NHL PrizePicks Today: Top NHL Player Props & Picks for April 20 – Best Plays

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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.

Not Sure How to Capitalize on TOI: Check out our PrizePicks Time On Ice 101

Not Sure How to Capitalize on TOI: Check out our PrizePicks Time On Ice 101

Playoff Notes

Before we get to the picks, a few things to keep in mind during the playoffs:

OT will not count in the playoffs. This might be a shock to those who jumped into TOI this season. But for those who've been playing it for a few years, you're used to overtime being excluded. This seems like a big change, though it shouldn't affect that many plays - or, at least, the wins and losses should balance out. Yes, I know, I complain a lot about OT, and you'd think it's been a negative for me, though it probably evened out overall. This doesn't change my strategy at all. If the matchups are tight, that probably means the star players have already gone over their numbers. 

Things can get weird in the playoffs. When a game starts to go the wrong way, you'll often see players attempting to "send a message". What that means for us is sometimes you'll have someone get a game misconduct to kill any over possibility. It seems weird, as it rarely happens during the regular season, but the playoffs are different. If you have an over and your player is down a couple of goals late on, there's a chance you lose him to a misconduct. I've had it happen a few times, including one two years ago where I had Drew Doughty going over, and he was well ahead of pace, only to pick up a 10-minute penalty halfway through the third period. I'm not saying it's going to happen every night, though it'll come up at some point. Hopefully, our recommendations won't be involved. 

Teams won't always go all-in to get the win. It sounds counterintuitive, but coaches don't want to chase after a lost cause during a seven-game series. At some point, a coach must decide if it's worth going all-in to win. And if he decides it's not worth it, then the star players aren't going back on the ice to save their legs and to avoid any shenanigans that happen at the end of playoff games. 

All the above are reasons to take the less option more frequently in the postseason until you realize that the stars are generally going to receive more ice time than normal from the first two periods - and the third if the score line is tight. It's a balancing act, and I'll do my best to figure out where these plays are going to land each night. 

Analyzing NHL Time on Ice PrizePicks Plays

Card Overview: Working ourselves into the playoffs here, I can tell it's already a little different than I anticipated. For starters, the script is playing much more into the results than what we saw in the regular season. Cale Makar, for instance, might be fully script dependent until Colorado finds itself in a must-win game or at minimum, meets up with an opponent that could give them trouble. Mikhail Sergachev's minutes last night didn't seem to make much sense as he was under 25 minutes in a tight game, one which the Mammoth trailed for the final 10 minutes. Rasmus Dahlin barely got over 24 minutes, even though the Sabres trailed almost the entire game. 

This could be a result of the teams feeling their way into the series. Yes, it's the playoffs, but it's still just Game 1, and while every team wants to win the first game, you also don't want to go 110% to get there. That will likely change, however, as teams get ahead or behind in the series. 

BUILDING BLOCKS

Quinn Hughes 27.5 at Dallas Stars - 9:30 p.m. ET (MORE) 

I didn't like losing on Hughes on Saturday, but it did set us up for a great spot tonight. Hughes only put in 24.5 minutes on Saturday, but that was entirely due to the blowout by the Wild. If that game stays within two goals, he gets there with ease. Hughes was on the ice for nearly 10 minutes in the first period, but the Wild couldn't stop scoring in the 2nd period, and before you knew it, they were up 4-0. His minutes were dialed back immediately after getting that 4th goal. Unless we get another blowout tonight, Hughes should hit this number. This is the best play on the board tonight. 

Erik Karlsson 24.25 vs. Philadelphia Flyers - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE) 

Karlsson is new to this article as I've yet to use him in this space this season. I do have some experience with him over the years, though, so this isn't entirely new territory for me. Karlsson played almost 26 minutes in Game 1, mostly a neutral script, which is a good sign for tonight. The thing I like about Karlsson is that he's on both PP1 and PK1, so anytime there is a penalty, he's back on the ice. Karlsson was also clearly the top dog of the defensive unit in Game 1, as only one other defenseman was over 20 minutes on Saturday. 

Miro Heiskanen 25 vs. Minnesota Wild  - 9:30 p.m. ET (MORE) 

Like Hughes, Heiskanen would have also gone over had Game 1 been more competitive. It was Heiskanen's first game back from injury, so it looked like Dallas was keeping his minutes in check early, but as the Stars got behind, his minutes increased, only to fall off when the game got out of hand. Keep in mind that Game 1 turned into a blowout in the 2nd period, which changed everything. This was only a tight game for about 25 minutes. With a game under his belt, I would expect Dallas to get Heiskanen back to his full allotment of minutes tonight. If this game stays tight, we should get this play with relative ease, as Dallas can't afford to lose the first two games of this series at home.  

SCRIPT/LINE/INJURY DEPENDENT

Thomas Chabot 25.75 at Carolina Hurricanes - 7:35 p.m. ET (MORE) 

The Senators have been decimated by injuries to their defense all season, and they couldn't even get through Game 1 without losing another guy. This time, it was Artem Zub, who left in the first period on Saturday and did not return. If Zub is out, that leaves Chabot and Jake Sanderson to carry a heavy load. The morning skate lines had Nikolas Matinpalo pairing up with Sanderson, but Matinpalo averaged under 16 minutes per game this season, so I can't imagine that Ottawa will push him over 20 minutes tonight, which means that Chabot's pair will likely get the bulk of the even-strength minutes. That and Zub were on PK1, so Chabot might be moved from PK2 to PK1 tonight. If, for some reason, Zub is active, however, then this play goes from more to less in a heartbeat, so keep an eye on the news. 

John Carlson 24.5 at Edmonton Oilers - 10:00 p.m. ET (MORE) 

This is probably closer to a building block pick than a script-dependent play, but I put it down here to be safe. Carlson's minutes were throttled back during the final few games of the season, but I think that was in an effort to keep him fresh for the playoffs. There seems to be an either-or relationship between Carlson and Jackson LaCombe in that one or the other seems to get the bulk of the minutes on a given night, but considering Carlson has the experience edge, I think that the Ducks are going to lean on him tonight and maybe the whole series. Hopefully we'll see Anaheim in a trail script, which would ensure Carlson getting there tonight, but I think even a close game should be enough.