This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 304 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 304 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $750k UFC 304 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight Championship
(C) Leon Edwards (22-3-0, 1NC) v. Belal Muhammad (23-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Edwards ($8,800), Muhammad ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Edwards (-245), Muhammad (+200)
This is a rematch of a March 2021 fight in which Muhammad absorbed an accidental eye poke early in Round 2 and was unable to continue.
Still arguably the most underrated fighter in the company despite being champion, Edwards is closing in on nine years without a loss. He's riding a 12-fight winning streak and 13-fight unbeaten streak. Some of his victims over that span include Kamaru Usman (twice), Colby Covington, Nate Diaz, Rafael dos Anjos, Gunnar Nelson, Donald Cerrone and Vicente Luque. Edwards may not "feel" like one of the best fighters in the world, but his body of work firmly suggests otherwise.
Having just turned 36 years of age, Muhammad is more than worthy of this opportunity. He enters on a nine-fight winning streak and 10-fight unbeaten streak. Included in that stretch are victories over Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, Luque, Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia. He's a worthy challenger.
This is the rare fight in which both competitors have improved tremendously as they have aged.
If there's one knock on Edwards it's that he doesn't have fight-altering power in his hands. He's a very technical striker, capable of stringing together combinations and taking advantage of whatever opportunities his opponent gives him. With the crowd behind him and with a three-inch edge in height and two-inch edge in reach, I would give Leon the edge in the stand-up.
Muhammad's edge is going to come in terms of pace and wrestling. He undoubtedly has one of the best gas tanks in the sport today. It looks like he can fight for ten rounds and not slow down in the slightest.
Belal's pace is so extreme that he doesn't need to be landing takedowns in order to be successful. Sure, he got Luque five times and Thompson seven times, but he beat both Burns and Brady easily without landing a single takedown. Just the constant pressure and ability to force his opposition up against the cage is often more than enough.
You might think Edwards would handle Muhammad with ease given he got past Covington in his last fight with no issues, but Belal's gas tank is way better, and he uses it much more intelligently. For what it's worth, Colby landed 2-of-10 takedowns in that fight.
Given the fact he's fighting at home and his recent body of work, I'm very hesitant to pick against Edwards. He's an all-around threat, has no noticeable holes in his game and has had only one down performance in about a decade -- that was the first Usman fight which he was losing on the scorecards before he won via head-kick knockout with 56 seconds left to win the championship.
That said, I just have a feeling about Muhammad in this spot. We've seen Edwards slow down in the latter stages of fights (see Nate Diaz), and you know Belal is going to keep an insane pace for 25 minutes. At the bare minimum, he seems like a good DraftKings value play. I'll pick him outright in a close one.
THE PICK: Muhammad
Co-Main Event - Interim Heavyweight Championship
(C) Tom Aspinall (14-3-0) v. Curtis Blaydes (18-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Aspinall ($9,400), Blaydes ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Aspinall (-360), Blaydes (+285)
Speaking of rematches, these two fought in July 2022 -- a fight Blaydes won via TKO when Aspinall suffered a knee injury 15 seconds in.
Aspinall has rebounded nicely from the injury, scoring first-round knockout defeats of Sergei Pavlovich (which won him the title) and Marcin Tybura, neither of which lasted longer than 73 seconds. All told, Aspinall is 7-1 in the UFC with all seven wins coming via stoppage. His skills are legitimate.
Blaydes is more difficult to figure out. He's an exceptional athlete for a heavyweight and a quality wrestler, but he hasn't exactly looked strong since the first Aspinall fight. He was knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich and then dominated for five-plus minutes by Jailton Almeida before he managed to find a knockout of his own. Already 33 years of age, Curtis could very easily be on the back nine of his career considering how much of a part athleticism plays in his success.
It sure appears that Tom has multiple advantages in this fight. For starters, like Edwards, he's fighting at home. That's not a huge deal, but it's worth mentioning.
Aspinall also has a heck of an edge in the power department, as well. We've seen Blaydes crumbled by the likes of Pavlovich, Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou. I wouldn't say Aspinall has fight-altering power on the level of those guys, but he's clearly above-average in that area.
Yet, the biggest issue for Curtis figures to be his poor takedown defense. Yes, he averages a whopping 5.72 takedowns of his own per 15 minutes, but his takedown defense is a woeful 31 percent. He was taken down nine (!!!!) times by Almeida in the opening round of their fight. Do I think Aspinall is going to come out and wrestle? No, but given the fact he's never been taken down in his entire UFC run, he should at least be able to remain upright until he gets his hands going.
Truth be told, I'm not a big Blaydes guy. He's a cardio/wrestler with questionable secondary skills. He seems to be trending in the wrong direction. Now you want him to go into hostile territory and pull a big upset? I'd bet against it.
Aspinall seems overpriced simply because of the volatility that comes in most every single heavyweight fight, but he's going to have the crowd behind him and clearly has more ways to win. As long as he isn't pinned to the mat for long stretches at a time, I think he wins.
THE PICK: Aspinall
Lightweight
Bobby Green (32-15-1, 1NC) v. Paddy Pimblett (21-3-0)
DK Salaries: Green ($8,200), Pimblett ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Green (-120), Pimblett (+100)
Before we get started, yes, Bobby legally changed his first name to "King."
King will be 38 years of age this coming September. He's rebounded from a tough stretch to go 3-1 in his past four bouts, including a shocking 33-second knockout win over Grant Dawson in a main event last October. He's clearly on the back nine of his career, but not only will he get a hefty payday for his troubles here, this is also a fight I think he stands an excellent chance of winning.
It's impossible to argue with the results, given Paddy is a perfect 5-0 in the UFC with three stoppage wins, but his run has been underwhelming, at least in my eyes. Simply put, he's taken advantage of subpar competition. He last fought in December, going the full 15 minutes with the corpse of Tony Ferguson. I see an average competitor across the board, capable of putting on nice performances against fringe-roster fighters. Green, even at his advanced age, most definitely isn't that.
Green is going to have a massive edge on the feet. He still has supreme confidence in his hands and excellent boxing skills. He's understandably getting hit a bit more as he's aged, but Pimblett doesn't have the technical boxing skills to consistently win the stand-up exchanges between the two. I think King routs him on the feet, forcing Paddy to try to get this fight to the mat.
Paddy has taken down three of his five opponents, but even then, he's only landed one in each fight. He's certainly not an offensive wrestler, connecting on just 25 percent of his attempts. He's not going to spam takedown attempts against Green, and even if he gets him to the mat, I'm not entirely sure he's strong enough to keep him there.
My main concern in this fight is something funny happening on the scorecards. Paddy is going to have the crowd firmly behind him, and I could easily see him being gifted a decision (a la his win over Jared Gordon back in December 2022).
I openly admit that when I see a fight I feel this strongly about, especially one that is fairly even in terms of odds, alarm bells start going off because it all seems too easy. I'm all in on Green to win, but I have concerns.
THE PICK: Green
Flyweight
Muhammad Mokaev (12-0-0, 1NC) v. Manel Kape (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Mokaev ($8,400), Kape ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Mokaev (-140), Kape (+120)
Mokaev has been unstoppable thus far, debuting in the UFC back in March 2022 and winning each of his first half-dozen fights with the company, including four submissions and two unanimous decisions. He's faced reasonable, if not top-flight, competition to date (Alex Perez, Tim Elliott, Cody Durden). Kape figures to be by far his toughest test.
A former Rizin Bantamweight Champion, Kape was scheduled to fight Matheus Nicolau twice earlier this year. The first time he missed weight by a whopping 3.5 pounds, and the fight was cancelled. He withdrew the second time due to undisclosed reasons. The former is far more concerning than the latter. Kape has now missed weight twice during his fairly brief UFC run, and it's definitely worth seeing how he looks on the scales on Friday before investing in him.
Mokaev scares me because his entire game is based around his wrestling. He averages a whopping 5.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's gotten each of his last five opponents to the mat at least three times. Because he spends so much time in top position, we haven't been able to get a great feel for his striking. He certainly doesn't have the look of a high-volume guy, which is understandable. Mokaev has never had to learn the finer points of the stand-up game. I think he could be in serious trouble if Kape is able to remain upright.
Kape's takedown defense is 77 percent. He was taken down twice by both David Dvorak and Nicolau, but went the distance with current UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantoja in his UFC debut and was able to stay standing. He absolutely knows what's coming with Mokaev. I'd be very surprised if Kape and his team didn't devise a strong game plan to keep upright in hopes of attacking Mokaev on the feet.
Mokaev was born in Dagestan, but fights out of Manchester, so he's going to be the one with the crowd firmly in his corner. Again, that's a concern. All these fights are projected to be close, and we need the judges to get it correct.
I've been looking to fade Mokaev for a while now, and this seems like the correct spot. I need him to prove to me he can win a fight against a quality opponent in which his takedowns aren't landing consistently. Until then, I'm going to be skeptical.
THE PICK: Kape
Featherweight
Arnold Allen (19-3-0) v. Giga Chikadze (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Allen ($9,000), Chikadze ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Allen (-250), Chikadze (+205)
Allen enters having dropped back-to-back unanimous decisions, but when you take into account those setbacks came against Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev, it's much more understandable. Allen hasn't fought much during his time with the UFC, competing just a dozen times since June 2015. Chikadze is another quality opponent, but fighting in his home country as a pretty hefty favorite, this is a fight Allen has to have.
Giga is 9-1 in his first ten UFC bouts. He rebounded from a unanimous decision defeat to Calvin Kattar in January 2022 to take a unanimous decision from Alex Caceres last August. Although he swept the scorecards in the Caceres bout, the striking numbers were virtually even. That's simply not going to get the job done against Allen in enemy territory.
Allen is a very competent striker who has proven too tough for his own good at times. He's exceptional at defending himself in the stand-up, often avoiding return fire without getting clipped at all. He's comfortable in the pocket and willing to engage, sometimes to his detriment.
He's going to be the smaller man against Giga, giving up four inches in both height and reach, so it's imperative he remain tight to his opponent if he hopes to win the striking exchanges between the two.
A former pro kickboxer, Chikadze will be more than happy if this turns into a stand-up affair. He's very technical on the feet and has power, although his secondary offensive skills are lacking.
Allen should try to get this fight to the mat. He's the better grappler of the two by a wide margin. He's not much of a wrestler, having landed three total takedowns in his past seven fights, but one well-timed shot could very easily turn the tide in what, again, projects as a close bout.
I don't love the price tag by any means and think Giga is a perfectly live underdog, but Allen has the more well-rounded game, will have the crowd behind him and is in need of a win in the worst way. He's the pick.
THE PICK: Allen
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood (19-6-0) v. Daniel Pineda (28-15-0, 3NC)
DK Salaries: Wood ($9,500), Pineda ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Wood (-425), Pineda (+330)
THE PICK: Wood
Women's Strawweight
Molly McCann (14-6-0) v. Bruna Brasil (9-4-1)
DK Salaries: McCann ($9,200), Brasil ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: McCann (-345), Brasil (+275)
THE PICK: McCann
Heavyweight
Michael Parkin (9-0-0) v. Lukasz Brzeski (9-4-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Parkin ($9,100), Brzeski ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Parkin (-280), Brzeski (+225)
THE PICK: Parkin
Welterweight
Oban Elliott (10-2-0) v. Preston Parsons (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Elliott ($7,600), Parsons ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Elliott (+120), Parsons (-140)
THE PICK: Elliott
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan (10-1-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (15-5-0)
DK Salaries: Duncan ($8,300), Rodrigues ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Duncan (-140), Rodrigues (+120)
THE PICK: Duncan
Welterweight
Sam Patterson (11-2-1) v. Kiefer Crosbie (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Patterson ($9,300), Crosbie ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Patterson (-375), Crosbie (+295)
THE PICK: Patterson
Light Heavyweight
Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) v. Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0)
DK Salaries: Bukauskas ($8,500), Prachnio ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Bukauskas (-160), Prachnio (+135)
THE PICK: Bukauskas
Bantamweight
Caolan Loughran (9-1-0) v. Jake Hadley (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Loughran (-230), Hadley (+190)
THE PICK: Loughran
Women's Strawweight
Shauna Bannon (5-1-0) v. Alice Ardelean (9-5-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Bannon (-210), Ardelean (+175)
THE PICK: Bannon
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 304 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
