DraftKings MMA: UFC Sacramento Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Sacramento Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The UFC has stacked the card with plenty of their youngest stars to go along with a hearty dose of hometown favorites for Saturday's card from Sacramento.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

(Please note that DraftKings has altered their scoring system. The new point values are listed below and the rosters will now expand from 5 to 6 fighters).

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +3 PT
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Women's Strawweight

Paige VanZant (7-2-0) v. Michelle Waterson (13-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: VanZant ($8,300), Waterson ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: VanZant (-115), Waterson (-105)

While this is a quality fight, it isn't the type of elite contest that one would normally associate with the main event of a big FOX card. VanZant is amongst the most popular fighters in the company, but the vast majority of that popularity is due to her pursuits outside of the Octagon. PVZ's performances inside of the cage have been mixed. Her record with the company is 4-1, but she has been inconsistent for the majority of her young career, and she struggles with technique at times. It's to be expected from a girl who is just 22 years old, but her issues beg the question: Is the UFC pushing her too fast? VanZant's biggest asset remains her pace. She seemingly never gets tired, and that's a massive advantage for any fight that is scheduled for five rounds. I'm still not entirely convinced that she will ever be a top fighter in the UFC's women's strawweight division, but if a fighter has more energy than their opponents later in fights, they'll win many fights that they probably shouldn't.

Waterson is probably the best atomweight (105 pounds) fighter in the world, but the UFC doesn't have an atomweight division and they are never going to, so Waterson is forced to fight at strawweight. She made her UFC debut last July and submitted Angela Magana in Round 1. That win doesn't tell us a whole lot because Magana is terrible, but it was nice to see her get off to a good start with her new employer after years of being one of the most successful fighters in Invicta history. Waterson was expected to fight Tecia Torres last November, but she had to withdraw due to a knee injury and hasn't been seen since. The Karate Hottie has limited power (as do most strawweights), but she is an elite submission specialist. Her crafty mat skills should play pretty well against what figures to be constant pressure from PVZ.

The only time in her career that VanZant fought an upper-echelon fighter (Rose Namajunas almost exactly a year ago), she was obliterated. I'm sure she's made significant strides in the gym since then, but Waterson is being underrated in this fight. I understand the UFC's desire to capitalize on PVZ's mainstream popularity, but they are seriously risking damaging her long-term potential by placing her in fights like this. As long as the time off hasn't damaged Waterson at all, I think she wins.

THE PICK: Waterson

Co-Main Event – Welterweight

Sage Northcutt (8-1-0) v. Mickey Gall (3-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Northcutt ($8,000), Gall ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Northcutt (+120), Gall (-140)

This is another bit of curious matchmaking. The UFC does the best they can to try to build up young stars whenever possible, but booking a fight like this could serious damage the long-term potential of the guy that loses.

Sage looked like a world-beater in his first two UFC fights, but he lost to Bryan Barberena in his third bout, and he looked mediocre in his win over Enrique Marin in July. Northcutt is a freak athlete. The amount of fighters on the UFC roster that possess his explosiveness can be counted on one hand. Much like VanZant, however, he makes plenty of rookie mistakes that are the result of inexperience. Simply put, he tries to do too much at times. This will be corrected over time, but we have to keep in mind that this is a kid who won't turn 21 until March. His long-term ceiling is through the roof, but there are going to be bumps in the road along the way.

Gall has all of three professional fighters under his belt. He was given the opportunity of a lifetime when he fought an overmatched CM Punk in early September and he took full advantage. Gall destroyed Punk in 134 seconds and then proceeds to cut one heck of a promo in which he called out Northcutt. He is going to get his wish on Saturday. Gall has a wrestling background, underrated power, and all three of his fights have ended with submission victories. I don't think he is quite the overall athlete that Sage is, but he may very well have the better-rounded game, at least at this point in their respective careers.

This is a very difficult fight to pick since we have limited information on Northcutt and virtually no information on Gall. Gall's win over Punk told us nothing because Punk shouldn't be fighting in the UFC. I would wager that Northcutt's long-term ceiling is higher because he is more than four years younger than Gall, but I haven't seen enough of Gall to say that either man is better than this other right now. I'm taking Gall, but this is a fight I advocate staying away from if possible.

THE PICK: Gall

Bantamweight

Urijah Faber (33-10-0) v. Brad Pickett (26-12-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Faber ($9,600), Pickett ($6,000)
Vegas Odds: Faber (-440), Pickett (+350)

This will be the final fight in the long and storied career of The California Kid. Faber made his professional debut more than 13 years ago, and he has been one of the most popular fighters in the WEC/UFC for nearly a decade. Faber is 1-3 in his last four fights and has lost two straight -- unthinkable numbers for a guy who was one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world for a long, long time. Faber is still a well above-average bantamweight, but he isn't a title contender anymore and he knows that. It's actually refreshing to see a fighter who knows when it's time to walk away.

At age 38, Pickett is another fighter who is just about at the finish line. He is 1-4 in his last five fights, and all the wars that he has been involved in over the years are starting to take their toll. Pickett is literally amongst the toughest human beings on the planet, but he has always been limited athletically and that is even more noticeable as he ages. I actually don't think it's completely out of the realm of possibility that Pickett retires also after this fight, but he may prefer to have one more fight closer to his native London before stepping aside.

While Faber isn't the fighter he once was, I think his pace, even at age 37, will be too much for Pickett. On top of that, is there really anyone out there who thinks we aren't going to see the very best from Urijah in the final fight of his career in front of his hometown fans?

THE PICK: Faber

Welterweight

Alan Jouban (14-4-0) v. Mike Perry (9-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Jouban ($7,700), Perry ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Jouban (+115), Perry (-135)

These aren't the two best fighters on the card, but this is certainly the early betting line favorite for Fight of the Night. Both Jouban and Perry -- Perry especially -- are pure strikers who throw tons of punches without regard for their own safety. It makes for an entertaining contest.

Jouban is 4-1 in his last five fights, and his only loss came against Albert Tumenov, who may be the best pure striker in the division. Jouban has the ability to mix in a takedown here and there, but he doesn't go that route very often. His footwork is generally on point, but his fighting style lends itself to Jouban taking a bunch of punishment on the feet. He's faced better competition than Perry over the course of his career, so he has that going for him.

Perry has exhibited a ton of power in his hands over the course of his first two UFC fights, but if he fights with the same aggressiveness and quite frankly, carelessness, as he did in those fights against better opponents, he's going to lose. Perry proved in his last fight against Danny Roberts in October that he has quite a chin on him, which is a necessity if you are going to fight with no regard for your own safety. Perry has exhibited some great striking skills thus far, but we haven't seen him do anything else.

I like this fight from a DraftKings perspective because with the way these guys throw; I have a hard time believing that the fight will see the final bell. In close fights like this in which neither guy appears to have a clear edge, I usually take the underdog simply because the payoff is bigger.

THE PICK: Jouban

Other Bouts

Light Heavyweight

Henrique da Silva (12-0-0) v. Paul Craig (8-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: da Silva ($9,000), Craig ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: da Silva (-225), Craig (+185)
THE PICK: da Silva

Featherweight

Cole Miller (21-10-0, 1NC) v. Mizuto Hirota (18-7-2)
DraftKings Salaries: Miller ($8,100), Hirota ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Miller (+100), Hirota (-120)
THE PICK: Miller

Welterweight

Bryan Barberena (12-3-0) v. Colby Covington (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Barberena ($7,300), Covington ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Barberena (+300), Covington (-360)
THE PICK: Covington

Welterweight

James Moontasri (9-4-0) v. Alex Morono (12-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Moontasri ($7,800), Morono ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Moontasri (-105), Morono (-115)
THE PICK: Morono

Lightweight

Josh Emmett (10-0-0) v. Scott Holtzman (9-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Emmett ($8,700), Holtzman ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Emmett (-190), Holtzman (+165)
THE PICK: Emmett

Women's Bantamweight

Leslie Smith (8-7-1) v. Irene Aldana (7-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Smith ($7,100), Aldana ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Smith (+255), Aldana (-310)
THE PICK: Aldana

Bantamweight

Eddie Wineland (22-11-1) v. Takeya Mizugaki (21-10-2)
DraftKings Salaries: Wineland ($8,800), Mizugaki ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Wineland (-220), Mizugaki (+180)
THE PICK: Mizugaki

Flyweight

Hector Sandoval (12-3-0) v. Fredy Serrano (3-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Sandoval ($8,100), Serrano ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Sandoval (+100), Serrano (-120)
THE PICK: Serrano

Welterweight

Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1) v. Sultan Aliev (13-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Velickovic ($8,600), Aliev ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Velickovic (-155), Aliev (+135)
THE PICK: Velickovic

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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