This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Hockey series.
Halfway through the week, halfway through October, and…far from halfway through the NHL season. I'm still at the point where I am giving the team numbers from last season more, or at least equal, weight when it comes to predictions. That pivot will come soon, but I kind of prefer every team to have played a half-dozen games or so before I flip the switch. There are two NHL games Wednesday, so it's a light night. Still, here are my players to target, and to avoid, for your DFS matchups.
GOALIE
Tristan Jarry, PIT at DET ($30): This was tough. Of the four teams in action Wednesday, I think the Capitals have the worst offense, but I'm not going to feel good rostering Joonas Korpisalo or Anton Forsberg. Jarry, though, has a .944 save percentage through two starts this season. I wouldn't call him the pinnacle of consistency, but all in all he has a career .914 save percentage. The Red Wings made a few changes this offseason, and the goals have come for them thus far. However, since the start of last season they've averaged 2.94 goals and 28.4 shots on net per game, which is at least an indication that some real growth is necessary for success this year.
GOALIE TO AVOID
Darcy Kuemper, WAS at OTT ($27): Proud papa Kuemper looked strong in his first start of the season, making 38 saves on 40 shots in a shootout win. Of course, there is also the concern about the fact the Capitals' defense left him to face 40 shots. The Senators have averaged 33.5 shots on net per game since the start of last season, and any team with Brady Tkachuk is a threat to keep any goalie busy.
CENTER
Tim Stutzle, OTT vs. WAS ($24): There's not much in the way of sleeper value at center Wednesday, but this season Stutzle could be better than any center you go with. Yes, that includes Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The German had 90 points last year, and the 21-year-old has at least one point and three shots on net in every game this season. Washington's defense has looked porous, and Kuemper did have a .908 save percentage last year, even if he was strong in his first outing of this year.
CENTER TO AVOID
J.T. Compher, DET vs. PIT ($17): Newly-minted Wing Compher has a three-game point streak to start the season. However, he's only put five shots on net, and his 20.0 shooting percentage will dip. It's also noteworthy that Compher does not have a sizable power-play role. Jarry's strong start to the season, including a shutout against the Capitals, is a reminder that he had a .919 save percentage two years ago.
WING
Reilly Smith, PIT at DET ($18): Smith didn't have a point in his first game with the Penguins, but he put four shots on goal, which was encouraging. Since then he has eight more shots on net, but has also added three points to his stat sheet. Ville Husso did not take to being the lead goalie for the Wings last season, as he had an .896 save percentage. Unfortunately for him, this year he's off to a worse start than that, as he has an .863 save percentage.
Vladimir Tarasenko, OTT vs. WAS ($18): Tarasenko is playing the fewest minutes of his career so far with his new team in Canada's capital, but he's also tallied two points in each of his last two games. Plus, while his ice time is down, he's still averaged 2:29 per contest with the extra man. I have questions about this Washington roster, and with a new coaching staff in town the penalty kill could look entirely different. Also, as I noted, Kuemper had a .908 save percentage last year.
WINGS TO AVOID
Tom Wilson, WAS at OTT ($17): The Capitals' offense has been ice cold to start the season, so this is a bet against them on the road and less a bet on Ottawa's goaltending duo. Wilson signed a seven-year extension this offseason, but has started this year with more penalty minutes (seven) then shots on net (three). Until the Capitals show signs of life, I'm not trusting any of their secondary players.
David Perron, DET vs. PIT ($16): Perron had 56 points in his first season with the Red Wings, but he doesn't have a point yet this year. His shots on net have also gone down game by game, from three to two to one. Perron has already been moved off the top line, and he may be in a power-play specialist role this year. Now, since the start of last season the Penguins have the 17th-ranked penalty kill, but if Jarry's .944 save percentage this year is a sign that he will be in form, that number will likely rise.
DEFENSE
Kris Letang, PIT at DET ($22): Letang has barely seen any power-play time with Erik Karlsson in town, which on the surface is concerning. On the other hand, he's averaged 24:51 per game in ice time, which is exactly what he averaged last year. Plus, the veteran has three points and six shots on net through three games. Maybe he can still contribute even without his usual time with the extra man. As I noted, Husso has a sub-.900 save percentage since signing on with the Red Wings, including an .863 save percentage this year.
John Carlson, WAS at OTT ($20): Carlson, at least, has delivered what is expected of him for Washington. He has an assist and five shots on net. The veteran defenseman has also averaged 25:34 in ice time, including 4:12 with the extra man. Joonas Korpisalo, who has a career .904 save percentage, will likely be in net for the Senators.
DEFENSE TO AVOID
Moritz Seider, DET vs. PIT ($17): Obviously, I have a little concern about Jarry's strong start to the season paired with his career .914 save percentage. I feel quite good about two of these matchups, and solid about another, which leaves Seider as less enticing at this salary. He also only has one shot on net in each of his last two games, for what it's worth.
Rasmus Sandin, WAS at OTT ($15): Sandin turned heads with 15 points in 19 games after being dealt to the Capitals. That has not proven sustainable just yet. He's still seeing plenty of playing time – 22:52 per game – but all he has to show for it is one shot on net. A healthy Carlson has left Sandin with a different role, and he hasn't been thriving in it thus far.
