus - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Lapilus is a dangerous striker and can make this close on the feet. However, Basharat should be better in every aspect outside of striking. I expect Basharat to get this fight to the mat, where he can suffocate Lapilus with his wrestling and potentially take him out early.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Basharat
Marcus McGhee (8-1-0) v. Gaston Bolanos (7-3-0)
Marcus McGhee - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
Gaston Bolanos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: The odds should be closer than they are in this fight. McGhee has two consecutive wins against a low level of competition, though both have ended by finish. Bolanos is an impressive striker and has great power. I expect Bolanos to be the better striker and throw more volume, making him an excellent dog play.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Bolanos
Matthew Semelsberger (11-6-0) v. Preston Parsons (10-4-0)
Matthew Semelsberger - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Preston Parsons - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Semelsberger is taking the fight on short notice but will have a considerable edge on the feet. Parsons is a decent striker but an excellent grappler and will be looking to get this to the mat as soon as possible. If Parsons cannot get this to the mat, he will get lit up on the feet. Semelsberger has had trouble getting taken down in the past, so I will side with the dog. However, I would not be surprised to see this go the other way.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Parsons
Andrei Arlovski (34-22-0) v. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (10-1-0)
Andrei Arlovski - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 34 wins
Waldo Cortes-Acosta - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Arlovski is now 44 and has visibly lost a step. I do not expect much out of him aside from defense. Cortes-Acosta will have a considerable edge in volume and power. His defense is strong enough to avoid getting hit hard by Arlovski, and I expect him to win a lower-scoring decision. There is an outside shot that Cortes-Acosta finishes Arlovski, making him a solid play for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Cortes-Acosta
Phil Hawes (12-5-0) v. Brunno Ferreira (10-1-0)
Phil Hawes - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
Brunno Ferreira - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a must-target fight for DFS contests, as both guys have a penchant for getting finished in Round 1. Both fighters have knockout power and an ability to fight on the mat. However, I expect this to remain upright until one of them finds the knockout. Ferreira is ferocious, but his cardio wanes as the fight goes on. Hawes has fought better competition, so I will side with him, but I will not be surprised if it goes the other way.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Hawes
Ricky Simon (20-4-0) v. Mario Bautista (13-2-0)
Ricky Simon - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
Mario Bautista - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the more exciting fights on the card. Both guys are well-rounded, but Simon will have the edge in wrestling, while Bautista has the edge in striking. If Simon has his way chaining takedowns, he will crush value. Unless he records an early finish, Bautista will likely score low with a decision. I expect Simon to execute his game plan and get the job done.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Simon
Jim Miller (36-17-0) v. Gabriel Benitez (23-10-0)
Jim Miller - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 26 finishes in 36 wins
Gabriel Benitez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Miller is now 40 but has won four of his last five fights and appears to have plenty left in the tank. Benitez is now 35 but has only won four of his last six and seems to have lost a step. Combined, their last six wins have all come by early stoppage. Given Miller's newfound power, I would give him the edge everywhere. It is his fight to lose. This is a great fight to target for all contests.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Miller
Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) v. Manel Kape (19-6-0)
Matheus Nicolau - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
Manel Kape - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a rematch from early-2021. Nicolau had won four-straight before losing his most recent fight, while Kape has ran himself to a four-fight winning streak since his loss to Nicolau. That fight ended in a split decision, but I expect this fight to have a more obvious winner. Kape was still finding his bearings in the UFC and has since done so on his winning streak. I expect him to come out with a vengeance and potentially end this fight early. I do not see a high score coming out of this one without a finish.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Kape
Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1) v. Johnny Walker (21-7-0)
Magomed Ankalaev - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 17 wins
Johnny Walker - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 82" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: (Rematch after no-contest in October) Ankalaev was robbed of the belt last time out, losing a split decision after 25 minutes. Walker finds himself a win away from a title bout but runs into the division's most complete fighter. Both fighters have solid defensive tendencies and hardly get hit. Walker will have an edge in reach, but I do not see it playing much of a part. The most significant difference in this fight will be Ankalaev's wrestling. If he takes this to the mat, he will find all sorts of success. If he stands and strikes for 15 minutes, it makes this fight much closer.
UFC Vegas 84 Pick: Ankalaev
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 84 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
